F1 2024 Saudi Arabian GP: Preview & Predictions

Red Bull and Max Verstappen carried on their merry ways from last season, as the 3-time world champion laid down the gauntlet ahead of what will be the longest season in Formula 1 history. 

Although Ferrari and Carlos Sainz were much closer to Sergio Pérez on race pace, toppling Red Bull and Max from their perch will be a step too far, at least this early on in the season. 

Further down the grid, both Haas and McLaren were the biggest winners from Bahrain given their improved race pace, while both Racing Bulls and Williams failed to deliver on the hype built over the pre-season testing. 

So, without further ado, let’s take a look at what the 2024 Saudi Arabian GP might have in store for us. 

Preview: 2024 Saudi Arabian GP 

As the dust settles on the season opener in Bahrain, we finally have an idea of where each team stands ahead of the longest season on the calendar in F1 history. 

Given the twisty and high-speed nature of the track, the Red Bulls will definitely be the class of the field with their evolutionary RB20 car. In the chasing pack, the likes of McLaren should be up there with Ferrari. 

Furthermore, despite being a street circuit, it was responsible for 36 on-track overtakes last year, aided by its three DRS zones. Thus, teams with relatively good engine power and aerodynamically efficient cars will excel in this year’s Grand Prix. 

Unlike Bahrain, the track in Jeddah is also less abrasive, with Pirelli bringing the C2, C3, & C4 tyre compounds for this weekend. Thus, the data says most teams will only go for a one-stop Softs-to-Hards strategy. However, with such a narrow track, who says a safety car can’t throw the strategists into a frenzy? 

Predictions: 

5. Jeddah will bring the Alpines closer to the field 

Alpine were expected to struggle in Bahrain, but the way the team capitulated over the winter wasn’t expected. In Bahrain, Alpine were comfortably the slowest car on both one lap and race pace. Given that the car is also overweight, it has made getting on top of it even more difficult for Alpine’s two French drivers. 

With Jeddah being a street circuit with a majority of high- and medium-speed corners, the Alpines should be much closer to the Sauber and Williams cars. 

4. Haas and Hulkenberg will surprise us again

The biggest surprise to come out of the 2024 Bahrain GP was Haas’ race pace. Although both drivers and team principal Ayao Komatsu played down their chances after the pre-season testing, it seems they’ve gotten on top of both their tyre degradation and race pace issues from years gone by. 

Nico Hulkenberg made it to Q3 last race on merit, and with the few overtaking places and Haas’ outright top speed, if the German can get his car to Q3 again, there’s every chance he delivers a points finish for the American team. 

3. Mercedes to scrap with the Aston Martins 

Both practice and qualifying showed that Mercedes had made massive strides in terms of pure race, but come race day, it all came undone for the 8-time Constructors champions. As the race wore on, the team struggled with overheating issues and had to manage most of the race. Even on race pace, both McLarens were faster than Russell and Hamilton on both soft and hard tyres. 

Taking into account Jeddah’s characteristics, Mercedes are expected to struggle against its direct rivals Ferrari and McLaren, while the Aston Martin, at least in Fernando Alonso’s hands, should challenge both drivers. 

2. McLaren will be Ferrari’s closest challengers 

Despite Bahrain being one of McLaren’s weaker tracks, the Woking-based outfit were on par and, in many instances, even better than the Mercedes cars during the Bahrain GP. More importantly, like Red Bull and Ferrari, McLaren aced the tricky second sector in Bahrain, something we’ll see more of in a circuit like Jeddah. The only thing, in my opinion, that’s slightly holding them back from the Ferraris is their straight-line speed and slow-speed corners.

1.  Max Verstappen will be even more dominant 

Everything went according to plan for the three-time world champion. Although there can be a discussion around the RB20’s loss at a one-lap pace, its race pace on Saturday shut off all its doubters. 

On similar tyres, Verstappen and Red Bull were quicker than 0.5s/lap over the field. Even his teammate, Sergio Pérez had no answers for Max’s dominance. Another ominous sign was that in sector two, where the car is least dependent on engine power and shows similar characteristics to the Jeddah circuit; Max was 0.8s quicker than his nearest competitor when comparing every driver’s best sector times. 

Thus, it’d really be a surprise if Max and Red Bull didn’t run away with this Grand Prix.

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