Jannik Sinner vs Denis Shapovalov prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: US Open 2025

Denis Shapovalov leads Jannik Sinner in the head-to-head leading up to their third-round clash.

The path taken by Jannik Sinner and Denis Shapovalov to the third round at the US Open 2025 is a study in contrasts.

ATP World No. 1, Sinner, rolled past Alexei Popyrin in the second round, with another straight set win 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 in two hours to bring up his 14th hard court victory of the season.

Following his 6-1, 6-1, 6-2 opening round win over Vit Kopriva, the Italian recorded his 18th win in New York to equal Matteo Berrettini for the most wins in men’s singles US Open amongst Italians in the Open Era.

18 – Jannik Sinner (18) has equalled Matteo Berrettini for the most wins in Men’s Singles US Open amongst Italians during the Open Era. Leader. #USOpen | @usopen @atptour @ATPMediaInfo pic.twitter.com/XEolc8rx1W

— OptaAce (@OptaAce) August 26, 2025

It was another clinical performance by the top seed that saw him convert five break-point opportunities while giving none away to his Australian rival. Popyrin carved out five breakpoint chances against Sinner but was unable to convert.

Sinner goes on to face Canadian Denis Shapovalov in the third round. Shapovalov overcame Sinner in their only previous meeting at the 2021 Australian Open. Shapovalov won that encounter in five sets –  3-6, 6-3, 6-2, 4-6, 6-4.

Shapovalov made the third round after a lengthy back-and-forth with French wildcard Valentin Royer. The 24-year-old Royer, making his main draw debut at Flushing Meadows, pushed Shapovalov to four sets. The Canadian took three hours and 36 minutes to subdue the unseeded Frenchman, 7-6 (6), 3-6, 7-6 (4), 6-3.

The Canadian complicated matters with 43 unforced errors and 15 double faults in an error-filled match. Big-serving Shapovalov pulled through thanks largely to his 29 aces and 71 winners to set up a rematch with Sinner.  

Match details

• Tournament: US Open 2025
• Round: Third Round
• Date: August 30
• Venue: USTA Billie Jean King Tennis Centre, New York, United States
• Surface: Hard

ALSO READ: US Open 2025: Updated schedule, fixtures, results, & live streaming details

Preview

Jannik Sinner will resume his pursuit of a fifth career Grand Slam title on Saturday against Shapovalov, who returned to the third round for the first time since 2022. The Italian already has a US Open title under his belt, having won last year.  Shapovalov is still holding out for a deep run at Flushing Meadows, with his best result at the venue being the  quarter-final appearance back in 2020.  

Sinner has matched a Roger Federer record for most wins from their first 50 hard-court Grand Slam matches. The Italian and the Swiss have an identical record on the surface at 41-9 after 50 matches. The World No. 1 achieved the milestone on Thursday after defeating Alexei Popyrin in straight sets to even their head-to-head at 1-1.

Roger Federer went 41-9 in his first 50 Grand Slam hardcourt matches.Jannik Sinner went 41-9 in his first 50 Grand Slam hardcourt matches.

— US Open Tennis (@usopen) August 28, 2025

The Italian remains on track to cross paths with No. 14 seed Tommy Paul in round four, followed by a potential quarter-final clash with No. 10 seed and fellow Italian Lorenzo Musetti.

Paul’s compatriot, Ben Shelton, edged closer to a quarter-final face-off against Carlos Alcaraz following a 6-4, 6-2, 6-4 win over Pablo Carreno Busta. Shelton was later ambushed by his girlfriend, Trinity Rodman, during the press conference. She wanted to know why his serves were on the ‘slow side,’ not having crossed the 135 mph mark in his second-round match.

Form

• Jannik Sinner: W-W-L-W-W
• Denis Shapovalov: W-W-L-L-L

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 1
• Jannik Sinner: 0
• Denis Shapovalov: 1

Stats

Jannik Sinner:

• Sinner has a 33-4 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Sinner has a 19-5 win-loss record in New York.
• Sinner has won 80% of matches played on hard courts.

Denis Shapovalov:

• Shapovalov has a 21-16 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Shapovalov has a 19-7 win-loss record in New York.
• Shapovalov has won 57% of matches played on hard courts.

Jannik Sinner vs Denis Shapovalov: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Sinner -2500, Shapovalov +1280.
• Spread: Sinner -7.5 (-134), Shapovalov +8.5 (-128).
• Total Sets: Over 30.5 (-110), Under 31.5 (-121).
• 1st Set Winner: Sinner -625, Shapovalov +400.
• 1st Set Total Games: Over 9.5 (+102), Under 9.5 (-134).

ALSO READ: US Open 2025: All you need to know about prize money & points on offer

Match Prediction

Sinner has a 14-1 hard court win-loss record in the 2025 season as he heads into his scheduled third round match against Shapovalov. The Italian is on a 23-match-winning streak at hard court majors since winning the 2024 Australian Open. The Italian top seed delivered another composed performance in his second-round victory over Alexei Popyrin.

The upcoming match against Shapovalov could have Sinner digging deeper into his bag of tricks to counter the big-serving Canadian. Though Shapovalov is 1-0 against the Italian, the win came against Sinner when he hadn’t won a major title yet, and he was ranked outside the Top 30.

The left-handed Canadian’s booming serve and powerful forehand could just unsettle Sinner enough to sneak in a set or two. Sinner’s 20 unforced errors in his match against Popyrin will be something that would concent the World No. 1.

Result: Sinner will win in four sets.

Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of the third round match between Jannik Sinner and Denis Shapovalov at the US Open 2025?

The third-round match between Jannik Sinner and Denis Shapovalov at the 2025 US Open will be available for Indian viewers on Jio Hotstar. Sky UK and the Tennis Channel will broadcast the Sinner – Shapovalov face-off live within the United Kingdom and the United States, respectively.

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