Jasmine Paolini vs Maria Sakkari prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Madrid Open 2025

Paolini downed Boulter to set a date with the rejuvenated Sakkari.

Jasmine Paolini prevailed comfortably over Katie Boulter in straight sets in the second round at Madrid Open 2025. The Italian announced herself to the world stage with an excellent showing last year on clay, including a final appearance at the Roland Garros. Her best outing in Madrid came last year, when she reached the fourth round.

After a slow start to the season. the World No #5 has slowly started finding her feet, as she enters the Madrid Open 2025, on the back of consecutive semi-final finishes, at Miami and Stuttgart.

Match details

• Tournament: Madrid Open 2025
• Round: Third round
• Date: April 27
• Venue: Manzanares Park, Madrid, Spain
• Surface: Clay

Preview

Maria Sakkari has participated in 13 tournaments prior to the Madrid Open, and is yet to win more than two games in one event. A shocking stat for the Greek, and she would be desperate to end this jinx, with a victory over Paolini.

Though the head-to-head between these two players is tied at 1-1, Sakkari last defeated the Italian in 2021. Sakkari’s start to this tournament has been promising, beating Wang Xinyu and 26th seed Magda Linette in straight sets. Having reached the semi-finals at the Manzanares Park in 2023, Sakkari certainly has a better idea of the conditions on offer in Madrid.

But the challenge for Sakkari has been taking on top ranked players. Her past few losses came against higher ranked players like Qinwen Zheng, Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff. Now, coming up against fifth seed Paolini, Sakkari will face similar challenges and look to end this losing streak, thereby confirming a round of 16 berth.

Also Read: Madrid Open 2025: All you need to know about prize money & points on offer

Form

• Jasmine Paolini: W-L-W-W-W
• Maria Sakkari: W-W-L-W-L

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 2
• Jasmine Paolini: 1
• Maria Sakkari: 1

Stats

Jasmine Paolini

• Paolini maintains a 16-7 win-loss record in 2025. 
• Paolini has a 3-4 win-loss record in Madrid.
• Paolini has won 60% of matches played on clay courts.

Maria Sakkari

• Sakkari maintains a 9-13 win-loss record in 2025. 
• Sakkari has a 13-8 win-loss record in Madrid.
• Sakkari owns a 60% win record on clay.

Jasmine Paolini vs Maria Sakkari: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Paolini -275, Sakkari +250.
• Spread: Paolini -4.5 (+104), Sakkari +4.5 (-120). 
• Total games: Over 20.5 (-120), Under 21.5 (-133).

Match Prediction

Jasmine Paolini’s ability to seamlessly transition from defense to offense, and vice versa, makes her a formidable opponent on clay. Her dominant win over Katie Boulter, dropping just three games en route to victory, highlights why the Italian is regarded as one of the best clay-court players of her generation.

Meanwhile, Sakkari, who has struggled against top-tier opponents this season, could be staring at yet another defeat and will need to produce high-quality tennis if she hopes to break her losing streak.

Result: Paolini will win in three sets.

Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of Jasmine Paolini vs Maria Sakkari, third-round match at Madrid Open 2025?

The third-round match between Jasmine Paolini and Maria Sakkari will be broadcast on the Tennis Channel for viewers in India and the United States. Meanwhile, Sky Sports will air the tournament in the United Kingdom. 

For more updates, follow Khel Now on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram; download the Khel Now Android App or IOS App and join our community on Whatsapp & Telegram