Jack Draper vs Lorenzo Musetti prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Madrid Open 2025

Draper and Musetti reach new highs in the ATP Live Rankings this week.

Jack Draper dispatched Matteo Arnaldi 6-0, 6-4 on Thursday to mark his first clay-court ATP 1000 semi-final appearance. The left-hander will face Lorenzo Musetti in the last four after preventing an all-Italian semi-final in Madrid. Musetti will play his first semi-final at the Madrid Open Masters. His previous best appearance was in the round of 16 in 2022. 

Draper entered the top ten after his title run at Indian Wells earlier this year. The Englishman recorded the win over Matteo Arnaldi in one hour and 17 minutes in their first tour-level meeting. The No. 5 seed got off to a flyer, taking the opening set without dropping a game in 25 minutes and converting four breakpoint opportunities en route to victory. 

Over at Manolo Santana Stadium, Musetti ended Gabriel Diallo’s hopes of making the semis with a 6-4, 6-3 win in 90 minutes. This was Musetti’s second win over lucky loser Diallo in 2025 and ushered him into the ATP Top Ten. The Italian is 8th in the ATP Live Rankings and has won nine of his last 10 matches, his only loss coming to Carlos Alcaraz in the Monte-Carlo final. 

Match Details

• Tournament: Madrid Open 2025 Men’s Singles
• Round: Semi-final
• Date: May 2
• Venue: Manzanares Park, Madrid, Spain
• Surface: Clay

Preview

Both the semi-finalists of the Madrid Open are in great form and have not lost a single set in the tournament so far. Jack Draper, seeded five, is the highest seed left in the tournament, followed by Lorenzo Musetti (10). The other two semi-finalists are Francisco Cerundolo (14) and Casper Ruud (20).

The Draper-Musetti duo never played at this level before and never on clay. The British southpaw has won all three matches against Musetti, all played on indoor hard courts. 

Their head-to-head rivalry, which began in 2022, saw Draper win two of the three matches in straight sets—at Sofia in 2023 and Vienna in 2024. Musetti has more clay-court experience than his British rival and has made a strong start to the European clay-court swing thanks to a title-round appearance at Monte-Carlo.

Form

• Jack Draper: W-W-W-W-L
• Lorenzo Musetti: W-W-W-W-L

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 3
• Jack Draper: 3
• Lorenzo Musetti: 0

Also Read: Top five oldest men’s singles champions at Madrid Open

Stats

Jack Draper:

• Draper has an 18-4 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Draper has a 6-2 win-loss record in Madrid.
• Draper has won 45% of matches played on clay courts.

Lorenzo Musetti:

• Musetti has a 16-5 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Musetti has a 6-3 win-loss record in Madrid.
• Musetti has won 63% of matches played on clay courts.

Jack Draper vs Lorenzo Musetti: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Draper -185, Musetti +175.
• Spread: Draper -2.5 (-115), Musetti +3.5 (+132). 
• Total games: Over 22.5 (-103), Under 22.5 (-112).

Match Prediction

Draper took the easy route to the last four and has not spent more than 90 minutes on court in any of his matches. He benefited from Matteo Berrettini’s third-round retirement before easing past Tommy Paul. He extinguished Matteo Arnaldi’s hopes of making the last four with another clinical performance. 

Musetti faced tough tests against Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Stefanos Tsitsipas in the first two rounds, where he had to force a tie-break in each match to secure victory. Alex de Minaur and Gabriel Diallo posed no threat, the Italian similarly won both matches. 

While Musetti has a better record than Draper on clay, the Brit is quickly acclimatising, and the faster playing conditions in Madrid are likely to suit Draper’s game better.

Result: Draper will win in straight sets. 

Where and how to watch the live telecast and live streaming of Jack Draper and Lorenzo Musetti’s semi-final match at the Madrid Open 2025?

The semi-final round match between Jack Draper and Lorenzo Musetti will be live telecast and streamed on the Sony Network in India. Sky UK will broadcast the event across the United Kingdom, while the Tennis Channel will do the same for tennis fans in the United States.

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