Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: ATP Finals 2025

Anirudh, an engineer by training, has been contributing to Khel Now since 2024. He loves crafting inspiring stories.

Published at :November 15, 2025 at 2:13 PM

Modified at :November 15, 2025 at 2:13 PM

Jannik Sinner leads head-to-head record 12-0 against Alex de Minaur.

The Italian sensation will take on the Australian star Alex de Minaur in the semi-finals at the ATP Finals 2025 on November 15, Saturday. Check the Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur prediction below.

The defending champion has controlled every moment in Turin, bringing the same ruthless efficiency that has defined his rise over the past two seasons.

Fresh off a composed 6-3, 7-6 win over Ben Shelton, the Italian heads into Saturday’s clash aiming for a third straight final at the year-end championship. Across the net stands Alex de Minaur, whose path to the final four has been nothing short of dramatic.

From feeling “in a dark place” after a collapse against Lorenzo Musetti to believing he was already eliminated, the Australian staged a fierce resurgence with a straight-sets win over Taylor Fritz before Carlos Alcaraz’s victory over Musetti sealed his qualification.

Match details

Tournament: ATP Finals
Round: Semi-Final
Date: November 15
Venue: Nito, Italy
Surface: Hard Court Indoors

Undefeated in the Bjorn Borg Group 🤹‍♂️Defending champion @janniksin extends his win streak on indoor hard courts to 29 matches! #NittoATPFinals pic.twitter.com/ej5oFCev5A
— ATP Tour (@atptour) November 14, 2025

Preview

This semi-final pits Sinner’s overwhelming firepower and indoor mastery against De Minaur’s counterpunching grit.

The Italian leads their head-to-head 12–0, winning 27 of 29 sets and dominating every matchup across all surfaces, particularly indoors where his ball-striking penetrates through De Minaur’s defenses with ease.

Their recent meetings reveal the story, as Sinner prevailed in straight-sets, in Vienna and Beijing, along with a crushing performance at the 2025 Australian Open where Sinner conceded just six games.

For De Minaur, this match arrives not just as a semifinal but as another mental barrier to confront. His frustrations this season, especially the Musetti collapse and an extended drought against top-10 players, have tested him deeply.

Also Read: ‘That cloud will follow him’: Novak Djokovic backs Jannik Sinner in doping case at Piers Morgan interview

Yet his win over Fritz showed the best version of his aggressive front-foot tennis, and his emotional turnaround has been one of the week’s most compelling storylines.

Good things come to those who wait 😈A brilliant @alexdeminaur dazzles his way to a first ever win at the #NittoATPFinals, defeating Fritz 7-6(3) 6-3! pic.twitter.com/ajfCQKgop5
— ATP Tour (@atptour) November 13, 2025

Sinner, meanwhile, is operating with imposing clarity and rhythm. He has won 16 consecutive sets at the ATP Finals, has gone 40-3 on hard courts over the past year, and has been broken only sparingly in Turin.

With the home crowd behind him, the world No. 2 steps into this semifinal as a clear favourite and with a possible rematch against Carlos Alcaraz looming.

Form

Jannik Sinner: W-W-W-W-W
Alex de Minaur: W-L-L-L-W

Head-to-head record

Matches: 12
Jannik Sinner: 12
Alex de Minaur: 0

Stats

Jannik Sinner

Sinner has a 55-6 win-loss record in the 2025 season
Sinner has a 12-2 win-loss record in year-end finals
Sinner has won 80% of matches played on hard courts

Alex de Minaur

de Minaur has a 57-23 win-loss record in the 2025 season
de Minaur has a 1-5 win-loss record in year-end finals
de Minaur has won 68% of matches played on hard courts

Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur: Betting tips and odds

Moneyline: Sinner -1115, de Minaur +750
Spread: Sinner -4.5 (-165), de Minaur +5.5 (-150)
Total Games: Over 20.5 (-103), Under 20.5 (-122)
1st Set Winner: Sinner -590, de Minaur +450
1st Set Total Games: Over 9.5 (+112), Under 9.5 (-139)

Match prediction

De Minaur’s resilience to reach the semifinals deserves credit, but toppling Sinner indoors remains one of the toughest tasks in men’s tennis.

The Italian’s power, precision, and mental sharpness consistently overwhelm this matchup, and nothing in their recent form suggests a shift.

Expect Sinner to control the exchanges and extend his dominance over the Australian, thereby advancing confidently into yet another ATP final.

Result: Jannik Sinner to win in straight sets.

Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur, round-robin match at ATP Finals 2025?

This clash will be available for Indian viewers on the Sony Network. Viewers in the UK can tune in to Sky UK, while American audiences can watch the action unfold on Tennis Channel.

What is the head-to-head record between Sinner and Minaur?

Sinner leads the rivalry 12–0, having dominated nearly every meeting across surfaces.

When and where is the semifinal being played?

The match takes place on November 15 at the Pala Alpitour in Turin, Italy, on indoor hard courts.

How has Sinner performed so far in the 2025 ATP Finals?

Sinner has won all three group-stage matches without dropping a set and is on a 29-match indoor hard-court winning streak.

How did Alex de Minaur reach the semifinals?

After a tough loss to Musetti, de Minaur rebounded with a strong win over Taylor Fritz, and Carlos Alcaraz’s victory later confirmed his qualification.

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Aniruddh Seshadri

Aniruddh Seshadri Iyer is a passionate sports journalist at Khel Now, specializing in tennis and Olympic sports. An engineer by training, he found his storytelling passion through iconic Grand Slam and Olympic moments. Known for sharp analysis and insightful coverage, he draws inspiration from Novak Djokovic’s resilience. Outside journalism, he enjoys reading, traveling, and playing the guitar.