Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: French Open 2025

Alcaraz has a clear lead in head-to-head meetings against the American.

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Ben Shelton over four sets on Sunday in a closely fought contest to capture his 100th tour-level win on clay. Alcaraz’s fourth-round victory over Shelton denied the American a chance to join compatriots Tommy Paul and Frances Tiafoe in the last eight.

Defending champion Alcaraz emerged victorious 7-6(8), 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 after three hours and 19 minutes on Court Philippe-Chatrier. It was an entertaining clash between Alcaraz and Shelton that ended with the Spaniard extending his career head-to-head over Shelton to 3-0.

Alcaraz saved three set points in the decisive first set that saw both players come out swinging. The World No. #2 took the second set to go up 2-0 before Shelton gained a foothold by claiming the third. Alcaraz sealed the outcome in his favour by claiming 16/21 (76%) of first-serve points in the decider.

The 22-year-old from Murcia now advances to his fourth consecutive quarter-final at the clay-court major where Tommy Paul awaits. 

Paul has registered four straight matches in the men’s singles main draw in Paris for the first time. The American’s previous best was reaching the third-round last season, where he lost to Francisco Cerundolo in four sets. Paul, the No. #12 seed from New Jersey, will make his quarter-final debut after sending home Australian Alexei Popyrin, 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 to progress. 

Paul had to contend with two back-to-back five-setters against unseeded Hungarian Marton Fucsovics and the No. #24 seed from Russia, Karen Khachanov, to set up the first career meeting with Alcaraz at the French Open.

Match details

• Tournament: French Open 2025
• Round: Quarter-finals
• Date: June 3
• Venue: Roland Garros, Paris
• Surface: Clay

Preview

Tommy Paul is the first American man to make the last eight in Roland Garros since 2003. He is joined by Frances Tiafoe, marking the first time two Americans have made it this far since Jim Courier and Pete Sampras in 1996. 

A challenging start greeted Tommy Paul at the beginning of his French Open campaign when he was taken all the way by Fucsovics and Khachanov. The American brushed off a lower abdomen injury to overcome Alexei Popyrin in straight sets, but it could be a factor when he faces Alcaraz on Wednesday. 

Alcaraz became the first man born in the 2000s to win 100 matches on clay when he defeated Shelton in the round of 16. The Spaniard boasts an 84%-win percentage of clay thanks to a 100-19 win-loss record on the surface. This fortnight, Alcaraz will look to defend his 2024 crown and win his fourth title of the 2025 season along the way.

Also Read: Carlos Alcaraz follows ‘King of Clay’ Rafael Nadal to this elite French Open list

Form

• Carlos Alcaraz: W-W-W-W-W
• Tommy Paul: W-W-W-W-L

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 6
• Alcaraz: 4
• Paul: 2

Stats

Carlos Alcaraz

• Alcaraz has a 34-5 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Alcaraz has a 22-3 win-loss record in Paris
• Alcaraz has won 83% of matches played on clay courts

Tommy Paul

• Paul has a 25-8 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Paul has a 9-6 win-loss record in Paris
• Paul has won 65% of matches played on clay courts

Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Alcaraz -1000, Paul +750
• Spread: Alcaraz -7.5 (+105), Paul +7.5 (-110)
• Total sets: Over 32.5 (-110), Under 33.5 (-117)

Match prediction

It has been a clinical performance from Carlos Alcaraz so far in Paris as he pursues a successful title defence. Tommy Paul, his adversary in the last eight arrives armed with a 12-3 record on the surface this year, while the Spaniard is 19-1 during the same period. Alcaraz’s sole loss on his favourite surface came to Holger Rune at the Barcelona Open finals in April, where he suffered a rare straight-set loss.  

The American’s recent clay-court performance is noteworthy, however, Alcaraz holds the cards. Alcaraz enjoys a 4-2 lead over Paul, having won their last three matches going back to the Cincinnati Masters in 2023. This includes straight sets win by Alcaraz at the Paris Olympics last year, their only previous meeting on clay.

Paul took a set of World No. #1 Jannik Sinner in Rome to highlight his improved clay-court performance. With his new found confidence, Paul could trouble Alcaraz, especially at the net.   

Should Alcaraz successfully defend his Roland Garros title, he will become just the third man to do so this century after Gustavo Kuerten and Rafael Nadal. The Spaniard will look to carve out a strong start and an early lead against Paul.

Even though the American had proved to be a handful for the Spaniard in their previous meetings, those matches took place on hard courts. While Paul can make the game interesting, Alcaraz remains the favourite to make the final in the lower half of the draw.

Result: Carlos Alcaraz to win in four sets.

Where and how to watch live streaming and TV broadcast of Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul, men’s singles quarter-final match at French Open 2025?

The Sony Network will broadcast the quarter-final between Carlos Alcaraz and Tommy Paul at the ongoing French Open in India. Residents of the United Kingdom can tune in to Eurosport for live action from Paris. Viewers in the United States have the option of live streaming the event on TNT, Max, or Tru TV.

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