Aryna Sabalenka or Iga Swiatek: What each player must do to finish as year-end WTA World No 1

Flashback time for Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka as they battle it out for the year-end WTA No. #1 ranking.

In a scenario that will bring back memories of the 2023 season for both players, Iga Swiatek finds herself in pursuit of Aryna Sabalenka for the top spot in the WTA rankings for the second year in a row.

Swiatek won the 2023 WTA Finals by winning all her matches in Cancun to finish the event with 1500 points and reclaim the WTA No. #1 position from Sabalenka.

In last year’s WTA Finals, Swiatek took the year-end No. #1 ranking in a photo finish. Sabalenka finishing the round-robin stage 2-1 before losing in the semi-finals to Swiatek was enough to hand the Pole her second straight year-end No. #1. If Swiatek ensures a repeat, she will be the first woman to finish three consecutive years as No. #1 since Ashleigh Barty between 2019 to 2021.

With the WTA Finals 2024 being the last tournament to decide the year-end rankings, both players will aim to finish on top. Sabalenka is the current World No. #1 but Swiatek, at second position is not far behind. Let us take a look at what both players must do to ensure a year-end finish as the WTA World No. #1.

Note

At the WTA Finals, three round-robin matches are allocated to each player. For each round-robin win, the player bags 200 points, 400 points for winning the semi-final, and 500 points for winning the final. A maximum of 1500 points is up for grabs if the champion remains undefeated.

Heading into the 2024 WTA Finals, Sabalenka leads Swiatek by 1046 points. The lead, while not insurmountable, means another close finish is the likely scenario to emerge.

Also Read: All you need to know about prize money and points on offer at WTA Finals 2024

Aryna Sabalenka’s path to end the year as WTA No. #1 

Sabalenka is on 11 weeks as World No. #1, including the eight weeks from the 2023 season. To secure the year-end No. #1 ranking, Sabalenka must:

• Win all three round-robin matches.
• Win at least two round-robin matches and advance to the final.
• Win at least one round-robin match and advance to the final.

The above scenarios are independent of Swiatek’s performance in Riyadh. More crucially, should Sabalenka win her first two round-robin matches, Swiatek must replicate Sabalenka’s success. If the result goes the opposite way, Sabalenka will clinch the year-end No. #1 ranking for the first time.

Also Read: Aryna Sabalenka’s potential path to title glory at WTA Finals 2024

Sabalenka took a first step toward the year-ending No. #1 ranking by quelling the challenge from Qinwen Zheng, 6-3, 6-4, in just 84 minutes, to improve her record against the rising Chinese player to 5-0.

The Belarusian will next take on Italian Jasmine Paolini, who is making her WTA Finals debut. Sabalenka heads into the meeting with Paolini at 2-2, having evened the score when they last met in Beijing in 2023.

Iga Swiatek’s path to end the year as WTA No. #1

Swiatek, who saw her 125 weeks as No. #1 come to an end in October, has to take the long route to secure the year-end No. #1 rankings and includes:

• Winning the title undefeated, while Sabalenka wins a maximum of two round-robin matches and fails to reach the final.
• Swiatek wins the title with a 2-1 round-robin result, and Sabalenka wins just one round-robin match and misses out on the final.
• The third and unlikely scenario is Swiatek winning the title with a 1-2 round-robin record and Sabalenka not winning any round-robin matches.

Iga Swiatek had to script a turnaround against Wimbledon champion Barbora Krejcikova to earn her first win in two months. The Pole was compelled to rally from a set and 3-0 down to hand No. #8 seed Krejickova a 4-6, 7-5, 6-2 defeat in their first round-robin match.

Also Read: Iga Swiatek’s potential path to title glory at WTA Finals 2024

Swiatek’s next assignment will be to take on Coco Gauff, against whom she enjoys a dominant 11-1 record, including wins in Rome and Paris this year. The former World No. #1 arrives in Riyadh after hiring Wim Fissette as coach.

Fissette has coached three former No. #1s, Naomi Osaka, Kim Clijsters and Angelique Kerber, to Grand Slam titles. She recently parted company with Tomas Wiktorowski, with whom she won four Grand Slams.

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