Alexander Zverev's projected path to US Open 2024 final

The numbers favour Zverev to make an impression in New York.

Alexander Zverev makes his way to US Open 2024 as the fourth seed. The seeding could work out to his advantage as he will avoid Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz until the finals. A run-in with the defending champion Novak Djokovic will also be kept at bay until the semi-final.

The good fortune from the draw points to a favourable and deep run at Flushing Meadows. Side-stepping Sinner until the title round is the best news for Zverev, as the Italian got the better of him in the Cincinnati Open semi-finals. The Italian World No. #1 is under a cloud following recent events and has also battled physical health issues in recent weeks. Having to play best-of-five sets in the New York humidity won’t help Sinner’s cause.

While Zverev may be without a Grand Slam title in the decade since turning pro in 2013, the German leads the field with 52 match wins in 2024. Zverev is averaging 90% of service game wins and is landing 71% of his first serves in, on hard courts, which makes him a difficult player to beat on the surface. 

The World No. #4 from Germany had a shot at making the final and could take on the competition on any given day.

Alexander Zverev’s projected path to US Open 2024 final

First Round: Emil Ruusuvuori

Finnish player Emil Ruusuvuori and Alexander Zverev are tied at 1-1. Ruusuvuori won the first meeting in 2021 in Miami, while Zverev prevailed at Indian Wells in 2023.

The Finn saw the back of Stefanos Tsitsipas in Wimbledon this year to make the third round of The Championships for the first time. It was also Ruusuvuori’s third Top 20 win after Karen Khachanov and Ugo Humbert.

Second Round: Adam Walton

Unseeded Australian Adam Walton is likely to go up against Alexander Zverev in the second round of his maiden main draw appearance at Flushing Meadows. Walton must get past French wildcard Alexandre Muller before the second-round meeting with Zverev. Should they face off, it will be their first tour-level meeting and the biggest match of Walton’s career.  

The Queensland native climbed into the ATP Top 100 in the rankings from No. #176 in January to his current position of No. #96. A career-high of World No. #86 was reached in the first week of August by the 25-year-old Australian. 

Third Round: Francisco Cerundolo

Francisco Cerundolo is one of only two players outside the ATP Top 20 to beat Zverev in straight sets this season. Cerundolo got the better of Zverev in Madrid when he was ranked No. #22. The other player was the World No. #106 from Chile, Cristian Garin in Munich.

To give credit to Zverev, he brushed off those defeats to win the Rome Masters and make the finals at Roland Garros and Hamburg. A third-round match against the Argentine will allow Zverev to level the head-to-head currently at 0-1 after a straight-set loss in Madrid this season.

Fourth Round: Holger Rune

Zverev and Rune are on a possible fourth-round collision course at Flushing Meadows for the fourth time this season. All their three meetings in 2024 have been won by the German, including one on the hard courts of Montreal.

Rune still has 19 match wins on hard courts this season, narrowly trailing Zverev, who is on 23. However, the Dane has a single win against a Top 10 player in 2024 heading into the US Open. Rune will look to get his eye in when he opens against Brandon Nakashima in the first round.

Quarterfinals: Casper Ruud

Casper Ruud has slid down the rankings from the No. 3 position he occupied at the beginning of 2023. He landed outside the Top 10 briefly between November 2023 and February 2024 before finding his way back in March to the No. 8 position. The Norwegian is in the middle of a slump after a promising first half of the season that saw him pick up titles in Barcelona and Geneva.

The argument in favour of Ruud is his making three Grand Slam finals in the recent past, including at the US Open in 2022 and the 2-0 five-setter record he owns in the ongoing season. With a healthy 44-match win haul and a 4-2 record against the Top 10 in 2024, Ruud could surprise the field with better tennis in New York despite losing four of his last nine matches.

Also Read: Novak Djokovic’s path to US Open 2024 finals

Also Read: Carlos Alcaraz’s projected path to US Open 2024 final

Semifinals: Novak Djokovic

Zverev is seeded to meet Novak Djokovic in the semi-finals of the US Open, where he will be up against a player who leads 8-4 in their career head-to-head. The Serb will be determined to add a 25th Grand Slam title in New York. It will be a win that would make the Serbian the only player, man or woman to reach the milestone and go one clear of Margaret Court’s half-a-century record dating back to 1973. 

Also Read: Five milestones Novak Djokovic can reach at US Open 2024

It will be fitting if Djokovic achieves the feat at Flushing Meadows – the site of Court’s last Grand Slam win. The former World No. #1 is without an ATP title this season, and New York could be where he turns things around after arriving in the city with an Olympic Gold Medal to his name.

Finals: Jannik Sinner

Looking past the recent loss to Sinner at Cincinnati, Zverev has the edge in New York – defeating the Italian in both their meetings in the Big Apple. The first time was in 2021, and the subsequent win came in 2023, both times in the round of 16.

Also Read: Jannik Sinner’s projected path to US Open 2024 final

The duo are natural hard-court players with big serves and consistent strokeplay, with most of their titles coming on their surface. Zverev maintains a slender lead with 14 hard court titles to 13 by Sinner. Heading into New York and ahead of their possible title round clash, it is the German who leads in their career head-to-head 4-2.

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