Iga Swiatek's projected path to US Open 2025 final

Swiatek has won back-to-back finals at Cincinnati and Wimbledon before arriving in New York.

Iga Swiatek is eyeing her second US Open title, and her recent form is suggesting that it is very much possible this time. The World No. 2 comes into Flushing Meadows on the back of her Cincinnati Masters victory, which also helped her overtake Coco Gauff in the rankings.

The Polish star has already warmed up on the US Open courts, reaching the mixed doubles final alongside Casper Ruud. However, they fell short to doubles specialist Sara Errani-Andrea Vavassori in the summit clash.

The US Open 2022 champion has had a season of ups and downs in 2025 so far. She failed to convert four semi-final appearances early in the season into a title, including at Roland Garros, where she was the three-time defending champion.

Then unfolded a spectacular run at Wimbledon, where Swiatek double bagelled Amanda Anisimova for her maiden SW19 title run.

At Cincinnati, the Pole clinched the title by beating Italian Jasmine Paolini in straight sets to secure the No. 2 seeding in New York. That’s when the 24-year-old Swiatek replaced French Open champion Coco Gauff as World No. 2 in the WTA Rankings.

Iga Swiatek wins the Cincinnati Open for the first time, earning her 24th career title! pic.twitter.com/6iUSthNHJb

— US Open Tennis (@usopen) August 19, 2025

The last time Polish tennis star won back-to-back finals was in Rome and Paris last season. She is at 6-0 in Grand Slam finals after her victory at Wimbledon. She has now drawn alongside Monica Seles, who won her first six finals between the 1990 French Open and the 1992 French Open.

Iga Swiatek has been blessed with an easy draw in New York, courtesy of her No. 2 seeding. Her rise in the WTA Rankings means any confrontation with defending champion Aryna Sabalenka will be kept at bay until at least the finals.  

Swiatek will target her seventh Grand Slam and second US Open title in New York. Let’s take a look at her potential route to glory at the US Open 2025.

Iga Swiatek’s projected path-

Round 1 – Emiliana Arango

Swiatek, now a six-time Grand Slam champion, faces unseeded Colombian Emiliana Arango for the first time on tour. Arango is making her US Open debut and secured her first WTA Tour title at the WTA 125 event in Cancun in February.

Arango, 24, made a winning Grand Slam debut in Roland Garros by defeating Alexandra Eala, 6-0, 2-6, 6-3 to make the second round. She could go no further, as a straight set loss to Qinwen Zheng ended Arango’s stay in Paris.

Also Read: US Open 2025 Mixed Doubles payouts: How much did Iga Swiatek, Casper Ruud & others earn in prize money?

Round 2 – Suzan Lamens

Swaitek is in for another easy day at the office in round two, where she is likely to cross paths with unseeded Dutchwoman Suzan Lamens. The 26-year-old Lamens made her Grand Slam debut at the 2025 Australian Open, where she reached the second round.

An opening round defeat in Paris and a second round appearance at Wimbledon followed for the World No. 63 from the Netherlands. Lamens’ best result of 2025 was her semi-final appearance in Rouen, France.

Round 3 – Anna Kalinskaya

The third round of the US Open could pit Swiatek against Anna Kalinskaya in a rematch of their Cincinnati Open quarter-finals. The World No. 2 defeated Kalinskaya, 6-3, 6-4, to avenge her loss to the Russian in Dubai after more than a year.

Kalinskaya went on to reach the final but was denied the Dubai Open title by Jasmine Paolini. The 26-year-old Russian is the first-seeded player Swiatek will face at the hard-court major. The 2024 Australian Open gave Kalinskaya her best result at a Grand Slam – a last-eight appearance at the venue.  

Round 4 – Ekaterina Alexandrova

A convincing 4-2 head-to-head lead over Ekaterina Alexandrova hands Swiatek the advantage should the two players meet in the fourth round. It will be an interesting contest as Swiatek and Alexandrova are tied at 2-2 on hard courts. At their last hard-court meeting in Miami, Alexandrova breezed past Swiatek to register a 6-4, 6-2 win in the round of 16.

Alexandrova’s absence from a second-week foray at a Grand Slam event affects her chances of finding a way past Swiatek in the likelihood of their first career meeting at a major.

​Quarter-final – Amanda Anisimova

Swiatek will have fond memories of her clash with Amanda Anisimova at the 2025 Wimbledon finals, while the opposite will be true for Anisimova. The Pole recorded a historic double bagel win over the American – the first time such a scoreline was recorded at SW19 in the Open Era.

The 1988 French Open is the only other Grand Slam final decided by a double bagel in the Open Era. Steffi Graf defeated Natasha Zverev for the title that year.

It was Amanda’s best result at a Grand Slam. The New Jersey native’s final run in London surpassed her semi-final appearance at the 2019 French Open and ushered her into the top ten of the WTA with a career-high ranking of No. 7.

​Semi-final – Coco Gauff / Madison Keys

Swiatek shares space in the draw’s bottom half with two Americans – Coco Gauff and Madison Keys. Both Gauff and Keys are Grand Slam champions, making any potential face-off a real contest. Gauff will pose a serious threat to Swiatek, even though Swiatek leads their head-to-head record 11-4.

Gauff has beaten Swiatek three times in a row, starting with the 2024 WTA Finals in Riyadh. Then two more wins at the United Cup and Madrid Open, both in 2025. The loss in Madrid would have stung for Swiatek, as she managed to win just two games in their last four meeting at the clay court event.

The story is one of easy dominance over Madison Keys, thanks to a 5-2 head-to-head advantage. Keys has stepped away from the limelight after winning the 2025 Australian Open. The American made a quarter-final exit in Paris, followed by a third-round exit at Wimbledon.

Also Read: Carlos Alcaraz’s projected path to US Open 2025 final

Their only Grand Slam meeting came in Melbourne, with Keys winning in three sets. However, Swiatek will be rejuvenated after pocketing two titles in the space of a month, while Keys is some way off from the player who won in Melbourne.

​Final – Aryna Sabalenka / Jessica Pegula

It is a case of Swiatek saving the best for the last. The Pole is seeded to face either Aryna Sabalenka or Jessica Pegula in the title round at Flushing Meadows. Swiatek is closing in on the top spot in the WTA Rankings and has Sabalenka in her crosshairs

Sabalenka and Pegula faced off in the 2024 US Open finals, while Swiatek made a quarter-final exit. The World No. 2 lost to eventual finalist Jessica Pegula in straight sets.

The 24-year-old Swiatek owns a favourable head-to-head against both players – an 8-5 advantage over Sabalenka and a slender 6-5 lead over Pegula.  

Both Pegula and Sabalenka registered victories against the Pole in the ongoing season. Sabalenka, the US Open top seed, bundled out Swiatek in the French Open semi-finals. Pegula defeated Swiatek in the finals of the grass court event at Bad Homburg.

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