Carlos Alcaraz vs Brandon Nakashima prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Japan Open 2025

Alcaraz is close to overhauling his 2023 match wins in midst of the Asian swing.

Carlos Alcaraz got his debut in Japan off on the wrong foot when he survived an injury scare against Sebastian Baez in the opening round. The Spaniard sought a medical timeout to tend to his ankle en route to his straight-set victory over the Argentine.

However, there were no signs of any discomfort as the World No.1 raced to a 6-4, 6-2 seventy-nine-minute victory over Belgium’s Zizou Bergs in the second round. Alcaraz took the first set against Bergs in 34 minutes, braving a hiccup late in the opening set.

Alcaraz allowed Bergs back into the game when he dropped serve in the third and ninth games of the opening set. The Spaniard went on to break Bergs’ serve to close out the opening set in 34 minutes.  

The win over Bergs was top-seed Alcaraz’s 64th victory of the season, which leaves him one shy of his 2023 total of 65 match wins. He has already done one better, winning seven tour-level titles in 2025. His previous best was the six he won in 2023.

World #1 Carlos Alcaraz plays a very good match to beat Zizou Bergs 6-4, 6-3 and reach the QFs in his Tokyo debut.64-7 in 2025, 49-3 since april.53 tour-level QFs at 22yo. 13 (!) in 2025.Faces Nakashima tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/zvWLhsuMNI

— José Morgado (@josemorgado) September 27, 2025

American Brandon Nakashima put on a solid display in the day’s second match on centre court with a 7-5, 6-3 win over Marton Fucsovics. It took Nakashima one hour and 56 minutes to overcome the Hungarian qualifier.

Nakashimka, ranked 33rd in the world, played a tidy game with a 69% first serve percentage and converted three breakpoint opportunities to progress. The American will now face Alcaraz in their first meeting since 2021 as Nakshima looks to advance to the last eight and improve on his result from 2024.

Fucsovics served three double faults and lost serve early in the second set to find himself at 2-0. The Hungarian could not bridge the gap, and at 5-3, the writing was on the wall. Nakashimka held serve to take the win on his second match point for his second career win over Fucsovics.

Also Read: Jannik Sinner earns 200th hard-court victory, joins elite club of active players

Match details

• Tournament: Japan Open 2025
• Round: Quarter-finals
• Date: September 28
• Venue: Ariake Colosseum, Tokyo, Japan
• Surface: Hard Court

​​Preview

Alcaraz remains on track for an impressive debut in Tokyo after brushing aside Zizou Bergs. The latest win for the Spaniard will lay to rest any fitness concerns following an injury scare in the opening round.

While he was not at his best, Alcaraz did enough at the net to pull through and make the last eight at the ATP 500 event.

Brandon Nakashima finds himself in a familiar situation – looking to make the last eight on his third visit to the Japanese capital. He played the main draw in 2022 and 2024, exiting in the second round on both occasions. In 2023, he lost in the opening round of qualifying.

Nakashima has made progress by reaching the semi-finals at Acapulco, Houston, and Chengdu in the ongoing season. However, an opportunity to make his first tour-level final since 2022 has proven elusive despite breaking into the ATP top-30 for a career-high ranking of No. 29 in May this year.

At the other end of the men’s draw, the No. 2 seed Taylor Fritz is due to clash with fellow American Sebastian Korda in the last eight. Fritz defeated Alcaraz for the first time at the recently concluded Laver Cup.

If seedings hold true, Alcaraz and Fritz are all set to clash for the third time this season and for the first time in Asia.

Form

• Carlos Alcaraz: W-W-W-L-W
• Brandon Nakashima: W-W-L-W-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 1
• Carlos Alcaraz: 1
• Brandon Nakashima: 0

Stats

Carlos Alcaraz

• Alcaraz has a 64-6 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Alcaraz is making his debut in Tokyo
• Alcaraz has won 77% of matches played on hard courts

Brandon Nakashima

• Nakashima has a 30-23 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Nakashima has a 4-2 win-loss record in Tokyo
• Nakashima has won 56% of matches played on hard courts

Carlos Alcaraz vs Brandon Nakashima: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Alcaraz -1600, Nakashima +900
• Spread: Alcaraz -4.5 (-132), Nakashima +4.5 (+110)
• Total Games: Over 20.5 (+106), Under 20.5 (-125)
• 1st Set Winner: Alcaraz -550, Nakashima +510
• 1st Set Total Games: Over 9.5 (-150), Under 9.5 (+115)

Match prediction

Alcaraz is the man to beat at the moment as he gears up for his quarter-final match against Brandon Nakashima. Since his shock defeat to David Goffin at the Miami Masters, the Spaniard is on 49-3 and has won six of eight finals reached.

As it stands, Nakashima has to produce a high level of tennis if he is to get the better of Alcaraz. Despite playing solid tennis this week, Nakashima is unlikely to pose a hurdle for the pre-tournament favourite.

Result: Carlos Alcaraz to win in straight sets.

Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of Carlos Alcaraz vs Brandon Nakashima, quarter-final match at Japan Open 2025?

The third round between Carlos Alcaraz and Brandon Nakashima at the 2025 Japan Open will be available for Indian viewers on Discovery India. American viewers can tune in to the Tennis Channel, while Sky UK will broadcast the quarter-final meeting for viewers within the United Kingdom.

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