Can East Bengal qualify for the ISL 2024-25 playoffs?

East Bengal sit at the 8th spot in the ISL 2024-25 standings.

East Bengal maintained their large surge in the final stretch of the league phase of the 2024-25 Indian Super League (ISL) campaign with a 2-0 win over Hyderabad FC.

This marked the first time that the Torchbearers have won three ISL games on the trot, with the Kolkata side seemingly hitting top gear at the business end of the campaign.

WIth their win over Hyderabad FC, East Bengal have taken their tally to 27 points. This is, incidentally, their highest-ever points tally in a single ISL campaign since they arrived in the competition. What this has allowed is that it’s kept their chances alive of at least having a mathematical possibility of reaching the next round.

How can East Bengal qualify for the ISL playoffs?

East Bengal will, of course, have to win their last two league phase matches against Bengaluru FC and NorthEast United to do so. Dropping any points will automatically end their dreams of a playoff place. But if they can actually win their next two games and reach the 33-point mark, there is a chance for the Kolkata side to get into the playoffs.

For that, however, a lot of things will have to go in their favour. There are three teams (Mumbai City FC, NorthEast United and Odisha FC) above them in the hunt for the final two places in the ISL playoffs. Here are the equations that must be met for East Bengal to qualify for the playoffs (if they win both games) in regards to their top-6 rivals.

Mumbai City FC

The Islanders are in a very strong position to clinch a place in the ISL playoffs. They have three games remaining, against Mohun Bagan, Kerala Blasters and Bengaluru FC. But if they lose all their remaining matches, the former ISL champions will finish on 32 points. East Bengal can finish over them if they win their last two games and get to the 33-points mark.

Even if Mumbai CIty get one point from their last three games and finish on same points as East Bengal, they’re guaranteed a place above East Bengal. That is because they defeated the Kolkata side earlier this season and final standings consider head-to-head record for teams tied on the same points.

With that being said, even if East Bengal finish above Mumbai City, some things must go in their favour for them to make it to the playoffs.

NorthEast United

Juan Pedro Benali’s side have two matches remaining and know one win can book them a place in the ISL. They face Chennaiyin FC and East Bengal in their last two league phase games. The Red & Gold Brigade need the Highlanders to lose to Chennaiyin FC to significantly bolster their chances of finishing over them.

If East Bengal can defeat Bengaluru FC and then get a win over NorthEast United in the above-mentioned scenario, then they’ll finish over Benali’s side. Moreover, even if NorthEast United play a draw against Chennaiyin FC and and East Bengal win their last two games (meaning both finish on 33 points), they’ll finish above them in the table because they defeated the Highlanders in Kolkata earlier this season.

Odisha FC

Another major headache for East Bengal in their top-6 dreams is the presence of Odisha FC. The Juggernauts have two games remaining, one against Mohammedan Sporting and another against Jamshedpur FC. If they somehow win both games, then Sergio Lobera’s side will take a huge step forward in the playoffs race.

In that case, they’ll finish on 35 points – a mark East Bengal can’t reach. The Red & Gold Brigade need them to lose at least one of the two games and then win their next two matches to guarantee their place finishing above Lobera’s side.

Kerala Blasters

The Tuskers might not be above East Bengal in the table, but they could disrupt their chances of getting into the top-6. If Kerala Blasters win their remaining three league phase games, they’ll also finish on 33 points. The head-to-head between these two teams can’t be considered as both won one game a-piece in their two encounters this season.

Hence, goals scored will be considered. Kerala Blasters have more goals (30) to East Bengal (26) now. So they’ll need to ramp up the goals to oust the Tuskers in this case. But if Kerala Blasters even lose one of their last three games, they’ll end up finishing beloe East Bengal – given that the Kolkata side wins their last two matches.

What is the most probable equation for East Bengal’s playoff dream?

For the time being, East Bengal’s probability for qualifying for the ISL playoffs is still on the lowly side. East Bengal face FK Arkadag in the AFC Challenge League quarter-finals, with two legs being on March 5 and March 12. To juggle with that and win both the ISL matches will be a formidable task for Oscar Bruzon’s side.

But IF they somehow clinch two more victories in the ISL league phase, the more realistic possibility of East Bengal getting a berth in the top-6 is if Odisha FC lose one of their last two games and as long as Kerala Blasters doesn’t win their three remaining games.

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