Taylor Fritz vs Denis Shapovalov prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Miami Open 2025

Fritz and Shapovalov are headed to their second encounter of the 2025 season.

Third-seed Taylor Fritz got his Miami Open campaign off to a solid start, thanks to a 7-6(2), 6-3 victory over Lorenzo Sonego. The American No. 1 kept his cool to open a 5-0 lead in the opening set tie-break, which he won 7-2. Fritz was again engaged in a battle of nerves before breaking Sonego’s serve in the eighth game of the second set. The 22-minute-long game saw Fritz squander five breakpoint opportunities before closing the game. The 27-year-old Fritz held serve in the next game to complete the win in one hour and 48 minutes.

Denis Shapovalov advanced to the third round of the men’s singles draw with a gritty 6-3, 6-7(1), 7-6(3) win over Argentina’s Thiago Tirante. Shapovalov dug deep to avoid the fate of countryman Felix Auger-Aliassime, who lost in three sets to Lorenzo Musetti on Sunday. The 25-year-old Shapovalov survived against the Argentine qualifier despite serving as many as 11 double faults and making 45 unforced errors.

Also Read: Miami Open 2025: Updated schedule, fixtures, results, live streaming details

Shapovalov, the No. 27 seed, will now take on Fritz for a place in the fourth round. The Canadian made the semi-finals at the venue in 2019, while Fritz was a quarter-finalist in 2023. It will be their eleventh tour-level meeting and the season’s second face-off since the Dallas Open in February.

Match Details

• Tournament: Miami Open 2025 Men’s Singles
• Round: Third round
• Date: March 24
• Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, United States
• Surface: Hard

Also Read: Miami Open 2025: All you need to know about prize money and points on offer

Preview

Taylor Fritz and Denis Shapovalov are slated to renew their rivalry in Miami. At their most recent meeting in Dallas, Shapovalov eliminated the top-ranked American from a set down to win 2-6, 6-3, 7-6(2). The Canadian re-joined the winner’s circle as he claimed the Dallas Open title with a 7-6(5), 6-3 win over Norwegian Casper Ruud in the final.

Fritz and Shapovalov have met only once at this level, with their sole meeting at an ATP Masters event taking place in Miami two years ago. Fritz won their third-round game, 6-4, 6-4.  

Fritz, Frances Tiafoe, and Reilly Opelka are the three local players who have managed to make it to the third round in the top half of the draw. Hong Kong’s Coleman Wong ended Ben Shelton’s hopes of joining his compatriot after a three-set win.

Fritz and Alexander Zverev are the last two top-five seeds in the top half of the men’s draw. On Monday, the American will clash with Shapovalov to remain in the hunt for a second ATP 1000 title since his Indian Wells title run in 2022. 

Form

• Denis Shapovalov: W-W-L-W-L 
• Taylor Fritz: W-W-L-W-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 10
• Denis Shapovalov: 6
• Taylor Fritz: 4

Also Read: Miami Open: Full list of title winners

Stats

Denis Shapovalov:

• Shapovalov has a 13-5  win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Shapovalov has a 13-6 win-loss record in Miami.
• Shapovalov has won 57% of matches played on hard courts.

Taylor Fritz:

• Fritz has a 12-5  win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Fritz has an 11-8 win-loss record in Miami.
• Fritz has won 61% of matches played on hard courts.

Taylor Fritz vs Denis Shapovalov: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Shapovalov +200, Fritz -235.
• Spread: Shapovalov +2.5 (+105), Fritz -2.5 (-132). 
• Total games: Over 22.5 (-145), Under 23.5 (-127).

Match Prediction

The Taylor Fritz-Denis Shapovalov rivalry is well-established on the ATP Tour. The duo’s ten previous meetings have yielded balanced results. However, Canadian broke through earlier by winning their first three meetings. Since 2021, Fritz leads 4-3 in their head-to-head. 

Also Read: Top five players with most titles in women’s singles at Miami Open

At their more recent matchup in Dallas, Shapovalov surprised Fritz at home and handed the American a fifth tie-break loss of the season en route to his maiden ATP 500 title. The 28th-ranked Shapovalov followed up his title run in Texas with a semi-final appearance in Acapulco as he edges closer to re-entering the top 20.  

Fritz has had a bumpy start to the new season, with the 2024 US Open finalist failing to make a title round three months into 2025. It will be a close match, with Shapovalov edging Fritz in an evenly fought contest. 

Result: Shapovalov will win in straight sets.

Where and how to watch the live streaming and TV broadcast of the third-round match between Denis Shapovalov and Taylor Fritz at the Miami Open 2025?

Sony Network will handle the live coverage and streaming of the third-round match between Denis Shapovalov and Taylor Fritz. Sky UK is the official broadcaster in the United Kingdom, while the Tennis Channel fulfills that role within the United States. 

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