Jannik Sinner's projected path to Italian Open 2025 final

Jannik Sinner will remain the World No. 1 when he turns up to play.

Jannik Sinner will return to action after a three-month ban, he is set to mark his return to professional tennis at the ongoing Italian Open 2025. Despite his long absence, he remains the world No. 1 and would like to regain some form ahead of the crucial French Open 2025.

However, with a tough draw in place, and his first professional tournament after three months, the Italian faces a stern challenge ahead. Let’s take a look at his potential path to the Italian Open 2025 final.

Round One: Bye

Round 2: Mariano Navone / Federico Cinà

Sinner could kickstart his campaign against Mariano Navone, marking their first-ever battle. Federico Cinà, a fellow Italian, emerges as the other potential opponent. Cina made his debut in Miami, and lacks experience.

Either way, the top seed is expected to advance to the third round, with the sole focus being on how well Sinner is moving on the court and whether he can execute his winners with the same effect as before the three-month ban.

Round 3: Davidovich Fokina / Zizou Bergs

Davidovich Fokina, seeded 25th, has pulled off some big upsets this season, beating Andrey Rublev in Barcelona and Jack Draper in Monte Carlo.

Moreover, the Spaniard gave top seed Alexander Zverev a massive scare in Madrid, and hence could come across as a threat for Sinner, who could be scratchy and still finding his way in the competition.

Round 4: Francisco Cerundolo / Frances Tiafoe

20th seed Francisco Cerundolo has been in decent form, with notable wins over Alex de Minaur and Casper Ruud this season. Additionally, the Argentine reached the semi-finals of the recently concluded Madrid Open and is expected to be Sinner’s likely opponent in the round of 16 clash.

15th seed Frances Tiafoe is another possible opponent, but the American has been in poor form so far and has an underwhelming record on clay.

Quarter-final: Casper Ruud / Ben Shelton / Matteo Berrettini

Jannik Sinner’s biggest test upon his return will come from recent Madrid Open champion Casper Ruud, who won his first ATP Masters 1000 title by defeating Draper in the final. The Norwegian is in formidable form, having dropped just one set on his way to glory, thereby re-entering the top-10 ATP rankings.

Matteo Berrettini has endured an inconsistent season so far and appears unlikely to make a deep run into the quarter-finals. Meanwhile, Ben Shelton stands out as another strong contender in the draw. A potential clash with Jannik Sinner is expected to be exciting, although the Italian has dominated their rivalry, winning all four of their previous meetings.

Semi-final: Taylor Fritz / Alex De Minaur / Tommy Paul / Andrey Rublev

The road gets challenging, but if Jannik Sinner qualifies for the semi-finals on his return, it will signal that the Italian is in tremendous form and is back to his best. Taylor Fritz, the favorite based on seedings, is unlikely to pose a huge challenge on clay.

A re-match of the Australian Open quarter-final could be on the cards, with Alex de Minaur entering the Rome event on the back of consistent outings. However, the Australian has yet to register a win over a top-15 player so far. Tommy Paul and Andrey Rublev have fallen short in the last few contests, which is why Sinner is expected to emerge victorious.

Final: Alexander Zverev / Carlos Alcaraz / Jack Draper

The advantage of being World No. 1 is that you don’t have to face Alexander Zverev or Carlos Alcaraz until the final. Carlos Alcaraz is set to make his comeback after losing the finals to Lorenzo Musetti and subsequently missing the Madrid Open due to injury.

His battle against Jannik Sinner is easily the spiciest and most looked forward to contest for the next few years, with two of the brightest tennis talents locking horns.

Alexander Zverev faces a tough challenge to defend his World No.2 ranking as he aims to retain the title he won in Rome last year. The conditions in Rome are nothing new for the German, who is a two-time Italian Open champion.

Jack Draper, who recently became only the fourth Brit to break into the ATP top-5, narrowly missed out on capturing his second Masters 1000 title of the season.

One of the most promising talents of his generation, Draper has firmly established himself as a serious contender and could well emerge as the third major finalist in the upcoming tournaments.

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