Carlos Alcaraz's projected path to US Open 2025 final

Alcaraz has won a tour-leading six titles in the 2025 season.

World No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz began his 2025 season not with a Grand Slam trophy, but by winning the ATP 500 Rotterdam Open. It was his first indoor hard court title and the first of six. The Spaniard’s haul includes ATP 1000 titles at Monte-Carlo, Rome, and Cincinnati.

While Alcaraz fell short of defending his Wimbledon title (lost to Jannik Sinner in the finals), he held on to his Roland Garros crown in dramatic fashion. The World No. 2 survived three championship points en route to his 4-6, 6-7(4), 6-4, 7-6(3), 7-6(2) victory. Clocking five and a half hours, it was the longest match in French Open history.

The Spaniard defeated Sinner at home to win the Italian Open in Rome for another ATP 1000 title. In Cincinnati, he picked up his eighth Masters win after Sinner retired, and added a Queen’s title over Jiri Lehecka.

If he wins the US Open, Alcaraz will set a personal milestone with a seventh title this season, surpassing his 2023 tally. He is 54 match wins, equalling last season’s tally, but 11 short of his 2023 total of 65. Alcaraz will have the first two rounds to get his eye in, where his first two opponents will be unseeded.

Should he emerge victorious at Flushing Meadows, he will join Rafael Nadal with multiple US Open titles to his name. Of greater significance would be the fact that he denied Sinner a successful title defense in New York. The top two seeds are slated to meet in the finals, which at this point has an air of inevitability.

Let’s take a look at his potential route to glory at the US Open 2025.

Carlos Alcaraz’s projected path-

Round 1 – Reilly Opelka

Alcaraz faced big-serving Reilly Opelka in the first round of the US Open and emerged victorious with a straight sets, 6-4, 7-5, 6-4 win. It was the Spaniard’s first career meeting against the 6’11” Opelka. Despite some towering serves by Opelka, Alcaraz handled managed to impress throughout the match.

The Michigan native last won a title in 2022, when he defeated fellow American John Isner at the WTA 250 event in Houston. Opelka’s best result at the majors is a fourth-round appearance at the 2021 US Open.

Also Read: US Open 2025: What Carlos Alcaraz must do to reclaim World No. 1 ranking from Jannik Sinner?

​Round 2 – Mattia Bellucci

Alcaraz’s second-round opponent was Mattia Bellucci. The World No.2 comfortable defeated the Italian opponent with 6-1, 6-0, 6-3 victory in just 96 minutes at Arthur Ashe Stadium. Alcaraz unleashed 32 winners and won 86% of his first-serve points, while Bellucci struggled with consistency, hitting 11 winners to 35 unforced errors.

This marked Bellucci’s second main-draw appearance at Flushing Meadows. Alcaraz’s 15-0 record against Italians since early 2023 would certainly have been a daunting statistic for him.

Earlier in the year, he lost in the third round at Wimbledon to Cameron Norrie in three sets. The Italian was a semi-finalist at the 2025 Rotterdam Open (lost to Alex de Minaur) and won the Challenger title at Sumter, South Carolina, by defeating Alexander Shevchenko when the Kazakh retired in the second set.

Round 3 – Luciano Darderi

Carlos Alcaraz defeated Luciano Darderi in the third round of the US Open 2025 with a score of 6-2, 6-4, 6-0. The win marked the Spaniard’s 80th Grand Slam win and his 20th at the Flushing Meadows.

During the match, Alcaraz briefly paused for a medical timeout at 5-4 in the second set due to a right knee scare, which he later described as purely precautionary. He quickly then came back stronger and broke Darderi again to take the set, and dominated the third set, winning the match in 1 hour 44 minutes.

The 23-year-old Italian has won three titles this year at Marrakech, Bastad, and Umag – all clay court events. His maiden title at Cordoba last season was also on clay, underlining his affinity for the surface.

Darderi is yet to post a win at Flushing Meadows, having lost to Sebastian Baez in the opening round last year.

Round 4 – Arthur Rinderknech

Alcaraz is set to face the 30-year-old French Arthur Rinderknech in the fourth round. The Spaniard has won his all three matches against Rinderknech to take a 3-0 lead in their head-to-head.

This is Rinderknech’s first time reaching the fourth round of a Grand Slam. He has had a challenging year on the main tour but has performed well at the US Open, defeating Roberto Carballes Baena, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, and Benjamin Bonzi to reach the round of 16.

The last time Alcaraz and the current world No. 82 faced each other was in the Queens Club 2025 quarterfinals, where the World No. 2 emerged victorious 7-5, 6-4.

​Quarter-final – Adrian Mannarino

Former US Open champion and the current Cincinnati Open winner, Carlos Alcaraz, and the French veteran Adrian Mannarino, in what would be their second career meeting.

The 37-year-old Mannarino reached the round of 16 after Ben Shelton was forced to retire from their third-round match at the 2025 US Open due to a left shoulder injury with the score at 3-6, 6-3, 4-6, 6-4.

Mannarino had earlier defeated Tallon Griekspoor in the first round 7-5, 6-4, 6-0, and Jordan Thompson in the second round 6-4, 6-7 (5-7), 6-3, 6-3.

Adrian Mannarino and Carlos Alcaraz have faced each other only once before at the ATP Masters 1000 Madrid where the Spaniard won the match taking a 1-0 lead in their head-to-head record.

Semi-final – Novak Djokovic / Taylor Fritz

Alcaraz will be the stronger pick in the projected semi-final against Novak Djokovic. Djokovic arrived in New York not having played any matches since Wimbledon. At 38, he may struggle with the exertion of playing on hard courts.

Djokovic holds a 5-3 edge over Alcaraz, having defeated the Spaniard to take gold at the 2024 Paris Olympics and in the 2025 Australian Open quarter-finals. The Serbian is chasing his first Grand Slam since the 2023 US Open, and stands a win away from winning a record 25th major title.

Alcaraz will be the overwhelming favourite to one-up top-ranked American Taylor Fritz – a 3-0 lead over Fritz lends weight to that argument. Fritz gave Alcaraz a tough fight for the first time in the Wimbledon semi-finals last month, eventually winning a set from his Spanish opponent, something he had never done before.

Fritz made the US Open finals in 2024 before losing to Jannik Sinner. Despite his loss, he became the first American to make the title round since Andy Roddick in 2006. Whether Fritz can relive the milestone hinges on his defeating Alcaraz for the first time.  

Final – Jannik Sinner / Jack Draper

A Carlos Alcaraz – Jannik Sinner summit clash will see the duo sparring for the third Grand Slam of the season. Sinner will be pursuing his third major of the season.

Having won the Australian Open and Wimbledon, the World’s No. 1 player will aim to become the seventh man in the Open Era to win three Grand Slam titles in a single season.

For the second year running, the Alcaraz–Sinner duopoly looks to sweep all four majors. Last season, they shared the spoils, both winning two Grand Slams. Alcaraz leads Sinner 9-5 and is 6-2 on hard courts against the World No. 1.    

A 4-2 overall head-to-head and a 3-1 lead on hard courts mark the Carlos Alcaraz – Jack Draper rivalry, with the Spaniard in the lead. They have met thrice in the ongoing season, with Alcaraz having won their last meeting in Rome.

The British left-hander upset Alcaraz in the 2025 Indian Wells semi-finals, leaving the Spaniard one short of a three-peat at the venue

Draper was a semi-finalist in New York last season. He made the last four without dropping a set before his three-set loss to eventual champion Jannik Sinner. Two of Draper’s tour-level titles have come on hard courts. Aside from Indian Wells, the other hard-court win came in Vienna in 2024.

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