Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Madrid Open 2025

Musetti and Minaur clash again after their intense duel in Monte Carlo.

A re-match of the Monte Carlo 2025 semi-finals is set to take place in Madrid, as Alex de Minaur and Lorenzo Musetti will be looking to confirm their quarter-final spot. Musetti, returning from injury, began from where he left in Monte-Carlo, resuming his incredible run.

Likewise, de Minaur too has dominated his field so far, with both players yet to drop a set. When these two met a couple of weeks back, the Australian destroyed the Italian in the first set. But Musetti staged a stunning comeback, to emerge victorious in a deciding tiebreak.

Match details

• Tournament: Madrid Open 2025
• Round: Fourth round
• Date: April 30
• Venue: Manzanares Park, Madrid, Spain
• Surface: Clay

Preview

Musetti’s journey in Madrid has been very similar to that in Monte-Carlo, having defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas in the previous round. The Italian certainly carries a psychological advantage leading into this clash, while de Minaur would be looking to avenge his defeat.

The Australian downed Lorenzo Sonego and Denis Shapovalov in straight sets, with his excellent serving being the talking point and giving de Minaur the tag of a ‘servebot’. He would hope to execute them against Musetti, as a mere 43% success rate on second serves is what led to his defeat two weeks back against the Italian.

The conditions are extremely similar to Monte Carlo, but the high altitude, and arguably the fastest clay courts on tour could play in the hands of Alex de Minaur, who prefers the ball coming quicker to the racquet. While Musetti will hope to sustain his fabulous form, and de Minaur will aim to return the favour.

Also Read: Top five youngest men’s singles players to win Madrid Open

Form

• Alex de Minaur: W-W-L-W-W
• Lorenzo Musetti: W-W-L-W-W

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 3
• Alex de Minaur: 1
• Lorenzo Musetti: 2

Stats

Alex de Minaur

• Minaur has a 24-8 win-loss record in 2025
• Minaur has a 6-5 win-loss record in Madrid
• Minaur owns a 48% win record on clay

Lorenzo Musetti

• Musetti has a 13-5 win-loss record in the 2025 season
• Musetti has a 3-3 win-loss record in Madrid
• Musetti has won 63% of matches played on clay courts

Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Minaur -135, Musetti +120.Spread: Minaur -1.5 (-110), Musetti +1.5 (-107).Total games: Over 21.5 (-127), Under 22.5 (-120).

Match Prediction

The Madrid Open 2025 marks the best ever outing at the tournament for both Lorenzo Musetti and Alex de Minaur. A fascinating encounter is on the cards, with both players showcasing their movement and shot-making prowess earlier in Monte-Carlo. After defeating Stefanos Tsitsipas on Tuesday, Musetti also featured in a doubles match alongside Fabio Cobolli, which ended in defeat.

The Italian returns on Thursday for his Round of 16 clash, but questions around his fitness linger, especially after an injury that kept him out of Barcelona. De Minaur, on the other hand, has spent considerably less time on court and is expected to be the fresher of the two. In what could be a long, grueling contest, physical endurance and the ability to sustain extended rallies may ultimately decide the outcome.

Result: Alex de Minaur to win in three sets.

Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti, fourth-round match at the Madrid Open 2025?

The fourth-round match between Alex de Minaur and Lorenzo Musetti will be live telecast and streamed on the Sony Network in India. Sky UK will broadcast the event across the United Kingdom, while the Tennis Channel will do the same for tennis fans in the United States.

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