Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Madrid Open 2025

Sabalenka sweeps into her fourth Madrid Open quarter-final.

Aryna Sabalenka has crossed a few milestones this week. The Belarusian eased into her fourth Madrid Open quarter-final, scored her 20th win at the venue, and has occupied the WTA No #1 ranking for 35 weeks since becoming No #1 in October last year.

Sabalenka defeated Peyton Stearns to book a spot in the last eight with a 6-2, 6-4 win. The win also put her in pole position for most match wins on tour with 28 victories, one ahead of Jessica Pegula’s 27 match wins.

Ukrainian Marta Kostyuk has recorded her best-ever result at the venue since making her main draw debut at the Madrid Open in 2018. The No. 24 seed moved into the last eight by defeating Russian Anastasia Potapova 6-3, 6-2, and even their head-to-head at 2-2 on Tuesday evening in the Spanish capital.

The 22-year-old Kostyuk faces top seed Sabalenka as she bids to become the first Ukrainian player from the WTA Tour to reach the semi-finals of the Madrid Open. 

Match details

• Tournament: Madrid Open 2025
• Round: Quarter-final
• Date: April 30
• Venue: Manzanares Park, Madrid, Spain
• Surface: Clay

Preview

Aryna Sabalenka has shown little discomfort transitioning to the European clay court swing after two weeks on North American hard courts. The World No. 1 made back-to-back finals at Indian Wells and Miami and ended the Miami Open fortnight with the winner’s trophy in her hands.

Sabalenka reached the finals at the Stuttgart Open before losing to Jelena Ostapenko. The two-time Madrid Open champion stayed on course for a third title when she overcame American Peyton Stearns to set up the quarter-final face-off with Marta Kostyuk. 

The upcoming match between Sabalenka and Kostuk on the red clay courts in Madrid will be their first at a WTA 1000 event but their second on the surface after their opening-round clash at the 2023 French Open. Kostyuk is yet to take a set off the Belarusian from their two meetings. 

Form

• Aryna Sabalenka: W-W-W-L-W
• Marta Kostyuk: W-W-W-L-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 2
• Aryna Sabalenka: 2
• Marta Kostyuk: 0

Also Read: Aryna Sabalenka’s projected path to Madrid Open 2025 final

Stats

Aryna Sabalenka: 

• Sabalenka has a 28-5 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Sabalenka has a 20-4 win-loss record in Madrid.
• Sabalenka has won 71% of matches played on hard courts.

Marta Kostyuk:

• Kostyuk has a 14-9 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Kostyuk has a 4-5 win-loss record in Madrid.
• Kostyuk has won 52% of matches played on hard courts.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Sabalenka -450, Kostyuk +380.
• Spread: Sabalenka -5.5 (-105), Kostyuk +5.5 (-122). 
• Total games: Over 19.5 (-114), Under 20.5 (-140).

Match Prediction

Historically, making a deep run has favoured Sabalenka in Madrid. The top-seed and World No. 1 has reached the title round on every occasion, once she eases into the last eight. 

Her quarterfinal opponent, Marta Kostyuk, has improved a lot since they last met at Roland Garros in 2023. Kostyuk is 7-3 on clay in the last 52 weeks and was a finalist in Stuttgart last season. However, she will be up against a player who has won 82% of her matches on clay with a 14-3 record in the same period. 

While the clay courts at Roland Garros tend to reward patience and some on-court grinding, the Madrid clay is quicker. This is likely to favour the power player in Sabalenka when she takes on Kostyuk later on Wednesday.  

Result: Sabalenka will win in straight sets.

Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk quarter-final match at Madrid Open 2025?

The quarter-final match between Aryna Sabalenka and Marta Kostyuk will be broadcast on the Tennis Channel for viewers in India and the United States. Meanwhile, Sky Sports will air the tournament in the United Kingdom.

For more updates, follow Khel Now on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram; download the Khel Now Android App or IOS App and join our community on Whatsapp & Telegram