Premier League 2023-24 title odds after Gameweek 12

Manchester City are backed by Opta to win fourth Premier League in a row

Opta supercomputer released its Premier League projections at the beginning of the campaign.

From the start of the Premier League season, it has run 10,000 simulations, allowing us to determine the probable ending place for every one of the twenty clubs in the division. These are the approximate odds of each team placing in each place after nearly three-quarters of the season has passed in the most recent 10,000 season simulations run by our supercomputer.

The November update for our Premier League forecasts heading off this weekend’s resumption of domestic football; continue reading for an examination of our results. They have already examined the Premier League’s relegation struggle.

Since the October Premier League predictions update, City have only solidified its position as a favourite. Their odds of capturing the title were initially estimated to be at a still respectably high 73.4%, but following victories over Brighton, Manchester United, and Bournemouth as well as a thrilling eight-goal stalemate at Chelsea, the supercomputer now projects them to win in 84.3% of its 10,000 simulations.

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Liverpool, pose an opportunity to reclaim their place as Guardiola’s greatest challenger. Between international breaks, Jürgen Klopp’s team defeated Brentford, Nottingham Forest, and Everton in addition to winning three and drawing one.

However, a 1-1 draw against Luton Town was not precisely the performance of the likely winners. They are only one point below City, though, so their 9.3% chance of winning the championship—down from 12.2% in October—may seem a little severe.

Arsenal’s chances of improving upon last season have also decreased since our last update, falling from 11.8% to just 5.7% after they lost at Newcastle United and drew at Chelsea. Their two wins came against Sheffield United and Burnley, two teams that are already in the bottom position.

Tottenham lost their last two games prior to this international break due to injuries and suspensions. After defeating London rivals Fulham and Crystal Palace, Ange Postecoglou’s team played an odd game against Chelsea and lost 4-1.

Their most recent match ended in a heartbreaking late loss to Wolves. Even though Spurs are only two points from the top spot, the supercomputer has reduced their prospects from 1.5% to only 0.3%.

Aston Villa, in fifth place, is favoured to win (0.2%), with very slim odds to win also going to Newcastle (0.07%) and Brighton (0.01%).

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