Could Carlos Alcaraz reclaim World No. 1 ranking from Jannik Sinner at Cincinnati Open 2025?

Carlos Alcaraz has a chance to close the gap at the Cincinnati Open 2025.

World No. 1 Jannik Sinner has an uphill task ahead of him, as he must defend 3,000 points during the remainder of the North American swing — at the Cincinnati Open and the US Open. The Italian will certainly be up for the challenge, as he remains the best hard-court ATP player at the moment.

Sinner has played five events in 2025 so far, winning two and reaching the finals of two more tournaments. The World No. 1 has barely put a foot wrong and will be the favourite for the rest of the 2025 calendar year. Carlos Alcaraz has had a favourable head-to-head record against the top seed on hard courts. Sinner is a different beast.

The race to the top is heating up, and Alcaraz knows this is his best chance to do everything he can — and hope for a bit of luck to go his way. The Spaniard has already made his intentions clear: to finish the year as the World No. 1, and he would like to get there sooner rather than later.

Current ATP rankings-

Sinner is currently on 10,880 points, while Alcaraz is 2,240 points behind, positioned at 8,640. Both have won their opening rounds and are expected to enjoy deep runs. While Sinner attempts to retain his crown, Alcaraz has lost his opening match in 2024 against Gael Monfils.

As a result, the Spaniard is not defending any points in the Cincinnati Open 2025 and is expected to make significant gains even if he does not go the distance. However, the 22-year-old has a favorable draw ahead of him, and he would be disappointed if he fails to reach the summit clash.

In the best-case scenario for Alcaraz, he wins the tournament and rises to 9,590 points. Should Sinner beat Gabriel Diallo to reach the fourth round, he will move to 10,930 points in the ATP rankings. However, if the Italian suffers an early upset and ends the Cincinnati Masters at 10,880, the deficit between them would be reduced to 1,290.

If Sinner wins the title again, he will have 11,830 points. In a likely scenario of a final between Sinner and Alcaraz, these would be their points and eventual difference based on the result:

If Alcaraz manages to clinch the Cincinnati trophy for the first time in his career, then a successful US Open stint could see him end Sinner’s reign of 60 consecutive weeks at the top of the ATP charts.

Who is Carlos Alcaraz’s next opponent?

Carlos Alcaraz and Hamad Medjedovic will meet for the first time on the ATP Tour in the third round of the 2025 Cincinnati Open, with both players entering the clash in contrasting form.

The second-seeded Alcaraz, who owns a 49–6 season record, needed three sets to overcome Damir Dzumhur after a dominant start, while debutant Medjedovic has yet to drop a set, dispatching Tallon Griekspoor and Aleksandar Kovacevic with powerful serving and aggressive baseline play.

Who is Jannik Sinner’s next opponent?

Sinner is gearing up to face the 30th seed, Gabriel Diallo, who was recently defeated by World No. 4 Taylor Fritz at the Canadian Open in front of his home crowd in the round of 32. This will be the first-ever meeting between the five-time Grand Slam champion and the Canadian star.

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