Jannik Sinner's projected path to ATP Qatar Open 2026 final

Sinner is making his tournament debut in Doha this year.

Jannik Sinner will be making his Qatar Open debut in 2026, having missed this event last year due to a three-month doping ban. The Italian returns to action after his Australian Open 2026 semi-final defeat to Novak Djokovic.

The Italian will enjoy the opportunity to play without any pressure, with no points to defend. He will aim for a solid comeback after a setback in Melbourne, as he hopes to once again climb to the top of the ATP rankings charts.

With a tough challenge ahead, let’s take a look at his potential path to the Qatar Open 2026 final.

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Round of 32: Tomas Machac

Four-time Grand Slam champion Sinner will make his tournament debut against No. 31 Tomas Machac in Doha. This marks the third career meeting between the two right-handers, with Sinner holding a perfect 2-0 head-to-head edge, including a 6-4, 6-2 quarter-final win at the 2024 Miami Open and a 6-4, 7-5 semi-final victory at the 2024 Shanghai Masters.

The 24-year-old Italian has been handed a tough first-round match, however given his superior talent and skills, he is expected to prevail and advance to the next round.

Round of 16: Alexei Popyrin

Alexei Popyrin could be Sinner’s next opponent. The Australian has found it tough going in the 2026 season, with opening-round exits in Adelaide, Melbourne, and Rotterdam. Sinner holds a 2-0 h2h advantage against Popyrin and expect this to be easy work for the second seed.

Quarter-final: Jakub Mensik

An interesting round of 16 clash awaits, as Sinner might meet the hard-hitting Jakub Mensik. The 2025 Miami Open champion displayed glimpses of return to form at the recently concluded Australian Open, where he reached the fourth round, but was forced to forfeit due to injury.

The Czech possesses a formidable serve, and can challenge the Italian. This will be the duo’s first ever meeting, adding to the excitement.

Semi-final: Alexander Bublik / Jiri Lehecka / Arthur Fils

Alexander Bublik is projected to reach the semi-finals and meet Sinner. The Kazakh is one of the few players not named Carlos Alcaraz, to have won against the Italian. He did so last year on grass, but went on to lose their following two meetings, with both happening on hard courts.

Jiri Lehecka was a semi-finalist in Doha last year, and registered a memorable win over Alcaraz. However, he is yet to win against Sinner, trailing by 0-3 in their rivalry.

Arthur Fils, returning after missing the second half of 2025 through injury, is another player capable of reaching the semifinals, but he may lack the match fitness needed to seriously challenge Sinner at such a late stage of the tournament.

Final: Carlos Alcaraz / Daniil Medvedev / Andrey Rublev / Karen Khachanov

Any other result than a Qatar Open 2026 final between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik would be a welcome surprise. The pair have dominated the tour in events where they have competed, and with no Novak Djokovic, the competition for these two has reduced massively.

Should they meet, it will be their first clash in the 2026 season, with the Spaniard currently leading in this rivalry by 10-6.

Daniil Medvedev enjoyed a decent Australian swing but suffered an exit in the very first round of Rotterdam. He is unlikely to reach the title clash, and even if he does, Sinner should prevail comfortably, despite their history of close matches.

Defending champion Andrey Rublev and Karen Khachanov are the other potential contenders to reach the championship match.

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