Lorenzo Musetti vs Gabriel Diallo prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Madrid Open 2025

Gabriel Diallo continues his fairy tale run in Madrid to make the last eight.

Gabriel Diallo is a win away from becoming the second lucky loser to make the semi-finals since the Madrid Open became a part of the ATP calendar in 2002. German Jan-Lennard Struff was the first to reach the milestone in the 2023 edition and ended up reaching the final that year.

Diallo, the 23-year-old Canadian, has made an impressive debut in Madrid. The week is shaping up to be the biggest, having entered the event through the back door after Yoshihito Nishioka withdrew.

The World No. 78 from Montreal survived three match points to get the better of Grigor Dimitrov. Diallo defeated the Bulgarian 5-7, 7-6(7), 6-4 in a scrappy encounter to cross the finish line in two hours and 23 minutes to set up a meeting with Lorenzo Musetti in the last eight.

Musetti is set to break into the top 10, where he will make his debut after a 6-4, 6-2 win over Alex de Minaur on Monday. He will become the sixth Italian to enter the exclusive list in the history of the ATP rankings. The Italian moves up to 3-1 against the Aussie after a second ATP 1000 win of the season over De Minaur after Monte-Carlo. The No. 10 seed is yet to drop a set in the tournament. 

Match Details

• Tournament: Madrid Open 2025 Men’s Singles
• Round: Quarter-final
• Date: May 1
• Venue: Manzanares Park, Madrid, Spain
• Surface: Clay

Preview

Lucky loser Gabriel Diallo is an unlikely quarter-finalist in Spain, where he will take on tenth-seed Lorenzo Musetti for a spot in the last four. Even if Diallo goes no further, he will cap a noteworthy visit to Madrid by moving up 25 places to land at the brink of the ATP Top 50 when the revised rankings come out. He is currently No. 53 in the ATP Live Rankings.   

Diallo will face Monte-Carlo finalist Lorenzo Musetti in his second meeting of the season. Their head-to-head is tied at 1-1 after Musetti prevailed in their fourth-round clash in Hong Kong earlier this year. The duo first crossed paths in the 2023 Davis Cup, where Diallo won.

The upcoming quarter-final match will be their first at the ATP 1000 level and the first on clay. The Madrid Open is in its final stages, and Musetti will be eager to reach the semi-finals for the first time. 

The winner of the Diallo-Musetti match will take on either Matteo Arnaldi or Jack Draper to reach the title round. Draper is the last among the top five seeds remaining in the contest following Alexander Zverev’s loss to Francisco Cerundolo.  

Form

• Lorenzo Musetti: W-W-W-L-W
• Gabriel Diallo: W-W-W-W-L

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 2
• Lorenzo Musetti: 1
• Gabriel Diallo: 1

Also Read: Top five oldest men’s singles champions at Madrid Open

Stats

Lorenzo Musetti:

• Musetti has a 15-5 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Musetti has a 5-3 win-loss record in Madrid.
• Musetti has won 63% of matches played on clay courts.

Gabriel Diallo:

• Diallo has a 10-8 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Diallo is making his debut at the Madrid Open.
• Diallo has won 33% of matches played on clay courts.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Gabriel Diallo: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Musetti -380, Diallo +320.
• Spread: Musetti -4.5 (+115), Diallo +4.5 (-148). 
• Total games: Over 21.5 (-113), Under 21.5 (-113).

Match Prediction

Lorenzo Musetti enters the quarter-final face-off against Gabriel Diallo with a top-ten debut in the pocket and armed with a 9-1 record on clay this season. 

Both Musetti and his quarter-final opponent, Gabriel Diallo, are making their last-eight debut in Madrid. Diallo is making the most of his second chance as a lucky loser and now finds himself in the second week of the clay-court event.  

Given his current form, especially on clay, Musetti is virtually assured of a place in the last four. The in-form Musetti will surely call a timeout on Diallo’s Cinderella run at the Madrid Open.

Result: Musetti will win in straight sets.

Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of Lorenzo Musetti and Gabriel Diallo’s quarter-final match at the Madrid Open 2025?

The quarter-final round match between Lorenzo Musetti and Gabriel Diallo will be live telecast and streamed on the Sony Network in India. Sky UK will broadcast the event across the United Kingdom, while the Tennis Channel will do the same for tennis fans in the United States.

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