Daniil Medvedev vs Holger Rune prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Indian Wells Open 2025

Medvedev is a two-time finalist at Indian Wells Open.

Daniil Medvedev has advanced to a third consecutive Indian Wells Open semi-final, and the big question is whether it will be third time lucky for the Russian, who lost in the finals to Carlos Alcaraz, in both 2023 and 2024. In his quarter-final clash against Arthur Fils, the Russian won the first set easily but lost the second.

In an intense tiebreak, Fils messed up a straight-forward volley to see Medvedev through, and the fifth seed leaped in joy after overcoming a tough battle. The Indian Wells Open 2025 could see the former US Open champion break his title draught, having not won anything since 2024.

Also Read: Daniil Medvedev’s career in numbers: Records, stats and titles

For a final berth, Medvedev will take on Holger Rune, who like the Russian, last won a title back in 2023. While Medvedev struggled for form, the Danish lacked consistency. Rune though, seemed an improved player at the Australian Open, where he even challenged Jannik Sinner in the fourth round before bowing out of the tournament.

After a string of setbacks since his campaign in Australia, Rune rediscovered his form at the ATP-1000 event, securing a spot in his sixth Masters 1000 semi-final. This Sunday’s clash could be one of the most pivotal matches of the 21-year-old’s career.

Match details

• Tournament: Indian Wells Open 2025
• Stage: Semi-final
• Date: March 15 (Saturday)
• Time: TBD
• Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California
• Surface: Hard Court (outdoor)

Also Read: Top five youngest men’s singles champions at Indian Wells Open

Preview

Rune has had to contend with two top-20 seeds in his campaign so far, including Ugo Humbert, Dubai Open winner Stefanos Tsitsipas, and then defeated Tallon Griekspoor, who knocked out the top seed Alexander Zverev in the first round.

This semi-final encounter will be a re-match of last year’s quarter-final at the desert, which the Russian won comfortably in straight sets. While Rune will hope to avenge that defeat, he would be aware of Medvedev’s success at the Tennis Paradise.

The Russian is extremely unpredictable, as was seen in his previous round against Fils, where he went from cruise mode to suddenly a player who was all over the place, before eventually getting his act together in the third set. Rune’s aggressive brand of play will come to the fore yet again and the Dane’s focus will be on limiting unforced errors, if he were to make his Indian Wells final debut.

Form

• Daniil Medvedev: W-W-W-L-W
• Holger Rune: W-W-W-W-L

Head-to-Head

• Matches – 3
• Medvedev – 2
• Rune – 1

Also Read: Indian Wells Open 2025: All you need to know about prize money and points on offer

Stats

Daniil Medvedev

• Medvedev has 20-7 win-loss record in 2025 so far
• Medvedev has a 12-5 win-loss record at Indian Wells
• Medvedev has won 83% of matches played on hard courts

Holger Rune

• Rune has a 9-4 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Rune has a 8-4 win-loss record in Indian Wells
• Rune has won 62% of matches played on hard courts

Daniil Medvedev vs Holger Rune: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Medvedev -160, Rune +130
• Spread: Medvedev -3.5 (1.95), Rune +3.5 (1.85)
• Total Games: Over 22.5 (-110), Under 22.5 (-120)

Prediction

On hard courts, Medvedev is far better as compared to Rune. Having said that, the Danish has performed incredibly well so far, with his blistering forehand being his biggest weapon. The 21-year-old’s ability to hit powerful down-the-line shots, and switch directions on his forehand seamlessly, makes him stand out.

Medvedev, known for his unorthodox playing style, brings invaluable big-stage experience and a strong grasp of California’s conditions. This semi-final promises a thrilling clash of contrasting styles, packed with drama and action.

Result: Daniil Medvedev will win in three sets.

Where and how to watch live streaming and TV broadcast of Daniil Medvedev vs Holger Rune, men’s singles semi-final match at Indian Wells Open 2025?

The Sony Network will cover the Indian Wells Open semi-final match between Medvedev and Rune in India, complemented by its streaming service, SonyLiv. Viewers in the United Kingdom can tune in to Sky UK for live coverage of the Indian Wells tournament. Tennis Channel and WTA TV offers live streaming of the ATP-1000 event within the United States.

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