Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Indian Wells Open 2025

Keys secured a 16th straight win to set up the Sabalenka rematch.

Australian Open champion Madison Keys swept aside Belinda Bencic, 6-1, 6-1, extending her undefeated run to 16 matches in the quarter-finals at Indian Wells Open. The World No. #5 has booked a spot in the last four for the first time. Keys, 30, is yet to lose a match since the quarter-final loss to Clara Tauson at the ASB Classic.

Keys will take on World No. #1 Aryna Sabalenka with a spot in her first WTA 1000 final since 2019 on the line. The American took the title at the Cincinnati Open that year. It will be a much-anticipated rematch of January’s Australian Open final, which Keys won for her first Grand Slam trophy to end Sabalenka’s quest for a Melbourne three-peat.

Madison Keys prevailed over Bencic, improving to 3-2 with a dominant display that the No. #5 seed wrapped up in just 64 minutes. The fifth seed was coming off two bruising encounters with Elise Mertens and Donna Vekic in the previous two rounds. Both Mertens and Vekic took a set off Keys, extending the matches into a decider that included closely fought second-set tie-breaks. 

Sabalenka has been on cruise control all through the Indian Wells fortnight. She is yet to drop a set and faced only one tie-break, which came in the opening round against American McCartney Kessler. The top seed dropped just six games in her wins over Lucia Bronzetti (6-1, 6-2) and Sonay Kartal (6-1, 6-2) before taking out Liudmila Samsonova 6-2, 6-3. The Belarusian now finds herself in her second Indian Wells semi-final since 2023.   

Also Read: Indian Wells Open 2025: All you need to know about prize money and points on offer

Match details

• Tournament: 2025 Indian Wells Open Women’s Singles
• Round: Semi-final
• Date: March 14
• Time: 6:30 AM IST (Saturday morning)
• Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, Indian Wells, United States
• Surface: Hard Court (Outdoor)

Preview

Madison Keys finally secured a Grand Slam trophy after a lengthy wait. For Keys, winning her first major took four quarter-finals, five semi-finals and one title-round appearance to materialise. The American emerged as an unlikely victor in a memorable Australian Open women’s singles final when she defeated Sabalenka 6-3, 2-6, 7-5.

Keys will have to find a way past Sabalenka at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Saturday’s semi-final for her first title-round appearance at the venue. There has not been an American women’s singles champion since 2001 and women’s singles finalist since 2016 – both distinctions held by Serena Williams.

Sabalenka has advanced to the last four without dropping a set, but Keys is riding high with a 16-match win streak. The top seed is headed for a seventh meeting with the American and is granted to be a riveting affair. The 2018 Cincinnati Open quarter-final was their only other face-off at a WTA 1000 event.

Also Read: Players with most titles in women’s singles at Indian Wells Masters

Form

• Aryna Sabalenka: W-W-W-W-L
• Madison Keys: W-W-W-W-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 6
• Sabalenka: 4
• Keys: 2

Stats

Aryna Sabalenka

• Sabalenka has a 16-3 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Sabalenka has a 15-5 win-loss record in Indian Wells
• Sabalenka has won 73% of matches played on hard courts

Madison Keys

• Keys has an 18-1 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Keys has a 15-11 win-loss record in Indian Wells
• Keys has won 61% of matches played on hard courts

Also Read: Indian Wells Open 2025: All you need to know about prize money and points on offer

Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys: Betting tips and odds

Moneyline: Sabalenka -200, Keys +176

Spread: Sabalenka -3.5 (-116), Keys +3.5 (+116)

Total Games: Over 21.5 (-118), Under 21.5 (-105)

Match prediction

Madison Keys is enjoying a late-career revival that saw her ease Sabalenka’s grip on the Australian Open trophy. The American is a near-perfect 18-1 in 2025, beginning with the ASB Classic final run. Keys looks to be making up for lost time after being sidelined in February with a hamstring injury. 

After an underwhelming trip to the Middle East, Sabalenka got back on track in Indian Wells to reach only her second career semi-final in this tournament. The Belarusian has taken a liking to the updated surface as it suits her game and was at ease playing her powerful groundstrokes all week long.

Keys had to contend with some close calls and kept on court for back-to-back three-setters by Elise Mertens and Donna Vekic. Despite the American enjoying a purple patch, Sabalenka is unlikely to let victory slip from her grasp the second time against the same rival.

Result: Aryna Sabalenka to win in three sets.

Where and how to watch live streaming and TV broadcast of Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys, women’s singles semi-final match at Indian Wells Open 2025?

Indian fans can tune in to premium streamer Tennis Channel and WTA TV for all the semi-final action between Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys. Viewers in the United States have the Tennis Channel to cater to their viewing needs, while Sky Sports will live stream the match within the United Kingdom.

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