Rafael Nadal’s projected path to final at Madrid Open 2024

Published at :April 26, 2024 at 1:04 PM

Modified at :May 8, 2024 at 6:37 AM

(Courtesy : @rolandgarros/Twitter)

Rafael Nadal will face 16-year-old Darwin Blanch in his first match in Madrid.

After Rafael Nadal’s hip injury flared during the 2023 Australian Open, the Spaniard decided to opt for surgery and take proper time out for recovery. Unfortunately, when Nadal returned to hardcourt in Australia in January, he again sustained an injury. As a result, he was sidelined for almost three more months.

Last week, Rafael Nadal returned to clay with the ATP 500 Barcelona Open. However, his comeback to the red soil was short-lived, as he lost to Alex de Minaur in the second round. Nadal enters the Madrid Open’s main draw with a protected ranking (PR). Apart from Nadal, Canada’s Denis Shapovalov has also participated via PR.

Nadal has been the most successful player at the Madrid Open. The Spaniard has played the most finals in the tournament, eight, winning five titles. After Nadal, Novak Djokovic has managed to lift the silverware on three occasions. Before stepping into the 2024 Roland Garros, Rafael Nadal would be looking forward to claiming his sixth title in the Spanish capital. Hence, let’s take a look at the Spaniard’s potential path to the final in the ATP 500 event:

Rafael Nadal’s projected path to Madrid Open 2024 final

Round of 128: Darwin Blanch

Rafael Nadal is set to start his campaign against 16-year-old Darwin Blanch, the new Kid on the block.

Blanch’s current ATP ranking is 1028 and the young American tennis star has a brilliant opportunity to record a win over the 22-time Grand Slam champion. However, it is unlikely to happen, as Nadal can outplay Darwin Blanch comfortably.

Round of 64: Alex de Minaur

Alex de Minaur defeated Nadal in the second round of the 2024 Barcelona Open in straight sets. Again, the Australian tennis star is expected to face the former World No. 1 in the Spanish capital. In the last couple of years, the two have faced each other twice, and both matches have been won by the Aussie. However, at the 2024 Madrid Open, the Spaniard might have his best chance to beat de Minaur.

Round of 32: Frances Tiafoe

Frances Tiafoe is best known for his praiseworthy performance in the 2022 US Open, where he reached the semifinals. However, afterwards, the American has failed to perform consistently, and this year, he’s utterly out of form. He was eliminated in the second round of the Indian Wells tournament, while Tsitsipas ended his campaign in the round of 32 at the Miami Open.

Earlier this month, Tiafoe reached the final of ATP Houston, where he suffered a disappointing defeat against countryman Ben Shelton. Tiafoe defeated Nadal once in their meeting, and that came during his heroic 2022 US Open campaign. However, on clay, Nadal has been more lethal compared to Tiafoe.

Round of 16: Stefanos Tsitsipas

Stefanos Tsitsipas has already won the 2024 Monte Carlos Masters and reached the final of the Barcelona Open, where he lost against two-time Roland Garros runner-up Casper Ruud. Tsitsipas is currently in brilliant form as the French Open is getting closer, and he would be keen to get a confidence boost by defeating former World No. 1 Rafael Nadal at his territory.

Quarter-final: Daniil Medvedev

The rivalry between Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal has always been intriguing. The 2021 US Open champion has been seeded third at the 2024 Madrid Open following Novak Djokovic’s withdrawal. Hence, if the King of Clay manages to reach the last eight, he is most likely to be up against former ATP World No. 1 Daniil Medvedev. The Russian tennis star would surely be keen to take revenge for the 2022 Australian Open final.

Semi-final: Jannik Sinner/Casper Ruud

Jannik Sinner had a brilliant hardcourt season as he won the Australian Open, ATP Rotterdam and the Miami Open. He also reached the semi-final of the Monte Carlo Masters, where he lost against Stefanos Tsitsipas. The Italian tennis star has already stunned Novak Djokovic on hard court, and his target can be Rafael Nadal on the red soil.

Interestingly, the two have faced each other three times, and all their meetings have taken place on clay, Nadal has won all three matches without dropping a single set.

On the other hand, Casper Ruud recently won his first ATP 500 event at the Barcelona Open, where he defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas. Nevertheless, the Norwegian star also shares the same story with the King of Clay. Casper Ruud is yet to win a set against Rafael Nadal.

Final: Carlos Alcaraz

If Carlos Alcaraz’s fitness lets him play with full strength, the 20-year-old is likely to secure a spot in the final. The defending champion already has two Madrid Open titles, and he’s keen to equal Novak Djokovic’s record by winning another. Alcaraz will surely face the likes of Holger Rune, Alexander Zverev, and Hubert Hurkacz on his route to the final.

However, on his day, the 20-year-old becomes unbeatable, as we have seen in the past few years. Nadal and Alcaraz have faced each other three times, and Rafael Nadal leads the head-to-head record by 2-1. Interestingly, they met for the last time in the quarterfinals of the 2022 Madrid Open, where Alcaraz won 6-2, 1-6, 6-3. If the two manage to make it to the final, it will result in a worthy contest.

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