Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Italian Open 2025

Carlos Alcaraz will have a chance to reclaim the World No #2 spot by winning his semi-final meeting.

Carlos Alcaraz has had a busy week in Rome. After taking down Serbians Dusan Lajovic and Laslo Djere, the 22-year-old Spaniard defeated Karen Khachanov to reach the Italian Open quarter-finals. In doing so, he became the first man born in the 2000s to reach the last eight of all nine ATP 1000 events.

Despite an early hiccup against the in-form Jack Draper, Alcaraz stitched together a 6-4, 6-4 victory to make the semi-finals at the clay-court event for the first time. Draper took an early lead in the opening set and was up 4-2 before Alcaraz fought back to even the score. 

The pair traded breaks in the opening two games of the second set. Alcaraz seized an opportunity to break the Briton’s serve in the ninth game of the second set to close out the set 6-4 and, with it, the match. Should he take down Musetti in an hour and 38 minutes, Alcaraz will overtake Alexander Zverev as the new World No. 2 in the ATP rankings.

Italian fans were in for a treat on Wednesday when Lorenzo Musetti ousted defending champion Alexander Zverev. Musetti eased into his Italian Open semi-final after the 7-6(1), 6-4 win and will rise to No. 8 in the ATP Rankings on Monday.

Zverev’s 36 unforced errors and squandering four breakpoint opportunities gave Musetti his third straight head-to-head win over the German, which now stands at 3-1.    

Next up for Musetti is a chance to earn payback against Alcaraz for his defeat at Monte-Carlo. The 23-year-old Musetti trails Alcaraz 1-4 in ATP-level matches. Their first meeting was at the Challenger event in Trieste, which Alcaraz won.

Match Details

• Tournament: Italian Open 2025
• Round: Semi-final
• Date: May 16
• Venue: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy
• Surface: Clay

Preview

Alcaraz’s quarter-final match against Draper saw the Spaniard alternate between some brilliant shotmaking and lapses of concentration that let the Englishman wiggle out of tight corners. Alcaraz found his rhythm as the match progressed to hold off the Briton. The Spaniard extends his lead to 4-2 over Draper and records his 11th ATP Masters 1000 semi-final appearance.

Musetti cruised past Zverev without much trouble, although the Italian had to go through an opening set tie-break to win the first set. The No. 9 seed fought off three consecutive set points at 5-4, 40/0, on the return of serve during the two-hour, 15-minute encounter. 

Form

• Carlos Alcaraz: W-W-W-W-L
• Lorenzo Musetti: W-W-W-W-L

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 6
• Carlos Alcaraz: 5
• Lorenzo Musetti: 1

Stats

Carlos Alcaraz: 

• Alcaraz has a 28-5 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Alcaraz has a 5-1 win-loss record in Rome.
• Alcaraz has won 82% of matches played on clay courts.

Lorenzo Musetti:

• Musetti has a 20-6 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Musetti has a 9-4 win-loss record in Rome.
• Musetti has won 64% of matches played on clay courts.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti : Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Alcaraz -285, Musetti  +250.
• Spread: Alcaraz -3.5 (-130), Musetti +4.5 (-132). 
• Total games: Over 21.5 (-112), Under 21.5 (-109).

Match Prediction

Since losing to Musetti in their first tour-level meeting in the 2022 Hamburg Final, Alcaraz has won the next four matches between the pair. This includes a 3-6, 6-1, 6-0 victory in the Monte Carlo final a few weeks ago.

At Monte-Carlo, a visibly struggling Musetti took the opening set in the final but could not keep pace with Alcaraz. The Italian was a spectator for the next two sets as Alcaraz raced to his second title of the season. 

Musetti defeated two top ten players en route to the last four – Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev. He is yet to drop a set in the tournament, but Alcaraz is a force to be reckoned with on clay. The Spaniard is 13-1 on clay this season, and Musetti is toe-to-toe with a 14-2 record on the surface. Despite being evenly matched, home crowd support may not carry Musetti over the finish line on this occasion. 

Result: Carlos Alcaraz to win in three sets.

Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti, semi-final match at Italian Open 2025?

The semi-final match between Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti will be live telecast and streamed on the Sony Network in India. Sky UK will broadcast the event across the United Kingdom, while the Tennis Channel will do the same for tennis fans in the United States.

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