Novak Djokovic's projected path to ATP Shanghai Masters 2024 final

The Serb received a first-round bye to begin his Shanghai Masters 2024 campaign.

Novak Djokovic will play the Shanghai Masters event for the first time since 2019. That year, he reached as far as the last eight before losing to Stefanos Tsitsipas.

When the Serb made a third-round exit at the US Open 2024, Djokovic ended the Grand Slam season without a trophy for the second time since 2010. Until 2024, Djokovic had won a major every season, with the 2017 season being the exception.

Being the fourth seed at the ATP Shanghai Masters 2024 means Djokovic is slotted in the bottom half of the draw along with the likes of Frances Tiafoe, Andrey Rublev, Alexei Popyrin, Taylor Fritz and Alexander Zverev — all tricky customers when the going is good.

The silver lining is that he will not run into Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz until the title round. The two players have divided the 2024 majors among themselves and defeated the Serb when they met. Sinner overcame Djokovic in Melbourne, while Alcaraz took the win at SW19.

Djokovic’s dominant run in Shanghai — he hasn’t lost before the quarter-final stage and is 4-0 in finals at the venue — could work in his favour and nudge his tour-level title wins into three digits. A 41st ATP 1000 and fifth Shanghai Masters title could materialise for the champion when the curtains fall.  The former World No. #1 is currently on 99.  Djokovic, with the other top 10 seeds, has been given a bye into the second round.

Novak Djokovic’s projected path to ATP Shanghai Masters 2024 final

Second Round: Alex Michelsen/Yunchaokete Bu

Michelsen came within a match of winning his first ATP-level tournament at Winston-Salem. While he lost in straight sets to Lorenzo Sonego, Michelsen made it into the top 50, making the debut at No. #49. His breakthrough was reaching the second round at Flushing Meadows in August, where he bowed out to Sinner.

The in-form Yunchaokete Bu defeated No. #23 Karen Khachanov in Hangzhou when he was ranked No. #124 en route to his first semi-final appearance. He continued his ascent, stealing a win over Paris bronze medallist Lorenzo Musetti to march into the quarterfinals in Beijing.

Bu’s victory over Musetti gave him his first ATP top 20 win in only his third ATP-level main draw appearance. He then did one better and defeated Rublev to earn his maiden win over a top 10 ranked player. The young Chinese also made his top 100 debut a week ago, coming in at No. #96.

Both players are heading into a potential first-ever career meeting against Djokovic.

Third Round: Stan Wawrinka/Flavio Cobolli

Tour veterans Wawrinka and Djokovic have crossed paths frequently in their storied careers. The latter in the head-to-head lead against Wawrinka by 21-6. Eleven of those meetings came at Masters events, Djokovic winning them all. The duo are yet to meet in Shanghai.

Wawrinka had rallied to defeat Djokovic in the 2015 French Open, leaving the Serb one major title short of the coveted calendar slam. Djokovic had won the other three Grand Slams that year.

It will be the first meeting for Cobolli and Djokovic on the tour. The 22-year-old Italian stretched Sebastian Korda at the ATP 500 event in Washinton. Though he missed out on his maiden triumph, he entered the top 50 that week and a career-high of No. #31 following a round of 16 appearance at the Cincinnati Masters.

Also Read: Top five players who have withdrawn from ATP Shanghai Masters 2024

Fourth Round: Frances Tiafoe/Alexander Bublik

Djokovic holds the psychological edge over both potential fourth-round rivals. The Serb leads Tiafoe 2-0 and Bublik 1-0 in their head-to-head records. However, it has been two years since Djokovic last faced Tiafoe and three since he crossed paths with Bublik.

Since his loss to Djokokovic, Tiafoe has gone on to win two ATP titles in Houston and Stuttgart, both coming in 2023. Following his win in Stuttgart in June 2023, Tiafoe entered the top 10 of the ATP rankings for the first time.

For Bublik, all four titles came after his 2021 clash with Djokovic. The most recent of the wins was the ATP 250 event at Montpellier in 2024, resulting in a career-high ranking of No. #17.

Quarter-final: Andrey Rublev/Alexei Popyrin

Despite a 5-1 lead over Rublev, the Russian stretched Djokovic on three of the six occasions they have met. Not one to throw the towel in easily, Rublev took the Serbian to four sets in the Wimbledon quarterfinals and three sets in the Paris Masters semi-final in 2023.

Recently, Alexei Popyrin turned the story around in his head-to-head with Djokovic. In the third round of the 2024 US Open, it was Popyrin with the win. The result mirrored the scoreline at Wimbledon, only this time, the Aussie prevailed two months after losing a closely fought four-setter.  

A possible run-in with Francisco Cerundolo will bring back memories of the 2024 French Open fourth round for Djokovic. The former World No. #1 took five sets and close to four and a half hours to subdue the plucky Argentine.

Semi-final: Taylor Fritz/Alexander Zverev

Djokovic would pick playing Fritz in the semis. After all, the Serb enjoys a 9-0 lead over the American in their head-to-head. Only twice has Fritz been a threat to the former World No. #1, with the event being the Australian Open both times. The first occasion came in 2021, with Frtiz extending Djokovic to five sets. The second was in 2024; this time, the American took the match to four sets.

The head-to-head lead against Zverev tapers off, currently standing at 8-4 in Djokovic’s favour. When it comes to ATP 1000 events, the lead is revised to 2-1. Coming to their most recent meeting in Cincinnati, the former World No. #1 prevailed in straight sets.

Fritz and Zverev have been consistent performers in 2024 — Zverev has 57 wins this season and the Rome Masters title in the bag. The German also reached the Roland Garros final and the title round in Hamburg, equalling his all-time high ranking of No. #2, which he last claimed in August 2022.

Fritz broke new ground by becoming the first three-time winner at Eastbourne and the first American finalist at Flushing Meadows since Andy Roddick. With the final run in New York, along came the ATP No. #7 position, two shy of his career-best of No. #5.

Final: Jannik Sinner/Carlos Alcaraz

It will be like old times should Djokovic advance to the final and his potential combatants Sinner and Alcaraz join him there. In the short yet intense meetings spread over three years, there have been 14 duels in all between the trio.

While Djokovic has a 4-3 lead against Sinner and Alcaraz, recently, he has struggled against the two younger players.

Sinner has a 3-2 advantage in the last five tussles against the Serb since 2023. The Italian defeated Djokovic in Melbourne this year to deny him an 11th Australian Open trophy, also snapping an unbeaten 10-0 run in the semifinals by the Serb. Their sole meeting at a Masters was in 2021, Monte-Carlo, won by Djokovic.

Meanwhile, the 37-year-old lost all three recently played Grand Slam finals against Alcaraz. Though he made amends by winning the Olympic Gold in Paris by defeating Alcaraz in the final, the Serb was on the receiving end of a straight-set defeat at Wimbledon. It was the second straight loss to Alcaraz at SW19 — a venue that gave him seven titles, including four in a row between 2018 and 2022.

Given their recent form, potential finalists Ben Shelton and Arthur Fils could pull off a few surprises in Shanghai.  Both players reached a career-high this season — Fils (20) and Shelton (13) following wins at Hamburg and Houston respectively.

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