Naomi Osaka vs Victoria Mboko prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Canadian Open 2025

Naomi Osaka vs Victoria Mboko is the first time since 1979; two unseeded players will clash for the title.

Naomi Osaka is playing in the finals of a big-ticket event for the first time since reaching the title round of the 2022 Miami Open. Osaka moved into the finals of the Canadian Open by putting an end to Clara Tauson’s fairy-tale run, winning 6-2, 7-6(7) in the last four stage of the 2025 Canadian Open.

Tauson’s cinderella run may be over, but Mboko’s is very much alive. The 18-year-old Canadian set up an enticing final with Osaka when she defeated Elena Rybakina in the semi-finals 1-6, 7-5, 7-6(4) in two hours and 46 minutes.

For the Kazakh, it was her third loss of the season in a semi-final. Just as in Washington, the No. 9 seed squandered an opening set lead to end up on the losing side.

Victoria Mboko will be playing her maiden WTA 1000 final, while Osaka is in her first Canadian Open final and her fifth at the WTA 1000 level overall.  Her last WTA 1000 title came in 2019 at the China Open.

Match details

• Tournament: Canadian Open 2025 
• Round: Final
• Date: August 8
• Venue: Sobeys Stadium, Toronto, Canada
• Surface: Hard Court

Preview

The championship round clash between Naomi Osaka and Victoria Mboko is only the third time in the Open Era that two unseeded players find themselves in the finals of the Canadian Open. The last time this happened was in 1979.

Osaka has reeled off four straight set victories since winning the three-setter against Liudmila Samsonova. Tauson almost took the match into a decider when she was 6-4 up in the second set tie-break. However, Osaka fought back to win five of the next six points to win the tie-break 9-7 and move into her first final in three years. 

On the other side of the net will be Mboko. The unseeded wildcard defeated three former women’s singles Grand Slam champions en route to the final – Sofia Kenin, Coco Gauff and Elena Rybakina.

Also Read: Top five oldest women’s singles champions at Canadian Open

Form

• Naomi Osaka: W-W-W-W-W
• Victoria Mboko: W-W-W-W-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 0
• Naomi Osaka: 0
• Victoria Mboko: 0

Stats

Naomi Osaka

• Osaka has a 27-11 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Osaka has a 11-5 win-loss record in Canada.
• Osaka has won 68% of matches played on hard courts.

Victoria Mboko

• Mboko has an 18-7 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Mboko is making her debut in Canada.
• Mboko has won 60% of matches played on hard courts.

Also Read: Canadian Open 2025: All you need to know about prize money & points on offer

Naomi Osaka vs Victoria Mboko: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Osaka -156, Mboko +150.
• Spread: Osaka -2.5 (-115), Mboko +2.5 (+100). 
• Total Games: Over 21.5 (-120), Under 21.5 (-109).
• 1st Set Winner: Osaka -140, Mboko +128.
• 1st Set Total Games: Over 8.5 (-295), Under 9.5 (-134)

Match prediction

Experience takes on youth in the finals of the 2025 Canadian Open.

Mboko will seek to be the third wildcard champion in Canada since the Open Era began in 1968. Monica Seles was the first to achieve the feat in 1995, followed by Simona Halep twenty years later in 2015.

Mboko shrugged off a medical timeout to exact revenge against Rybakina for her loss in Washington, DC. The Canadian will rise to at least a career-high of No. 34 in the revised rankings from outside the top 300 at the start of the 2025 season.  

A place in the top 30 is assured if Mboko wins the final. For Osaka, a return to the top 30 is a given, even if she goes no further. The former World No. 1 will return to the top 20 if she defeats Mboko in the finals. 

Replacing her coach appears to have effected a change in Osaka’s fortunes—for the better. While the result seems to be too close to call, Mboko is likely to run out of steam against an in-form Osaka.

Fatigue will be a factor after the young Canadian played the longest match of the tournament in her semi-final against Elena Rybakina.

Result: Naomi Osaka to win in three sets.

Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of Naomi Osaka vs Victoria Mboko, semi-final match at Canadian Open 2025?

The finals between Naomi Osaka and Victoria Mboko will be available on the Tennis Channel for Indian viewers. Tennis Channel is also the official broadcaster for the 2025 Canadian Open in the United States, while Sky UK takes over in the United Kingdom.

Full broadcast details here

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