Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Japan Open 2025

Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud to renew their rivalry in Japan for a second face-off at an Asian venue.

Carlos Alcaraz accounted for Brandon Nakashima in straight sets to further trim the American presence in Japan. The Spaniard and the top seed denied Nakashima a semi-final spot with a 6-2, 6-4 win.

The 22-year-old Alcaraz did not face a single breakpoint while converting three breakpoint opportunities to turn the tide against Nakashima. Alcaraz had three matchpoint opportunities at 5-4 on the American’s serve, which he squandered. The top seed held serve in the next game on love to finish with a flourish inside the Ariake Coliseum and move to 3-0 in their head-to-head.

The final game of the match saw Alcaraz pull off an audacious drop shot when serving for the match, transforming an unplayable return from Nakashima into a winning point.

⚠️ STOP SCROLLING ⚠️This has to be seen to be believed 🤯@carlosalcaraz | @japanopentennis | #kinoshitajotennis pic.twitter.com/aDcRLwl1cC

— ATP Tour (@atptour) September 28, 2025

It took Alcaraz just 81 minutes to power past the American and reach his ninth consecutive semi-final. Nakashima was at the receiving end of 39 winners as he saw his campaign in Japan come to  a close.

The Spaniard has set up a last-four clash with Ruud, their second in Asia after their quarter-final clash in Beijing in 2023.

Nine semi-finals in a row 🤩Carlos Alcaraz powers into the final four in Japan, and makes it nine consecutive semi-finals at ATP events 💪 pic.twitter.com/cHGNXQdVWH

— TNT Sports (@tntsports) September 28, 2025

Next stop for Alcaraz is the last four, where he will take on Casper Ruud. It  is shaping up to be a good debut run in Tokyo for the World No. 1.  

It took just 58 minutes for Ruud to send Australian qualifier Aleksandar Vukic heading for the exit. The Norwegian turned in a clinical performance to defeat Vukic, 6-3, 6-2, to make the last four for the first time in Tokyo – an improvement from his second-round appearance in 2023.

Ruud broke Vukic in the eighth game of the opening set and continued in the same vein in the second. The fourth-seeded Ruud raced to a 4-1 lead in the second set by breaking the Australian’s serve in the third and fifth games.

From then, it was a matter of the Norwegian holding it together, which he did to wrap up the match on his first match point. Ruud’s victory in Tokyo makes them even at 1-1 in their head-to-head.

Match Details

• Tournament: Japan Open 2025
• Round: Quarter-finals
• Date: September 28
• Venue: Ariake Colosseum, Tokyo, Japan
• Surface: Hard

​​Preview

Casper Ruud is now in his first semi-final since the title run in Madrid back in April. He has lost just one set in Tokyo so far, in the opening round against Japanese wildcard Shintaro Mochizuki. Rudd has picked up the pace since then, recording straight-set wins against Matteo Berrettini and Vukic.

Post his title run in Madrid, Ruud was pegged back by Jannik Sinner in the quarter-finals at Rome. A straight set loss in the last eight to the Italian was a wake-up call for the Norwegian.

Casper Ruud plays another flawless match to beat Aleks Vukic 6-3, 6-2 in 58 minutes and reach the semifinals in Tokyo. First semifinal since the Madrid title.Back to his best. pic.twitter.com/EpklfBMHdM

— José Morgado (@josemorgado) September 28, 2025

A stern test awaits Ruud as the clock counts down to his last four face-off against Alcaraz. The Spaniard is playing in Japan for the first time and is 28-4 on hard courts this season. Alcaraz’s victory over Nakashima was his 65th win of the season, and the top seed remains on track for his eighth tour-level title.  

Alcaraz will set a personal record of most match wins in a single season if he finds a way past Ruud. The Spaniard is seeded to face American Taylor Fritz in the finals of the Japan Open. Fritz is to face compatriot Jenson Brooksby in the last four after defeating Seb Korda in an all-American quarter-final.

Form

• Carlos Alcaraz: W-W-W-W-W
• Casper Ruud: W-W-L-W-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 5
• Carlos Alcaraz: 4
• Casper Ruud: 1

Stats

Carlos Alcaraz:

• Alcaraz has a 65-7 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Alcaraz is making his debut in Tokyo.
• Alcaraz has won 77% of matches played on hard courts.

Casper Ruud:

• Ruud has a 32-12 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Ruud has a 4-3 win-loss record in Tokyo.
• Ruud has won 58% of matches played on hard courts.

ALSO READ: Carlos Alcaraz injury update: Will ankle scare cut short Spaniard’s Japan Open campaign?

Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Alcaraz -1600, Ruud +900
• Spread: Alcaraz -4.5 (-132), Ruud +4.5 (+110).
• Total Sets: Over 20.5 (+106), Under 20.5 (-125).
• 1st Set Winner: Alcaraz -550, Ruud +510.
• 1st Set Total Games: Over 9.5 (-150), Under 9.5 (+115).

Match Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz will look to make amends for his loss to Casper Ruud at the 2024 ATP Finals. He lost to Ruud in the round robin stage of the year-ending event in straight sets. It was the Spaniard’s first loss to Ruud in five meetings. Given his current form, the World No. 1 should have no trouble settling the score.

Alcaraz takes on Ruud, his doubles partner at the recently concluded Laver Cup, in their scheduled semi-final match at the Japan Open on Monday. The World No. 1 has the cushion of a 3-1 lead on hard courts and an overall head-to-head lead of 4-1.

While Ruud’s ability to play the long game could bother Alcaraz in patches, the Spaniard’s ability to improvise and fearless shotmaking will blunt any efforts by the Norwegian to control the narrative.

Result: Alcaraz to win in straight sets.

Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of the semi-final match between Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud at the Japan Open 2025?

The sewmi-final between Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud at the 2025 Japan Open will be available for Indian viewers on Discovery India. American viewers can tune in to the Tennis Channel, while Sky UK will broadcast the quarter-final meeting for viewers within the United Kingdom.

For more updates, follow Khel Now on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram; download the Khel Now Android App or IOS App and join our community on Whatsapp & Telegram