Aryna Sabalenka vs Qinwen Zheng prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Italian Open 2025

Zheng will look to tame Sabalenka for her first win over the Belarusian.

Aryna Sabalenka survived a close second set against Marta Kostyuk to overcome the Ukrainian 6-1, 7-6(8) in 2 hours and 5 minutes on Campo Centrale. Their previous encounter in the Madrid quarter-finals a fortnight ago was a nail-biter that ended with a 7-6(4), 7-6(7) scoreline in favour of the Belarusian.

Sabalenka is now the tour leader with 34 match wins. She is also on a 13-match winning streak at WTA 1000 events, alongside a 12-1 record at clay-court events this season. The top seed has completed the quarter-final lineup in Rome, where she will take on eighth-seed Qinwen Zheng.

A 7-5, 6-1 loss to Zheng ended Bianca Andreescu’s stay in Rome. Zheng’s reward for the win is a third consecutive quarter-final in Rome. The Chinese player is competitive on clay, a fact reinforced by her 13-match streak beginning from Palermo last season until Charleston this year. The run included an Olympic Gold in Paris.

Andreescu’s nine winners in reply to Zheng’s 27 was inadequate against the more aggressive World No #8. The Chinese also seized seven serve breakpoint opportunities to move closer to a place in the semi-finals.

Match details

Tournament: Italian Open 2025

Round: Quarter-finals

Date: May 14

Venue: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy

Surface: Clay

Preview

Sabalenka battled the humidity of Miami to emerge as the winner and won her third title in Madrid. Now, she has her first Italian Open title in the crosshairs. 

Zheng is yet to drop a set in Rome, while Sabalenka lost a set en route to comeback win against Sofia Kenin in the third round. Sabalenka has already reached six finals this season, and her current form on clay indicates another title round is on the cards. 

With Iga Swiatek not around to defend her title, the setting is ripe for Sabalenka and Zheng to go all the way. The duo are no slouches on clay—Zheng is on 85% while Sabalenka is on 88% in terms of clay court wins over the past 52 weeks. 

Form

• Aryna Sabalenka: W-W-W-W-W
• Qinwen Zheng: W-W-W-L-L

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 6
• Sabalenka: 6
• Zheng: 0

Also Read: Italian Open 2025: All you need to know about prize money & points on offer

Stats

Aryna Sabalenka

• Sabalenka has a 34-5 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Sabalenka has a 12-6 win-loss record in Rome
• Sabalenka has won 72% of matches played on clay courts

Qinwen Zheng

• Zheng has a 12-7 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Zheng has a 9-3 win-loss record in Rome
• Zheng has won 72% of matches played on clay courts

Aryna Sabalenka vs Sofia Kenin: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Sabalenka -295, Zheng +250
• Spread: Sabalenka -4.5 (+100), Zheng +4.5 (-118)
• Total sets: Over 20.5 (-110), Under 21.5 (-125)

Match Prediction

Sabalenka’s 6-0 lead over Zheng in their head-to-head will naturally be a factor when they meet in the last eight. The current World No #1 overcame Zheng, 6-2, 7-5, in their most recent match in the Miami quarter-finals in March. 

For Zheng, Sabalenka represents a summit that she has never conquered. The closest she came to victory over Sabalenka was in the 2024 Wuhan Open. It was the only time she took a set off the top seed but lost 3-6, 7-5, 6-3. 

A role reversal is required if Zheng is to live up to her potential and win a Grand Slam that she covets. She has to overcome the Sabalenka hurdle at some point, and the upcoming first face-off on clay is another opportunity to do just that. 

Result: Aryna Sabalenka to win in three sets.

Where and how to watch live streaming and TV broadcast of Aryna Sabalenka vs Qinwen Zheng, fourth-round match at Italian Open 2025?

Indian fans can tune in to premium streamer Tennis Channel to catch the quarter-final match between Aryna Sabalenka and Qinwen Zheng at the Italian Open. Viewers in the United States can tune in to the Tennis Channel, while Sky Sports will livestream the match within the United Kingdom.

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