Carlos Alcaraz's projected path to Japan Open 2026 final

Carlos Alcaraz is the reigning champion in Tokyo.

Following a successful Laver Cup campaign, Carlos Alcaraz is set to return to Tokyo to defend his Japan Open title.

It will mark his first ATP 500 event since a wrist injury in Barcelona sidelined him for nearly four months. The Spaniard defeated Taylor Fritz in a thrilling encounter to help Team Europe secure the title.

However, the scars of the US Open 2026 remain, where he suffered a heartbreaking fifth-set loss to Ben Shelton. Alcaraz will look to rediscover his best rhythm on his forehand and serve as he bids to return to his top form.

Despite being an ATP 500 event, the Spaniard faces a challenging draw in Tokyo. If he performs well, it will boost his confidence and send a strong message to other players that the seven-time Grand Slam champion is back at his best.

Here’s a look at the Spanish tennis star’s potential path to the final.

Carlos Alcaraz’s potential path to Japan Open title

Round 1 – Alex Michelsen

This is a tricky opener. Alex Michelsen of the USA, aged 22, arrives in red-hot form after his first major quarter-final at the US Open, and he has reached the last eight in Tokyo 2024.

The two have never met, so there is no head-to-head to lean on. The Spaniard will need to hit the ground running, or risk a shock first-round exit.

​Round 2 – Matteo Arnaldi or Rei Sakamoto

Italy’s Matteo Arnaldi, a Roland Garros semi-finalist this year, is the more dangerous of the two, but Alcaraz has won both of their prior meetings and should feel comfortable. Rei Sakamoto is the local favourite, but the reigning champion should pass this round with ease.

​Quarter-final – Tommy Paul, Denis Shapovalov or Alejandro Tabilo

Seventh seed Tommy Paul is the most likely opponent to open against Alejandro Tabilo. Alcaraz beat him at the US Open and now leads their head-to-head 7-2. Paul is a tough player on hard courts, but history shows that the latter has had little trouble against the former.

After losing the third round of the US Open, Denis Shapovalov of Canada returned to action at the Chengdu Open and reached the semi-final. The Spaniard has beaten the Canadian in straight sets in both of their previous meetings and will look to maintain that record if the pair meet in the quarter-finals.

Semi-final – Taylor Fritz, Lorenzo Musetti, Casper Ruud or Holger Rune

This is the round to watch out for. Third seed and 2022 champion Taylor Fritz could set up a rematch of last year’s Tokyo final against Alcaraz, with the Spaniard having prevailed 6-4, 6-4.

Alcaraz leads their head-to-head record 6-1, with Fritz’s only victory coming at the Laver Cup 2025. However, the Spaniard avenged that defeat just a few days ago at the same competition, edging Fritz in the deciding tie-break.

Lorenzo Musetti of Italy, who opens against Wimbledon semi-finalist Arthur Fery of Great Britain, could meet Fritz in the second round. Rune is ready to return to the ATP tour after recovering from an Achilles injury, so it will be interesting to see how far the Danish player goes in Tokyo.

Final – Rafael Jodar, Brandon Nakashima, Frances Tiafoe, or Jiri Lehecka

The bottom half boasts American firepower. USA’s Frances Tiafoe, the second seed, opens against local favourite Kei Nishikori, who is playing in Tokyo for the last time and will have the whole arena behind him.

Rafael Jodar, the 19-year-old Spaniard, may be the most interesting name. He has had a breakout season, reaching a hard-court final in Washington and the Montreal semi-finals, and he sits ninth in the Race to Turin. A final against a fellow Spaniard would be a fitting way to end the week.

Brandon Nakashima has had a great North American swing, reaching the final in Montreal and the semi-finals in Cincinnati. The American possesses an all-round game and could reach the final. He has yet to find a way past Alcaraz in their previous meetings.

Jiri Lehecka has been one of the ATP Tour’s quieter performers, although a string of disappointing results has seen the Czech slip outside the top 20. He has the game to cause a few upsets, but Alcaraz’s 3-1 head-to-head advantage would add another layer to a potential final between the two.

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