Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Australian Open 2025

Sabalenka advanced to her 10th Grand Slam semi-final, while Badosa will play her first.

Defending champion Aryna Sabalenka continued her dominant run at Melbourne Park as she prevailed over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, in a closely fought three-set clash. The Belarusian dropped her first set in the nine games she has played in 2025 highlighting her purple patch.

The big hitting top seed is set to face Paula Badosa in the semi-final of the Australian Open 2025. In an incredible sequence of events, the Spaniard knocked out title contender Coco Gauff in straight sets, to stir the biggest upset of the women’s singles draw.

Badosa demonstrated remarkable composure under pressure against the American, who struggled to find her serves and forehand winners for the majority of the contest. The Spaniard will mark her maiden Grand Slam semi-final appearance at the iconic Rod Laver Arena.

Match details

• Tournament: Australian Open 2025
• Round: Semi-final
• Date: January 23
• Venue: Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne
• Surface: Hard Court (Outdoor)

Preview

Mirra Andreeva, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, and now Paula Badosa—Sabalenka has been facing her friends at the business end of the marquee event. However, the 26-year-old made it clear that the Spaniard should expect no mercy when semi-final day arrives.

Badosa though, would hope to stun the top seed, having already downed the 2023 US Open winner. While Sabalenka has defeated Badosa in the pair’s previous five encounters, the Spaniard holds a 2-1 lead on hard courts. The 11th seed has had an impressive campaign losing only one set in the competition so far.

Playing her maiden Grand Slam semi-final will be no easy task for the Spaniard. Despite looking comfortable for the majority of her semi-final battle, nerves took over the 27-year-old when she was about to close the match. In the process, she nearly allowed Gauff to get back into the contest, but the American had too much work to do in the end.

Form

Aryna Sabalenka: W-W-W-W-W

Paula Badosa: W-W-W-W-W

Head-to-head record

Matches: 7

Sabalenka: 5

Badosa: 2

Aryna Sabalenka has dominated Paula Badosa in their previous encounters with a daunting 5-2 lead. The Belarusian has in fact, won the duo’s previous five encounters with their most recent clash being at the French Open. However, the Spaniard leads 2-1 on hard courts.

Stats

Aryna Sabalenka

• Sabalenka leads Badosa by 5-2 in the head-to-head battle.
• Sabalenka has an 9-0 win/loss record in the 2025 season. 
• Sabalenka is 22-5 at the Australian Open.

Paula Badosa

• Badosa trails Sabalenka by 2-5 in the head-to-head battle.
• Badosa has an 6-1 win/loss record in the 2025 season. 
• Badosa is 11–5 at the Australian Open.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Sabalenka -400, Badosa +333
• Spread:  Sabalenka -4.5 (1.83), Badosa +4.5 (1.91)
• Total sets: Over 20.5 (1.83), Under 20.5 (1.91)

Match Prediction

Paula Badosa defied odds and expectations, when she took down Coco Gauff in the quarter-final clash. Sabalenka, who is looking determined for a rare three peat is only two games away from clinching a rare milestone. The Belarusian is a sure shot favourite for the title and the all-important semi-final match but will certainly be challenged by the Spaniard.

The duo have known each other for a long time, and the 11th seed will be keen to expose Sabalenka’s weaknesses. An opportunity to advance to her maiden Grand Slam final awaits Badosa, and there’s no better way to achieve it than by defeating two of the best hard-court players (Gauff, Sabalenka) in the current WTA lineup.

However, given Sabalenka’s dream form and unstoppable run so far, nothing less than a miracle would be needed to stop the two-time Australian Open winner from reaching yet another Australian Open final.

Result: Aryna Sabalenka to win in straight sets.

Where and how to watch live streaming and TV broadcast of Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa, women’s singles semi-final match at Australian Open 2025?

The Sony Sports Network and their streaming service, SonyLiv, will broadcast the semi-final face-off between Aryna Sabalenka and Paula Badosa in India. 

Fans in the United Kingdom can watch the action unfold on Eurosport and Discovery Plus. The match will be broadcast live on ESPN, ESPN+ and Fubo for those residing in the United States.

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