Hockey Qualification Scenario Explained: Can Indian women's hockey team still qualify for Paris Olympics?

India face Italy in another must-win match, which is their final pool stage clash.

On Sunday, the Indian women’s hockey team triumphed over New Zealand with a score of 3-1 in their second Pool B match in ongoing FIH Hockey Olympics qualifiers, thereby keeping their Olympic dreams alive. The Indian team had previously suffered a disappointing 0-1 defeat against the USA in their inaugural match, putting them in a precarious position. To have a shot at qualifying, they needed to win their remaining matches against New Zealand and Italy. Any loss would have spelled the end of their Paris Olympics journey.

However, India bounced back the next day, defeating New Zealand. The match began with India taking an early lead by scoring a goal in the first minute. New Zealand retaliated with an equalizer in the ninth minute, a PC goal by Hull Megan.

India then netted two consecutive goals, ending the first quarter with a 3-1 lead. They maintained this lead and emerged victorious. The goals for India were scored by Sangita Kumari, Udita, and Beauty Dung Dung. This victory marked India’s first win against New Zealand in 14 years, with their last victory dating back to 2010.

𝗙𝗨𝗟𝗟-𝗧𝗜𝗠𝗘 🏑India beat New Zealand to stay in contention for Paris Olympics qualification!! 🇮🇳⚔️🇳🇿Massive win to keep Paris Olympics dream alive! 💙🙏#Paris2024 #ParisOlympics #FIHOlympicQualifiers #hockey pic.twitter.com/xJntT54aP3

— Khel Now (@KhelNow) January 14, 2024

India are set to play against the lower-ranked team, WR 19 Italy, in their final group-stage match on Tuesday (January 16). Italy, having lost both their league matches, are essentially out of the tournament.

The top three teams will secure a spot in the Olympics. With the USA’s victory over Italy, the group dynamics have become more intriguing, and goal difference could determine which team advances to the semifinals.

India currently holds the third position in the points table with three points. The USA lead the table with six points from two victories in two matches, while New Zealand, with three points, are in second place due to a higher goal scored count than India.

Let’s Look at the scenarios for India to qualify for the semifinals, viz-a-viz book a berth for Paris Olympics.

How can Indian women’s hockey team qualify for Paris Olympics?

Scenario 1 – If USA defeat New Zealand

This will be the best-case scenario for India to qualify for the semifinals as a win or draw against Italy will be enough to overtake New Zealand and qualify for the semis. USA will top the group and India will finish second thus advancing to the next stage. New Zealand would be out of the tournament.

Scenario 2 – If USA draw with New Zealand

This will also help India as a win against Italy will be sufficient for the Women in Blue to qualify for the semifinals. India might as well top the group if they can score at least more goals than USA.

Scenario 3 – If New Zealand defeat USA

In this scenario, the situation becomes intriguing as it hinges on the goal difference. Currently, the USA possess a GD of +3, India have a GD of +1, and New Zealand also have a GD of +1.

Therefore, a victory over Italy with a margin of two goals will suffice for India, regardless of the outcome of the New Zealand vs USA match. Even a win by a single goal could be enough, but that would depend on the result of the other match.

Upon advancing to the semifinals, India will compete against either Germany or Japan in the semifinals, which will be determined by the team’s final standings. The top three teams will secure their spots in the Paris Olympics. Hence, a victory in the semis will ensure India’s qualification for the Olympics. However, if India suffers a loss in the semi-final, they will need to triumph in the bronze medal match to qualify for the Olympics.

For more updates, follow Khel Now on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram; download the Khel Now Android App or IOS App and join our community on Whatsapp & Telegram