Jasmine Paolini vs Peyton Stearns prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Italian Open 2025

Italy’s Jasmine Paolini secures maiden semi-final appearance in Rome.

Only four players remain in the women’s singles draw, and Jasmine Paolini is one of them. The World No. 5 is in her third semi-final of the season, making the last four in Miami and Stuttgart. Paolini ended up losing to Aryna Sabalenka both times. With the Belarusian being ejected from Rome by Qinwen Zheng, the top is one less obstacle for the title.

Paolini registered a 6-7(1), 6-4, 6-2 win over Diana Shnaider and will face unseeded American Peyton Stearns for a place in the finals. She is among the five Italian women who reached the semi-final of Rome. Her doubles partner, Sara Errani, did it in 2014.

Peyton Stearns rode into the spotlight by defeating the No. 5 seed and Australian Open champion Madison Keys, 2-6, 6-2, 7-6(3) in the third round. Since then, Stearns defeated former World No. 1 Naomi Osaka (6-4, 3-6, 7-6(4)) and Elina Svitolina (6-2, 4-6, 7-6(4)) with third-set tiebreaks in both matches.

After Tuesday’s late-night quarter-final win over Svitolina, Stearns joins another first-time Italian Open semi-finalist, Jasmine Paolini, in the last four. It will be the first time Paolini and Stearns face off on tour.

Match Details

• Tournament: Italian Open 2025
• Round: Semi-final
• Date: May 15
• Venue: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy
• Surface: Clay

Preview

Paolini is the oldest Italian player to make the last four at the Internazionale d’Italia in the Open Era. The honour of being the first and only Italian woman to win at home in the Open Era goes to Raffaella Reggi. She won the title in 1985 with a 6-4, 6-4 win over American Vicki Nelson-Dunbar. 

Paolini was on the verge of elimination against Shnaider. The Italian blew a 4-0 lead and lost the first set in a tense tiebreak. The Russian had Paolini over a barrel after she took a 4-0 lead but failed to press the advantage. The Italian World No. 5 reeled off the next six games to take the second set, 6-4, and wrapped the third by dropping just two games to seal the win.

Peyton’s breakthrough run in Rome witnessed the 23-year-old make the last four in her Italian Open debut. She earned another slice of history by becoming the first player to win three third-set tiebreaks. 

Stearns assured her dream run continued after the two-hour and 38-minute win over Svitolina, a two-time Italian Open champ. The most significant milestone of Stearns’ evening was becoming the first American woman to make the last four in Rome since Venus Williams in 1998.

Form

• Jasmine Paolini: W-W-W-W-L
• Peyton Stearns: W-W-W-W-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 0
• Jasmine Paolini: 0
• Peyton Stearns: 0

Stats

Jasmine Paolini:

• Paolini has a 20-8 win-loss record in 2025. 
• Paolini has a 6-5 win-loss record in Rome.
• Paolini has a 52% win record on clay.

Peyton Stearns: 

• Stearns has a 16-11 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Stearns is making her debut in Rome.
• Stearns has a 72% win record on clay.  

Jasmine Paolini vs Peyton Stearns: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Paolini -220, Stearns +188.
• Spread: Paolini -3.5 (-118), Stearns +3.5 (+100). 
• Total games: Over 20.5 (-125), Under 21.5 (-118).

Match Prediction

Peyton Stearns demonstrated all the qualities of a seasoned tennis player as she battled through three back-to-back matches that lasted more than two hours. Jasmine Paolini fed on the encouragement from the local fans, rewarding their faith in her by making the last four at the Foro Italico.

Stearns and Paolini had to work hard to get here this week. Safe to say, neither player will throw in the towel in the face of an early setback. After registering comeback wins against Jelena Ostapenko and Diana Shnaider, Paolini will be confident of finding a way past the unseeded Stearns.

While Stearns could cause problems for Paolini, the American’s long matches in the last three rounds could lead to fatigue. The Italian, a two-time Grand Slam finalist, is backed by significant experience, which will favour Paolini as she eyes her first tour-level final since Wimbledon in 2024.

Result: Paolni will win in three sets.

Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of Jasmine Paolini vs Peyton Stearns, semi-final match at the Italian Open 2025?

The semi-final match between Jasmine Paolini and Peyton Stearns at the Italian Open 2025 will be broadcast on the Tennis Channel for viewers in India and the United States. Meanwhile, Sky Sports will air the tournament in the United Kingdom.

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