Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti final prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Hellenic Championship 2025

Novak Djokovic is chasing a second title of the season.

Lorenzo Musetti quelled a spirited challenge from American Sebastian Korda in three sets to keep his ATP Finals 2025 qualification hopes alive. The Italian saved a match point en route to his 6-0, 5-7, 7-5 win over Korda after spending two hours, 20 minutes on court.

Musetti made a fast start, claiming the first set in just 21 minutes with three breaks of serve. By defeating Korda to go up 3-2 in their head-to-head, the 23-year-old Musetti is on the verge of a debut appearance at the season finale in his home country.

The semi-final contest in Athens went down to the wire, with Musetti surviving a match point at 4-5 in the third set. The No. 2 seed advanced to his third final of the season when Korda’s forehand sailed long.

MUSETTI IN FINALEEE ✨🇮🇹Lorenzo supera in tre set il numero 52 del ranking Sebastian Korda e conquista un posto in finale ad Atene, dove affronterà Novak Djokovic in una sfida decisiva per la qualificazione alle Finals 👀#EurosportTennis #HC25 #Musetti pic.twitter.com/Sn8SSoNmnL

— Eurosport IT (@Eurosport_IT) November 7, 2025

The Italian has unfinished business in Athens, where he must now find a way past Novak Djokovic and lift the trophy at the ATP 250 event to qualify for the ATP Finals. Should Musetti win, he will replace Felix Auger-Aliassime in the eighth and final qualifying spot in the ATP Live Race to Turin.

Djokovic leads the Italian 8-1 in their career head-to-head. Musetti is also chasing his first tour-level win since Naples in 2022.

The Serbian eased into his third final of the season with a straight-set take-down of German qualifier Yannick Hanfmann.

Djokovic dropped serve for the first time this week, yet crossed the finish line in emphatic fashion. The 38-year-old scripted the 6-3, 6-4 victory in just 79 minutes to go up 3-0 against the German in their head-to-head.

Le Djoker sera au rendez-vous de la finale du tournoi familial #HomeOfTennis https://t.co/PREj6w7lVK pic.twitter.com/GuaRlDIc2v

— Eurosport France (@Eurosport_FR) November 7, 2025

​Match details

• Tournament: Hellenic Championship 2025
• Round: Finals
• Date: Saturday, November 8
• Venue: Athens, Greece
• Surface: Hard​​ Court Indoors

Also Read: Novak Djokovic quashes reports about his participation at ATP Finals 2025; says no decision made yet

​Preview  

It has been a week of close calls for Musetti as he attempts to claim the title at the inaugural Hellenic Championship being played in Greece. The Italian was two points from defeat in the second round against Swiss veteran Stan Wawrinka.

Musetti once again found himself on the brink of elimination against Seb Korda before he rallied to defeat the American and book his place in the finals.

The good news is that Musetti is now a win away from a spot in Turin. But to get there, he will have to defeat Djokovic, who is gunning for his 101st tour title and second of the season after Geneva. It’s the Serb’s third title round appearance in 2025.

Djokovic is yet to drop a set this week despite coming close. The Serb was involved in two tiebreaks in successive rounds against Alejandro Tabilo and then with Nuno Borges. A chance to continue his dominance over Musetti awaits in what will be the former World No. 1’s 95th hard-court final.

The 24-time Grand Slam champion has yet to confirm whether he will play in Turin despite qualifying for the season finale, even as the fate of Musetti’s efforts to make the cut hangs by a thread.

Here for it. 🤩Musetti playing for his Turin debut 😬 Djokovic hunting title No.101 & 9th win in 10 vs the Italian 👊#HellenicChampionship pic.twitter.com/rY59Vrml6k

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) November 7, 2025

Form

• Novak Djokovic: W-W-W-L-W
• Lorenzo Musetti: W-W-W-L-L

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 9
• Novak Djokovic: 8
• Lorenzo Musetti: 1

Stats

Novak Djokovic

• Djokovic has a 38-11 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Djokovic has won his last five meetings against Musetti
• Djokovic has won 84% of matches played on hard courts

Lorenzo Musetti

• Musetti has a 44-19 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Musetti has lost his last five matches against Djokovic
• Musetti has won 49% of matches played on hard courts

Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Djokovic -200, Musetti +178
• Spread: Djokovic -2.5 (-124), Musetti +2.5 (-104)
• Total Games: Over 22.5 (-130), Under 23.5 (-130)
• 1st Set Winner: Djokovic -177, Musetti  +140
• 1st Set Total Games: Over 9.5 (-167), Under 9.5 (+130)

Match prediction

Djokovic will look to lift the trophy in his new home in Saturday’s final at the expense of Musetti. The Italian has played solid tennis all week as he pursues the sole remaining spot for the 2025 ATP Finals. Musetti would like to seal the deal after coming so close.  

The Serb will have other ideas and will have plans to deny Musetti the title as he inches closer to Roger Federer’s tally of 103 tour-level titles. Djokovic, the World No. 5, is an imposing hurdle in Musetti’s path to the title, and the Italian had to endure a stressful week in Athens after finding himself on the brink of elimination twice.

Musetti trailing Djokovic 8-1 in their head to head places him on the back foot even before the match begins.  

​Result: Djokovic to win in three sets.

​Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti final match at Hellenic Championship 2025?

The summit clash will be available for Indian viewers on Tennis TV. Meanwhile, American and British viewers can tune into the Tennis Channel and Sky UK respectively for live action from Athens.

Full broadcast details live here

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