Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: US Open 2025

Jessica Pegula and Aryna Sabalenka met in the US Open final last year.

Jessica Pegula coasted to a 6-3, 6-3 victory over Barbora Krejcikova after the Czech player folded in just 1 hour and 26 minutes. Krejcikova, a two-time Grand Slam champion, has been beset by injuries this season and, with the 2025 Grand Slam calendar nearly complete, is without a single WTA title to her name.

Pegula, the 2024 US Open finalist, booked passage to a second straight semi-final at the venue without dropping a set. The American World No. 4 sets up a rematch reminiscent of last year’s title round clash with Aryna Sabalenka.

Sabalenka overpowered Pegula in straight sets last year to claim her maiden US Open trophy and third major title. The Belarusian leads Pegula 7-2 in their head-to-head rivalry. She is also the first player since Serena Williams to make the semi-final stage at all four Grand Slam events as the WTA World No. 1.

5 – Since 1990, Aryna Sabalenka is now the fifth player to reach all four Women’s Singles SFs at Grand Slam events in a season as WTA #1: Graf (1990)Seles (1992)Hingis (1998)S. Williams (2015-16)Sabalenka (2025) 🆕Constant.#USOpen | @usopen @WTA @WTA_insider pic.twitter.com/swYJ4aZBdl

— OptaAce (@OptaAce) September 2, 2025

The World No. 1 from Belarus advanced to the last four after Marketa Vondrousova withdrew from their scheduled quarter-final clash with a knee injury. Vondrousova had eliminated an in-form Elena Rybakina, 6-4, 5-7, 6-2 in the previous round to advance to her second US Open quarter-final.  

Match details

• Tournament: US Open 2025
• Round: Semi-finals
• Date: September 4
• Venue: Arthur Ashe Stadium, Flushing Meadows
• Surface: Hard Court

Also Read: No Pressure! Aryna Sabalenka’s subtle message for boyfriend Georgios Frangulis after ‘proposal’ during her match

​Preview

Pegula is one of two Americans to make it to the second week at Flushing Meadows. The other being Amanda Anisimova, who completed her revenge over Iga Swiatek by sending the defending Wimbledon champion packing in the quarter-finals.

Pegula will be aware of the task awaiting her against Sabalenka as well as the fact that Americans have halted Sabalenka’s progress just short of the title at all three Grand Slams this season.

Playing on home turf has brought glad tidings for Pegula for the second year running as she is through to her second Grand Slam semi-final.

2nd major SF incoming 🦅Pegula gives a straight sets performance to reach the final four for the second consecutive year in NYC! ✨#USOpen pic.twitter.com/V47Jv6I7wH

— Tennis Channel (@TennisChannel) September 2, 2025

Sabalenka’s passage to the semi-finals makes her the fifth woman in the last 35 years to reach the last four stage at every Grand Slam in a single year. The top seed is in good company, as she shares the spotlight with tennis greats such as Steffi Graf, Monica Seles, Martina Hingis, and Serena Williams.

As she prepares to take on Pegula in the semi-finals, Sabalenka is yet to win a major this season. The 27-year-old remains on track to become the first defending champion to defend her title since Serena Williams completed her hat trick of wins between 2012-2014. 

Each time Sabalenka has faced an American deep at a Grand Slam in 2025, the result has gone against her.

Madison Keys denied Sabalenka her third straight title in the finals at Melbourne,  followed by Coco Gauff, who stopped the Belarusian from winning her maiden Roland Garros title. This was succeeded by an unforeseen defeat to Amanda Anisimova in the Wimbledon semi-finals.

Pegula, with that bit of recent history on her side, has an opportunity to get the better of Sabalenka in New York City. The crowd at the Arthur Ashe Stadium will be rooting for the local player.

Form

• Aryna Sabalenka: W-W-W-W-L
• Jessica Pegula: W-W-W-W-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 9
• Sabalenka: 7
• Pegula: 2

Stats

Aryna Sabalenka

• Sabalenka has a 55-10 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Sabalenka has a 33-6 win-loss record in New York
• Sabalenka has won 74% of matches played on hard courts

Jessica Pegula

• Pegula has a 42-16 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Pegula has a 23-8 win-loss record in New York
• Pegula has won 64% of matches played on hard courts

Also Read: US Open 2025: All you need to know about prize money & points on offer

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Sabalenka -325, Pegula +260
• Spread: Sabalenka -4.5 (-110), Pegula +4.5 (-125)
• Total Games: Over 21.5 (-120), Under 21.5 (-120)
• 1st Set Winner: Sabalenka -250, Pegula +200
• 1st Set Total Games: Over 9.5 (+110), Under 9.5 (-150)

Match prediction

Pegula will have one major aim on Friday—to seek a payback win over Sabalenka and enter the title round. This would give the American an opportunity to grant the audience’s wish for a second homegrown champion in the decade after Coco Gauff in 2023.

Sabalenka has a 4-2 edge over Pegula on hard courts heading into their upcoming semi-final clash. The top seed overcame Pegula in their only meeting at Miami, with a 7-5, 6-2 win in the finals of the WTA 1000 event.

Pegula has not defeated Sabalenka since their face-off at the 2023 WTA Finals. Sabalenka has won their three previous meetings, all on US soil in straight sets.

If those results are any indication, another straightforward win for the top seed is on the cards. The World No. 1 remains a formidable foe in New York with a 17-1 win-loss record since the 2023 US Open.

Result: Aryna Sabalenka to win in straight sets.

Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula, semi-final match at the 2025 US Open?

The 2025 US Open women’s singles semi-final match will be available for Indian viewers on Jio Hotstar and Star Sports. Sky UK and the Tennis Channel will broadcast the face-off live within the United Kingdom and the United States, respectively.

For full worldwide broadcast details click here

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