Aryna Sabalenka's projected path to Cincinnati Open 2025 final

The reigning champion will return to defend her crown.

World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka made the most of her time away from tennis after Wimbledon exit. Back in action just ahead of the US Open, the Belarusian began her title defence at the Cincinnati Masters with a victory over Czech star Markéta Vondrousova.

In her summer break, Sabalenka traveled around Greece and enjoyed life to the fullest. She is aware of what lies ahead, having to defend 3,000 points over the course of the next four weeks.

She is all set to repeat her heroics from last year in Cincinnati, however, after dealing with Vondrousova, the world no.1 will have to deal with a tough draw.

However, knowing Sabalenka, she would look to turn this formidable draw into an advantage for herself, as she hopes for the perfect preparation ahead of the US Open. On that note, let’s take a look at her potential route to glory at the Cincinnati Open 2025.

Aryna Sabalenka’s projected path-

Round 1 – Bye

Round 2 – Beat Marketa Vondrousova

Aryna Sabalenka faced saved 12 break points to survive a scare against Czech Marketa Vondrousova 7-5, 6-1 in her opening round in Ohio. Marketa Vondrousova had beaten Aryna Sabalenka not long ago, but on a different surface. The 2023 Wimbledon winner has not been able to replicate similar success on hard courts.

This time, however, Sabalenka left little room for error from the start. “I’ve played so many matches this season, so I’m quite experienced at handling those key moments. For me, the key is always to go for it without doubting my decisions. So far, it’s been working really well,” the Belarusian told Tennis Channel after the match.

Also Read: Iga Swiatek’s projected path to Cincinnati Open 2025 final

Round 3 – Beat Emma Raducanu

Aryna Sabalenka and Emma Raducanu delivered one of the most thrilling matches of the tournament so far. It was a three-hour, three-set battle in which the World No. 1 emerged victorious 7-6(6), 4-6, 7-6(5).

Raducanu had set up her meeting with the Belarusian after a comfortable 6-2, 6-2 win over Olga Danilović and was hoping to avenge her Wimbledon third-round loss against Sabalenka. However, heartbreak struck again for the Brit as her struggles against the world’s top-ranked star continued.

With this result, Sabalenka extended her head-to-head lead over Raducanu to 3-0.

Round 4 – Beat Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

After a tough third round, Sabalenka bounced back and grabbed an easy win against 22-year-old Spanish player Jessica Bouzas Maneiro in the round of 16 with score of 6-1, 7-5. Maneiro had advanced with a 6-4, 6-1 victory over Taylor Townsend in the round of 32.

The two had already met only once before, in the second round of the 2025 Australian Open, where the World No. 1 defeated the Spaniard 6-3, 7-5.

Bouzas Maneiro was apparently in a good form and did not drop a set in Cincinnati before facing the Belarusian, having also beaten the Washington Open winner Leylah Fernandez 6-3, 6-3 in her second round match.

Quarter-final – Elena Rybakina

From the quarterfinals onward, the challenge grows for three-time Grand Slam champion Sabalenka. She wil now face the world No. 10 Elena Rybakina, who is in fine form currently. After reaching the Canadian Open semifinals, Rybakina began a strong run in Cincinnati, defeating 2025 Australian Open winner Madison Keys 6(3)-7(7), 6-4, 6-3 in the round of 16.

However, Sabalenka holds a 7-4 lead in their head-to-head, with their most recent clash at the Berlin Ladies Open ending 7-6(6), 3-6, 7-6(6) in Sabalenka’s favor.

Semi-final – Iga Swiatek / Amanda Anisimova

Two-time Cincinnati semi-finalist might be up next for Sabalenka, marking a rematch of last year’s semi-final. The 27-year-old defeated the Pole with ease last time, and Swiatek would look to avenge her defeat.

While the overall H2H record is in Iga Swiatek‘s favor, the Belarusian has emerged victorious in the duo’s previous two meetings. Iga is coming on the back of an early defeat in Montreal, but would fancy her chances considering her improved serving and tactically smart defensive play.

Amanda Anisimova is one of the few players, barring Swiatek, who has had a favorable record against the World No. 1, having ended her Wimbledon dream only recently, emerging victorious in three sets.

The American was unfit during her loss to Elina Svitolina in Montreal, and must regain complete fitness to create trouble for Sabalenka. Either way, this could be a tough yet intriguing round for Sabalenka on her quest for glory.

Final – Coco Gauff / Jessica Pegula / Jasmine Paolini / Clara Tauson / Naomi Osaka

Yet another final might play out between Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff, with the American having beaten the top seed in the Roland Garros final. She leads the H2H record by 6-5, and the upcoming hard-court events could see them clash multiple times, fighting for the elusive trophy.

Jessica Pegula had lost the Cincinnati final to Sabalenka last year, and a rematch cannot be ruled out. Clara Tauson and Naomi Osaka both performed well in Montreal, and while fatigue may be playing a role, they are certainly the dark horses for this Masters tournament.

Jasmine Paolini is an underdog, coming on the back of poor form, including an opening round exit in Montreal.

For more updates, follow Khel Now on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram; download the Khel Now Android App or IOS App and join our community on Whatsapp & Telegram