Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: China Open 2025

Sinner is yet to lose a match against the Australian in 10 meetings.

Jannik Sinner showed up for his quarter-final match against Fabian Marozsan following a hard-fought win over Terence Atmane in the second round. The Italian was not willing to go through another three set match as he overcame a late surge from the Hungarian to win 6-1, 7-5.

After breezing through the opening set in 27 minutes, Sinner required double the time to win the second set. The Italian was down 4-5 in the second set when he stepped up and reeled off three games in a row to secure his spot in the last four of the China Open for the third consecutive time.

Sinner’s victory over Marozsan gave him his 40th match win of the season, which moves him one step closer to a title round appearance in Beijing.

Winner winner, Sinner Sinner 🤝@janniksin defeats Marozsan 6-1 7-5 to claim his 40th tour-level victory of the season and return to the Beijing final four.@chinaopen | #2025ChinaOpen pic.twitter.com/wABHRHG170

— ATP Tour (@atptour) September 29, 2025

The Italian No. 2 seed will now play Alex de Minaur, who advanced after Jakub Mensik retired in the opening set. Mensik was trailing 4-1 when he sought a medical timeout to tend to his knee. But it became obvious that he could not continue.

Mensik threw in the towel thirty minutes into their quarter-final match to send the Australian into his fourth semi-final of the season.

De Minaur was stretched to three sets by lucky loser Arthur Rinderknech in the round of 16 before prevailing 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(2) in two hours and 16 minutes. It was the 26-year-old Australian’s first career meeting with the Frenchman.

Also Read: Jannik Sinner earns 200th hard-court victory, joins elite club of active players

Match details

• Tournament: China Open 2025
• Round: Semi-finals
• Date: September 29
• Venue: Beijing, China
• Surface: Hard Court

​​Preview

Alex de Minaur’s passage to the semi-finals at the cost of Jakub Mensik helps Sinner immensely. The Italian could not have asked for a better opponent. Sinner is 10-0 against De Minaur in the head-to-head. The last time the Australian took a set off the top-seeded Italian was at an ATP 250 event in Bulgaria in 2020.

Learner Tien advanced to the last four after the second retirement of the day when Musetti pulled out, trailing 3-0 in the deciding set. The American was taken the second set 6-3 after losing the first 4-6 to the 23-year-old Italian and No. 4 seed.

Tien will face off against Daniil Medvedev in the second semi-final after the Russian defeated Alexander Zverev in straight sets, 6-3, 6-3. Medvedev claimed his 14th win over Zverev and avenged his loss to the German in Halle in June.

Form

• Jannik Sinner: W-W-W-L-W
• Alex de Minaur: W-W-W-W-L

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 10
• Jannik Sinner: 10
• Alex de Minaur: 0

Stats

Jannik Sinner

• Sinner has a 40-5 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Sinner has a 12-1 win-loss record in Beijing
• Sinner has won 80% of matches played on hard courts

Alex de Minaur

• De Minaur has a 47-17 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• De Minaur has a 4-1 win-loss record in Beijing
• De Minaur has won 65% of matches played on hard courts

Also Read: Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Japan Open 2025

Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Sinner -750, De Minaur +560
• Spread: Sinner -4.5 (-155), De Minaur +5.5 (-136)
• Total Games: Over 19.5 (-124), Under 19.5 (-103)
• 1st Set Winner: Sinner -450, De Minaur +340
• 1st Set Total Games: Over 9.5 (+125), Under 9.5 (-159)

Match prediction

Jannik Sinner and Alex de Minaur will face off in Beijing with a spot in the title round at stake. The rivalry between Sinner and De Minaur has historically favoured the Italian.

The Australian lived up to his nickname in the Laver Cup, securing back-to-back straight-set wins against Jakub Mensik and Alexander Zverev to aid Team World’s efforts at winning the competition.

The recent improvement shown by De Minaur will keep Sinner on his toes ahead of their semi-final meeting. Yet, the daunting obstacle for the World No. 8 will be the significant gap in favour of Sinner in their head-to-head.

The Australian, well known for his court coverage and agility, can disrupt Sinner’s rhythm. However, the Italian is likely to reply in kind, and his reputation for long rallies precedes him. Sinner will likely emerge victorious once again and reinforce his domination over De Minaur yet again.

Result: Jannik Sinner to win in three sets.

Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur, semi-final match at the China Open 2025?

The semi-final will be available for Indian viewers on Discovery India. American viewers can tune in to the Tennis Channel, while Sky UK will broadcast the quarter-final meeting for viewers within the United Kingdom.

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