Preview: Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head | ATP Qatar Open 2026

Alcaraz to make semifinal debut in Doha against defending champion Andrey Rublev.

​Carlos Alcaraz continues his march towards a maiden title in Doha after eliminating Karen Khachanov in two hours, 26 minutes in the ATP Qatar Open 2026 qaurterfinals match. The World no. 1 will now take on the defending champion Andrey Rublev in the semifinals on February 20, Friday.

Against Khachanov, the Spaniard rallied from a set down to win, 6-7(3), 6-4, 6-3. He brushed off the time violation warning at 4-4 in the opening set to regroup in the second.

Neither player could break serve until the Spaniard took a 3-2 lead in the second set on the Khachanov serve. Alcaraz dialled back on his unforced errors, from 22 in the opener to just 12 across the next two sets.

Andrea Petkovic on Carlos Alcaraz’s argument with umpire Marija Cicak in Doha“It seems so out of character from what we’re used to seeing from Carlos Alcaraz”Petkovic: “It was a little strange. Also maybe he doesn’t know Marija Cicak well. She’s mostly chair umpired on the… pic.twitter.com/XiNHJSxCMc

— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) February 19, 2026

The top seed recorded 41 winners and won all his service games to reach his maiden semifinal in Doha and a perfect 10 in 2026. Alcaraz extended his winning streak against to 6-0 in their head-to-head.

Also Read: How much participation fee will Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz earn at ATP Qatar Open 2026?

Speaking of the Russian star Andrey Rublev who is a two-time champion at the venue, he is yet to drop a set at the ATP Qatar Open 2026 so far. He defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas, 6-3. 7-6(2), in 95 minutes to become the first semifinalist in Doha and even their head-to-head at 6-6.

Rublev d. Tsitsipas 6-3 7-6(2)Andrey reaches back-to-back Doha semifinals.8th straight win here…✅5th Doha SF✅7-2 in 2026Zero sets dropped this week..The defending champ is taking care of businessYou do not want to run into this version of Andrey❤ pic.twitter.com/sjfTYsTqlL

— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) February 19, 2026

Rublev, who claimed the title in 2024 and 2025, faces top seed Alcaraz in what will be their fifth encounter on tour.

Match Details

Tournament: Qatar Open 2026

Round: Semifinals

Date: February 20.

Venue: Khalifa International Tennis and Squash Complex, Doha, Qatar

Surface: Hard​

​Preview`

The World no.14 Rublev, as defending champion, has the most to lose when he takes on Alcaraz in the semi-finals. A win in the last four could edge him closer to the top 10, while a loss could see him end up close to exiting the top 20.

Alcaraz leads their head-to-head 4-1, winning their last three matches since the 2024 ATP Finals. The 22-year-old Spaniard is also a perfect 3-0 against Rublev on hard courts ahead of their semifinal clash.

Some Semi-Final set in Doha 🍿Who makes the #QatarExxonMobilOpen Final? ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/uG9rqT7Qld

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) February 19, 2026

The Spaniard is now one step closer to his second title of the season following his victory at Melbourne Park in January. It is his second appearance in Doha, and a title run looks all the more likely after his chief rival, Jannik Sinner, made an unceremonious exit in the quarterfinals.

Sinner was knocked out after a three-set loss to Jakub Mensik in their first career head-to-head. With Sinner eliminated, Mensik and Arthur Fils will compete for a place in the final.

Form

• Carlos Alcaraz: W-W-W-W-W
• Andrey Rublev: W-W-W-L-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 5
• Carlos Alcaraz: 4
• Andrey Rublev: 1

Stats

Carlos Alcaraz:

• Alcaraz  has a 10-0 win-loss record in the 2026 season.
• Alcaraz has a 5-1 win-loss record at the Qatar Open.
• Alcaraz has won 78% of matches played on hard courts.

Andrey Rublev:

• Rublev has a 7-2 win-loss record in the 2026 season.
• Rublev has a 19-5 win-loss record at the Qatar Open.
• Rublev has won 63% of matches played on hard courts.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Alcaraz: -667, Rublev +580.
• Spread: Alcaraz -4.5 (+104), Rublev +4.5 (-108).
• Total Games: Over 21 (-111), Under 21 (-101).

Match Prediction

The defending champion will be squaring off with a title hopeful when Rublev and Alcaraz cross paths in Friday’s semifinal at the 2026 Qatar Open. The Spaniard has won four of five hard-court finals and is 33-3 on the surface since his 2025 Cincinnati Open title run.

It is to be Rublev’s second straight semifinal in Qatar. He went on to win the ATP 500 event last season, his first since the 2024 Madrid Open. It is his fifth semifinal and eighth straight win at the venue.

Alcaraz was elevated as the overwhelming favourite to win the title after Jannik Sinner was taken out by Jakub Mensik in a major upset on Thursday.

Despite their head-to-head being one-sided and tilted in favour of Alcaraz, Rublev managed to push Alcaraz. A familiar script took hold with Rublev running out of steam, as the Spaniard walked away with wins in their three most recent matches.

Alcaraz’s versatile game proved decisive in those tight matches and is most likely to deliver another victory and a place in the title round for the top seed.

Result: Alcaraz to win in three sets.

Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of the semifinal between Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev at the Qatar Open 2026?

The semifinal between Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev at the 2026 Qatar Open will be broadcast on Fancode for Indian viewers. Residents of the United States can tune in to the Tennis Channel. Fans in the United Kingdom can stream the match on SkyUK.​​​

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