Group C Scenarios Explained: How can India qualify for knockouts of FIBA Asia Cup 2025?

India are currently last in Group C ahead of the final round of matches.

The FIBA Asia Cup 2025, which started on 5 August and will end on 17 August, is entering the final stage of its group phase before the knockout rounds begin. With two rounds of matches played, teams will gear up for their final group phase match, starting August 9 (Saturday).

India, placed in Group C with China, Jordan, and hosts Saudi Arabia, have endured a disappointing campaign so far, losing both their group stage matches. Although there have been some positives from the Indian basketball team, they still haven’t registered a win.

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Scott Flemming’s side started their campaign against a much higher-ranked Jordan, whom they nearly defeated but unfortunately lost in overtime. There was a gap of 41 ranks between the two teams, prior to the clash. India are ranked 76th in the world, while Jordan are 35th in the FIBA world rankings.

Despite this, the Indian team came agonizingly close to victory, as they were leading 80-76 in the last 50 seconds. The Indian cagers just needed to defend for those 50 seconds, and they would have registered their first win at FIBA Asia Cup since the 2015 edition. Unfortunately, their defence fell short, and India lost in overtime.

In their second group match, India were crushed by China in a one-sided result.

On the other hand, China have already qualified for the knockouts after winning the first two matches against Saudi Arabia and India respectively. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Jordan have registered one win each in their two matches. Jordan beat India before Saudi edged them for their victory.

In the last round of Group C, Jordan will face group leaders China, while Saudi Arabia will clash against India. For India and Saudi, it will be a straight do-or-die encounter for a place in the playoff round.

The group-toppers from each group will directly advance to the quarter-finals while teams that finished second and third will move into a playoff-round for the remaining four quarters berths.

Also Read: FIBA Asia Cup 2025 Points Table & standings

Note: The order of Classification of for placing are based on the following criteria –

1. Points
2. Head-to-Head
3. Points Difference
4. Points Scored

Scenario of each team to qualify for FIBA Asia Cup 2025 Knockouts

India – 0 wins, 2 losses

India are in a difficult situation and would need to play out of their skin to qualify for the knockouts. Though chances look bleak, one can certainly hope for miracles because, after all, miracles do happen in sports, and that’s what makes the underdog story a beautiful one.

Scenario 1: India need to defeat Saudi Arabia and also hope that Jordan win against China. Then India will qualify based on the head-to-head results and Saudi Arabia will miss out.

Scenario 2: If Jordan lose to China, then India must beat Saudi Arabia by a margin of at least 6 points to qualify for the knockouts.

India are already out of equation from topping the group and securing a direct quarter-final berth, but they can they still qualify for the playoffs, which are technically pre-quarterfinals.

Also Read: India vs Saudi Arabia preview, players to watch, live streaming details: FIBA Asia Cup 2025

Saudi Arabia – 1 win, 1 loss

Like India, Saudi Arabia are also in a tricky situation. They also are out contention for a direct quarter-final berth but can still qualify for the playoff round.

Scenario 1: If they lose against India and Jordan defeat China, Saudi Arabia will be eliminated as both India and they will have same number of points. So, based on head-to-head they will be last in the group. Should Saudi defeat India, they will advance to the playoff-round.

Scenario 2: If Jordan lose to China and Saudi Arabia also face defeat against India, Jordan and Saudi Arabia will have the same number of points. Saudi Arabia will then just need to ensure that their margin of defeat is less than 6 points.

Jordan – 1 win, 1 loss

Jordan are in a good position to qualify for the knockouts. However, their chances of directly reaching the quarter-finals were hurt after the narrow loss to Saudi Arabia. However, if they don’t perform badly against China and keep it close, Jordan would qualify for the playoff-round.

Scenario 1: In order to qualify for the quarter-finals, Jordan will need to defeat China and ensure that India beat Saudi Arabia. Then on the basis of head-to-head, they would top the group and earn the direct berth, as both China and Jordan will have the same points.

Scenario 2: If Saudi Arabia win, then Jordan will have needed to beat China by at least 5 points to top the group, otherwise China will qualify.

Scenario 3: In order to qualify for the playoff-round, they need Saudi Arabia to win against India. If Saudi Arabia and Jordan both lose their final group match, then Jordan needs to lose by a tight margin. They have more or less secured their spot in the playoff round, unless they lose by a very big margin.

Also Read: China vs Jordan preview, players to watch, live streaming details: FIBA Asia Cup 2025

China – 2 wins, 0 losses

Having qualified for the knockouts, China are in a comfortable position to top the group and can directly advance to the quarter-finals. China’s last match is against Jordan.

Scenario 1: To secure a direct berth for the quarter-finals, China will have to beat Jordan. If they lose, then will have to hope for Saudi Arabia to win against India in the later game. Should Saudi Arabia defeat India, then China can top the group even with a loss, given their margin of defeat is less than 5 points.

Scenario 2: If China lose to Jordan and similarly Saudi Arabia lose against India, then China will not top Group C—based on head-to-head. Jordan will then finish on top and advance to the quarters while China will qualify for the playoff round as the second-placed side.

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