Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul Highlights, Italian Open 2025: Sinner recovers from a set down to reach maiden final in Rome

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On Thursday evening, Jannik Sinner joined fellow Italian Lorenzo Musetti in the last four at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. The top seed routed Casper Ruud 6-0, 6-1, less than two weeks after the Norwegian won the Madrid ATP 1000 title. It took Sinner just 64 minutes to register his fourth straight win over the Scandinavian. Ruud is yet to beat Sinner on tour after the latest defeat. 

It was the Italian’s 25th consecutive tour-level win. Sinner converted six of nine breakpoints and fired 22 winners as he moves closer to becoming the first home-grown finalist since Antonio Zugarelli in 1977.  No Italian man has won the singles event since Adriano Panatta in 1976.

Sinner’s semi-final rival will be American Tommy Paul, who registered a 7-6(4), 6-3 victory over Hubert Hurkacz in a quarter-final re-match from last season. Paul became the first American man to reach consecutive semi-finals in Rome since Pete Sampras in 1993-94, following his third career win over Hurkacz.

Preview

Jannik Sinner and Lorenzo Musetti are through to the last four in Rome for the first time. Their presence in the semi-finals marks the first time in Masters 1000 history that two Italians have made the last four at the same event.

Sinner’s takedown of a hapless Ruud reduced the World No. 7 to a spectator in their quarter-final match. The last time the Scandinavian lost a set 6-0 was in the 2023 Hamburg Open quarter-finals to Arthur Fils.

Only Francisco Cerundolo managed to put up a fight against Sinner. The Argentine almost won the first set against Sinner, but the Italian player won the first set in a tie-break. Sinner took two hours and 17 minutes to win against Cerundolo..

Tommy Paul quietly worked his way up the men’s draw to find himself in the semi-final. This even as highly fancied Americans, including Taylor Fritz, Frances Tiafoe, and Ben Shelton, failed to make the second week. 

Form

• Jannik Sinner : W-W-W-W-W
• Tommy Paul: W-W-W-W-L

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 4
• Sinner: 3
• Paul: 1

Stats

Jannik Sinner: 

• Sinner has an 11-0 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Sinner has a 13-5 win-loss record in Rome.
• Sinner has won 71% of matches played on clay courts.

Tommy Paul:

• Paul has a 21-7 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Paul has a 9-4 win-loss record in Rome.
• Paul has won 50% of the matches played on clay courts.

Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Sinner -900, Paul  +720.
• Spread: Sinner  -5.5 (-110), Paul +5.5 (-107). 
• Total games: Over 19.5 (-108), Under 19.5 (-117).

Match Prediction

Tommy Paul is No. 12 in the ATP Live Rankings, and a return to the top ten is guaranteed if he can make the title round. Paul must first find a way to get past Sinner, who looks like he never left. Sinner’s comprehensive victory against Ruud makes him the obvious candidate to become the first men’s singles champion in Rome in nearly 50 years.   

All that stands between Tommy Paul and becoming the first American since Andre Agassi to make the Italian Open finals is World No. 1 Jannik Sinner. The matches between the duo have always been a bit of a grind, even their meeting in Eastbourne in 2022, which the American won 6-3, 3-6, 6-3.

Their recent clash in the 2024 US Open was a closely fought affair, with tie-breaks in the opening two sets playing a decisive role in Sinner’s 7-6(3), 7-6(5), 6-1 victory.

Another close-run match is on the cards, with Sinner crossing the finish line once the dust settles. Paul will need to find a way to pull away with an early lead if he is to have a chance to win.

Result: Sinner will win in three sets.

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