Iga Swiatek's projected path to Cincinnati Open 2025 final

Iga Swiatek is a two-time semi-finalist at Cincinnati.

Iga Swiatek’s maiden outing following her Wimbledon triumph ended in a premature loss to Clara Tauson, who outplayed the six-time Grand Slam champion in straight sets at the Canadian Open 2025.

However, the six-time Grand Slam champion kicked off her Cincinnati campaign on a strong note, cruising past Russia’s Anastasia Potapova, enroute to her first title in Ohio.

Iga Swiatek is also in pursuit of the World No. 2 ranking and isn’t far behind Coco Gauff. While overtaking the American in Cincinnati appears unlikely, she has a strong opportunity to narrow the gap, setting up a thrilling race to the top at the all-important US Open.

Let’s take a look at her potential route to glory at the Cincinnati Open 2025.

Iga Swiatek’s projected path-

Round 1 – Bye

Round 2 – Beat Anastasia Potapova

It was a smooth start for World No. 3 at the Cincinnati Open 2025, as she eased past Anastasia Potapova who has not won a WTA tour-level match since May 25. The Polish star wrapped up the opening set in just 30 minutes, 6-1.

In the second, Potapova offered more resistance, but Swiatek closed it out 6-4 without letting it reach a tie-break, sealing a 6-1, 6-4 victory over the Russian.

With this defeat, Potapova’s losing streak extended from six to seven matches. It was only her second meeting with Swiatek, the first coming at the 2024 French Open, where the Pole claimed a double bagel. The 24-year-old now leads their head-to-head 2–0.

Round 3 – Marta Kostyuk

Swiatek was scheduled to face Ukrainian star Marta Kostyuk in her Cincinnati Open round of 32 clash, but the 23-year-old withdrew before the match due to a wrist injury. Kostyuk had shown signs of breaking her poor run of form in Montreal last week, reaching the quarterfinals at the Canadian Open before picking up a niggle that forced her to retire midway through her match.

As a result, Iga Swiatek advanced with a walkover. Had the match taken place, it would have been a rematch of their 2024 Cincinnati fourth-round encounter, which the Pole won in straight sets. In fact, Swiatek has never dropped a set against Kostyuk in their career meetings.

Also Read: Aryna Sabalenka’s projected path to Cincinnati Open 2025 final

Round 4 – Sorana Cirstea

Swiatek will now face veteran Romanian Sorana Cirstea in her Cincinnati Open round of 16 match. Cirstea comes into the clash after a hard-fought 6-7(2), 6-4, 6-4 victory over China’s Yue Yuan.

Currently ranked No. 138, the 35-year-old Romanian had earlier edged out Poland’s Magdalena Frech, the No. 22 seed, 7-6(4), 2-6, 6-4, and defeated Croatia’s Donna Vekic 6-1, 4-6, 6-3 in the opening rounds.

Swiatek and Cirstea have faced each other four times before, with the World No. 3 winning all four encounters and leading the head to head record 4-0.

Quarter-final – Amanda Anisimova / Beatriz Haddad Maia / Ekaterina Alexandrova

Amanda Anisimova, the Wimbledon 2025 finalist, has faced Swiatek once on the WTA Tour, losing 6–0, 6–0. Anna Kalinskaya interestingly holds a 1–0 lead in her head-to-head against Swiatek, having upset her in the 2024 Dubai semifinals with a 6–4, 6–4 win. The Russian also reached the Citi Open finals and could challenge Swiatek.

Beatriz Haddad Maia has played Swiatek four times, with the Polish star leading their rivalry 2–1; their most recent clash came at the 2024 Madrid Open, where Swiatek came from behind to win 4–6, 6–0, 6–2. Ekaterina Alexandrova clashed against Swiatek recently at the 2025 Bad Homburg quarterfinals, which Swiatek won 6–4, 7–6(5).

Semi-final – Aryna Sabalenka / Madison Keys / Elena Rybakina

A tough semi-final awaits Swiatek, as defending champion Aryna Sabalenka is slated to meet her, marking a re-match of last year’s semi-final.

Last time Sabalenka had comprehensively beaten the Pole, and Swiatek would look to avenge her loss. While the overall H2H record is in Swiatek’s favor, the Belarusian has emerged victorious in the duo’s previous two meetings.

Australian Open winner Madison Keys had beaten Swiatek in the semis on her path to glory at the start of the season. Since then, Keys has not had any solid outings and would be hoping to turn the tide in her favor on home soil.

Elena Rybakina is currently competing in the semifinals in Montreal, and making another deep run in Cincinnati—just days later—would be nothing short of remarkable, given the tight scheduling between the two Masters events. Swiatek leads h2h by a tight margin of 5-4.

Final – Coco Gauff / Jessica Pegula / Jasmine Paolini

Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff share an interesting rivalry. The six-time Grand Slam winner has won 11/12 of his opening matches, while the American has won the last three meetings, including the final of the United Cup 2025. On the hard and fast courts of Cincinnati, Gauff will certainly be the favorite over the Pole.

With an easier section, Jessica Pegula has a solid chance to go one step further this year, having lost the final to Sabalenka in 2024. Jasmine Paolini is an underdog, coming on the back of poor form, including an opening-round exit in Montreal.

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