Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Bublik prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: US Open 2025

Can Alexander Bublik stun a shaky Jannik Sinner in New York or will the top seed steady his game to reach the quarterfinals?

Jannik Sinner battled past Denis Shapovalov 5-7, 6-4, 6-3, 6-3 to secure a place in the US Open 2025 fourth round, marking his appearance in the last 16 of every Grand Slam this season.

Despite an uncharacteristic display with 36 unforced errors, five double faults, and a modest 58% first-serve rate, the World No. 1 recovered from a set down and a potential double-break deficit in the third set to win 12 of the final 15 games.

The defending champion was far from his best, and despite the victory showed signs of vulnerability against Shapovalov. For a top player like Sinner, who loves playing on hard courts, missing out on easy winners and unable to take toll of advantageous positions seem strange.

The Italian later admitted, “I’m not a machine… I also struggle sometimes,” but credited his mental strength for turning the match around after a slow start as he keeps his title defense hopes alive.

Match details

• Tournament: US Open 2025 
• Round: Round 4
• Date: September 1
• Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, New York
• Surface: Hard Court

Also Read: Five records Jannik Sinner can break at US Open 2025

Preview

Alexander Bublik battled past Tommy Paul in a five-set thriller to reach the US Open fourth round for the first time, winning 7-6(5), 6-7(4), 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-1 in a match that finished after 1 a.m. in New York. The Kazakh fired 22 aces, won 83% of first-serve points and held off all but one of 12 break points to outlast the 14th seed and earn a clash with World No. 1 Jannik Sinner in the last 16.

Bublik, who trails Sinner 2-4 in their h2h, has claimed two of their past three meetings, including a grass-court win in Halle this year. The Kazakhstani acknowledged the challenge ahead, admitting he has yet to topple the Italian in a five-set format but remains confident in his powerful serve and tactical variety to trouble the top seed at Flushing Meadows.

Form

• Jannik Sinner: W-W-W-L-W
• Alexander Bublik: W-W-W-W-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 6
• Jannik Sinner: 4
• Alexander Bublik: 2

Stats

Jannik Sinner

• Sinner has a 34-4 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Sinner has a 19-5 win-loss record in New York.
• Sinner has won 80% of the matches played on hard courts

Alexander Bublik

• Bublik has a 38-17 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Bublik has a 7-6 win-loss record at the US Open
• Bublik has won 56% of the matches played on hard courts

Also Read: US Open 2025: All you need to know about prize money & points on offer

Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Bublik: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Sinner -2300, Bublik +1200
• Spread: Sinner -7.5 (+107), Bublik +7.5 (-134)
• Total Games: Over 31.5 (-120), Under 32.5 (-115)
• 1st Set Winner: Sinner -590, Bublik +400
• 1st Set Total Games: Over 9.5 (-120), Under 9.5 (-105)

Match prediction

Bublik’s unorthodox game style, combined with his unpredictability can easily throw off even the best of players on tour. The Kazakh with his depth and variety can create trouble for the top seed, however he needs to be at the top of his mark with no scope for errors.

Like Grigor Dimitrov did at SW19, when he nearly pulled off a staggering upset, Bublik needs to continue to serve the way he has been doing in this tournament so far. The 28-year-old is the only man to not have been broken on serve so far. Sinner has not seemed his ruthless and dominating self so far, but he is expected to rise to the occasion as the tournament heads into its business stage.

The top seed always seems to find a way in Slams, but a Bublik upset could potentially open the doors for a new Grand Slam champion.

Result: Jannik Sinner to win in four sets.

Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Bublik, fourth-round match at 2025 US Open?

Indian viewers can watch the US Open 2025 fourth-round clash between Jannik Sinner and Alexander Bublik on the Star Sports network and streamed via JioHotstar.

UK fans can watch on Sky Sports Tennis, the Sky Sports+ app, or stream with a NOW TV Sports Pass. In the USA, coverage will be on ESPN platforms—ESPN2, ESPNEWS, and ESPN+ across all rounds.

For full worldwide broadcast details click here

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