Aryna Sabalenka vs Sofia Kenin prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Italian Open 2025

Kenin defeated Sabalenka in their previous meeting in Rome.

A breezy opening round to get her in against Anastasia Potapova saw the top seed emerge as the winner with a 6-2, 6-2 scoreline. It mirrors her start to the Madrid Open campaign, where she defeated Russian Qualifier Anna Blinkova 6-3, 6-4 to progress. 

Aryna Sabalenka moves to 2-0 in her head-to-head against Potapova after a second straight win over the World No. 34 from Russia. The result is an Italian Open re-match from the 2023 season against Sofia Kenin. A confident Kenin overwhelmed Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the second round, 6-3, 6-0 in just 66 minutes on Friday. The American converted all five breakpoints against Pavlyuchenkova. 

Top seed Sabalenka was equally efficient in her 63-minute takedown of Potapova, making the most of the 24-year-old’s five double faults. Sabalenka converted four of seven breakpoints and hit 24 winners en route to her second-round victory. 

Match Details

• Tournament: Italian Open 2025 Women’s Singles
• Round: Third round
• Date: May 11
• Venue: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy
• Surface: Clay

Also Read: Aryna Sabalenka’s projected path to Italian Open 2025 final

Preview

Sabalenka was eliminated in the second round of the 2023 Italian Open, losing to Kenin. Then, too, the Belarusian had just won the Madrid Open title. That loss was Sabalenka’s earliest exit in Rome since 2019. Kenin, then ranked No. 134, defeated the second seed in straight sets for a 7-6(4), 6-2 win.   

It has been five years since Kenin won the Lyon Open in 2020, her last recorded WTA Title. She came close to ending the title drought at last month’s Charleston Open. A straight-set loss to compatriot Jessica Pegula ended Kenin’s hopes of getting her hands on the trophy.  

Form

• Aryna Sabalenka: W-W-W-W-W
• Sofia Kenin: W-L-W-L-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 4
• Aryna Sabalenka: 3
• Sofia Kenin: 1

Stats

Aryna Sabalenka: 

• Sabalenka has a 32-5 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Sabalenka has a 10-6 win-loss record in Rome.
• Sabalenka has won 72% of matches played on clay courts.

Sofia Kenin:

• Kenin has a 19-10 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Kenin has a 7-4 win-loss record in Rome.
• Kenin has won 54% of matches played on clay courts.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Sofia Kenin: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Sabalenka -700, Kenin +520.
• Spread: Sabalenka -5.5 (-126), Kenin +5.5 (+102). 
• Total games: Over 19.5 (+105), Under 19.5 (-125).

Match Prediction

World No. 1 Sabalenka is on a 13-match-winning streak at WTA 1000 events and is 10-1 on clay after her opening-round win. Those numbers will be tested when she takes on Kenin in the third round. Their second-round match in Rome from two years ago, which Kenin won, is their only face-off on clay. 

While this would be a source of optimism for the No. 31 seed, Kenin trails the Belarusian 3-1 head-to-head. Additionally, Sabalenka is a three-time winner on the clay courts in Madrid, a finalist in Rome last season, and a semi-finalist in 2022. 

The World No. 1 has presented a new and improved version of herself since losing the Australian Open to Madison Keys in January. A calmer Sabalenka makes for a significant threat on tour and to Kenin while losing none of her competitiveness on the court. If her recent clay court form is any indication, there is little doubt about who will prevail in the Sabalenka vs Kenin face-off. 

Result: Sabalenka will win in straight sets.

Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of Aryna Sabalenka vs Sofia Kenin third-round match at the Italian Open 2025?

The third-round match between Aryna Sabalenka and Sofia Kenin at the Italian Open 2025 will be broadcast on the Tennis Channel for viewers in India and the United States. Meanwhile, Sky Sports will air the tournament in the United Kingdom.

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