Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Cincinnati Open 2025

Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina’s rivalry has set a unique win-loss trend.

World No. 10 Elena Rybakina came back from a set down for the third straight instance to knock out Australian Open winner Madison Keys.

At the Melbourne Park round-of-16 in January, Rybakina had fallen to Keys in three sets, but this time the ninth seed turned the tables, winning a 6-7(3), 6-4, 6-2 win in just under two and a half hours.

After dropping a tight first set despite a strong early lead of 4-1, and surrendering an early break in the second, the 2022 Wimbledon champion stayed composed, reclaiming the break in the ninth game before serving out the set.

In the decider, Rybakina dominated, showing signs of her peak form, breaking the American’s serve three times to qualify for a spot in the last eight.

“Another tough opponent. We played so many times. It was always such a battle”, said the Kazakh ahead of her 12th meeting with Aryna Sabalenka on the WTA tour.

Match details

• Tournament: Cincinnati Open 2025 
• Round: Quarter-final
• Date: August 15
• Venue: Lindner Family Tennis Center in Mason, Ohio, Cincinnati 
• Surface: Hard Court

Also Read: Aryna Sabalenka’s projected path to Cincinnati Open 2025 final

Preview

Aryna Sabalenka secured her season-leading 50th win of the 2025 season after prevailing in a nail-biting encounter against former US Open champion Emma Raducanu. The Belarusian then reached her 29th career WTA 1000 quarterfinal by defeating Spain’s Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-1, 7-5.

After dropping a break in the second set, Sabalenka refocused, breaking again in the final game to seal the straight-sets victory, later noting her aim was to pressure her opponent’s serve and avoid another three-set battle.

Two of the hardest hitters on the WTA tour currently, Sabalenka and Rybakina, produce epic duels every time they meet each other. Another riveting and action-packed contest between these two is on the cards, as Cincinnati prepares for the blockbuster quarter-final match.

They last faced off in Berlin earlier this year, where Rybakina held three match points in the tiebreak but failed to convert, allowing the top seed to mount a remarkable comeback.

Adding to the intrigue, their past six encounters have seen them trade wins alternately, with neither managing more than one consecutive victory against the other since October 2023.

Form

• Aryna Sabalenka: W-W-W-L-W
• Elena Rybakina: W-W-W-L-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 11
• Sabalenka: 7
• Rybakina: 4

Stats

Aryna Sabalenka

• Sabalenka has a 51-9 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Sabalenka has a 21-7 win-loss record in Cincinnati
• Sabalenka has won 73% of matches played on hard courts

Elena Rybakina

• Rybakina has a 40-15 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Rybakina has a 10-5 win-loss record in Cincinnati
• Rybakina has won 64% of matches played on hard courts.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Sabalenka -175, Rybakina +150
• Spread: Sabalenka -2.5 (-120), Rybakina +3.5 (-143)
• Total Games: Over 22.5 (-105), Under 22.5 (-120)
• 1st Set Winner: Sabalenka -160, Rybakina +138
• 1st Set Total Games: Over 9.5 (-120), Under 10.5 (-300)

Match prediction

This rivalry has set a unique win-loss trend over the past two years. Their past six meetings have seen both players win a match each, with the pattern being R-S-R-S-R-S. The Kazakh would hope that the trend continues, and her recent serving, particularly in the third set against Keys, inspires loads of confidence.

The World No. 1 has yet to find her top gear in this tournament, particularly with her first serve. She landed only 57% of them overall, but still won a strong 78% of those points. Against Bouzas, however, the pattern flipped — despite raising her first-serve percentage to 80%, her win rate on those points dipped sharply to just 63%.

The Belarusian has yet to find her best serving rhythm, a facet of the game that Rybakina has also struggled with lately. Both Grand Slam champions are expected to elevate their level, knowing this could be a fierce contest between two players renowned for their powerful ball-striking and ruthless court presence.

The biggest factor separating the two is their clutch mentality. Sabalenka has repeatedly bounced back from situations where she seemed to be out of contention, as seen in the Berlin tie.

In contrast, Rybakina has too often let advantageous positions slip and has spent considerable time on court in recent weeks, which could lead to physical and mental fatigue in the event of a potential three-setter.

Result: Aryna Sabalenka will win in three sets.

Where and how to watch live telecast and streaming of Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina, quarter-final match at Cincinnati Open 2025?

Indian viewers can watch the 2025 Cincinnati Open quarter-final clash between Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina on WTA TV after buying a subscription.

Sky Sports will broadcast the contest live in the United Kingdom. The Tennis Channel is the official broadcaster in the United States.

Full broadcast details here

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