Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Madrid Open 2025

Sabalenka has played five finals this year.

Aryna Sabalenka started her Madrid Open 2025 campaign with a dominating win over Anna Blinkova in straight sets. The Belarusian has been in excellent form this year and kicked off the clay season with a runner-up finish in the Stuttgart Open.

Despite clay not being the 26-year-old’s biggest strength, Sabalenka emerges as a strong contender for the title due to her consistency across tours and improved consistency over the years.

Match Details

• Tournament: Madrid Open 2025 Women’s Singles
• Round: Third round
• Date: April 27
• Venue: Manzanares Park, Madrid, Spain
• Surface: Clay

Also Read: Madrid Open 2025: All you need to know about prize money & points on offer

Preview

Sabalenka will meet familiar opponent Elise Mertens for the 12th time, and has dominated this rivalry. These two met just 10 days back in Stuttgart, where Sabalenka crushed the Belgian 6-4, 6-1. Moreover, the Belarusian has a stunning eight-match winning streak over Mertens.

Mertens, currently ranked 26th, easily prevailed over Camilla Osorio in the round of 64, but she now faces an opponent who has historically enjoyed great success against her.

Form

• Aryna Sabalenka: W-L-W-W-W
• Elise Mertens: W-L-W-W-L

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 11
• Aryna Sabalenka: 9
• Elise Mertens: 2

Also Read: Madrid Open 2025: Live streaming, TV channel, where & how to watch?

Stats

Aryna Sabalenka

• Sabalenka has a 25-5 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Sabalenka has a 19-4 win-loss record in Madrid.
• Sabalenka has won 71% of matches played on clay courts.

Elise Mertens

• Mertens has a 19-8 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Mertens has a 7-5 win-loss record in Madrid.
• Mertens has won 66% of matches played on clay courts.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Sabalenka -750, Mertens +650.
• Spread: Sabalenka -5.5 (-140), Mertens +6.5 (-129). 
• Total games: Over 18.5 (-121), Under 18.5 (-105).

Match Prediction

A two-time champion and 2024 finalist in Madrid, Sabalenka will be eyeing a three-peat and boasts an incredible record at the Manzanares Park. This round of 32 contest against Mertens should prove to be another convincing triumph for the Belarusian, as she continues to scale new heights and power her way to the business end of the competition.

Also Read: Top five title favourites in women’s singles at Madrid Open 2025

Result: Sabalenka will win in straight sets.

Where and how to watch the live telecast and live streaming of the third-round match between Aryna Sabalenka and Elise Mertens at the Madrid Open 2025?

The third-round match between Aryna Sabalenka and Elise Mertens will be broadcast on the Tennis Channel for viewers in India and the United States. Meanwhile, Sky Sports will air the tournament in the United Kingdom. 

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