Alexander Zverev's projected path to US Open 2026 final

Top seed Alexander Zverev will eye his maiden title at Flushing Meadows

Alexander Zverev arrives in New York in a position he has never quite occupied before at a Grand Slam. Jannik Sinner’s late withdrawal due to a knee injury pushed the German up to No. 1 in the draw.

His recent Grand Slam success justifies this position—he won a maiden major title at Roland Garros, followed by a runner-up finish at Wimbledon.

The German’s form dipped the moment the tour moved onto hard courts, though. Zverev fell in the opening round in Montreal to Tallon Griekspoor, then followed it up with a fourth-round exit in Cincinnati, squandering a match point before Tommy Paul turned the contest around in a three-setter.

None of that has cost him his seeding, and on paper this remains the easiest section of the men’s draw, with Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic both stuck on the other side of the bracket.

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On that note, let’s take a look at his potential route to glory at the US Open 2026.

Alexander Zverev’s projected path to US Open 2026 final

Round 1 – Lorenzo Sonego

Alexander Zverev will open his campaign against Lorenzo Sonego, against whom the World No. 2 holds a perfect 6-0 record. With three out of those six wins coming on hard courts, Zverev will look to extend his domination over the Italian with a one-sided victory too begin his run in Flushing Meadows.

​Round 2 – Quentin Halys

Quentin Halys has the power to trouble opponents with flat, early-strike tennis when it clicks, but Zverev’s return and depth off both wings should be enough to see this off comfortably regardless of who comes through.

Related: Carlos Alcaraz’s projected path to US Open 2026 final

Round 3 – Alejandro Tabilo, Grigor Dimitrov, Alexei Popyrin or Yannick Hanfmann

Alejandro Tabilo looks the likeliest of the trio to emerge, and it’s a matchup that should suit Zverev. Though Tabilo’s lefty ball-striking can be a handful, the German has historically handled that style well.

Grigor Dimitrov, coming through qualifying, would be the more eye-catching name if he gets that far, though his body has rarely cooperated for a full fortnight in recent years.

Round 4 – Lorenzo Musetti or Luciano Darderi

This is where the draw starts to get trickier. Lorenzo Musetti reached the quarter-finals in New York last year and has the shot-making to trouble anyone on his day, though his opener against Wimbledon semi-finalist Arthur Fery is no formality either.

Musetti and Zverev have split their head-to-head at 2-2, making this battle extremely intriguing and exciting, should the seedings hold.

Luciano Darderi, the other seed in this section, has been steadier than spectacular this year. Zverev has had the better of most one-handed backhand players on hard courts, and that record should hold here.

​Quarter-final – Alex de Minaur or Rafael Jodar

Alex de Minaur is the obvious favourite to emerge from the bottom half of this quarter, even though he has dropped a few matches lately.

The Australians’ speed and return game have caused Zverev problems before, with De Minaur winning their latest battle back in 2025 at the Laver Cup. Having said that, the overall head-to-head has been dominated by Zverev at 8-3.

If de Minaur suffers a setback, one cannot count out the 19-year-old Rafael Jodar, who recently also reached the French Open quarter-finals.

Semi-final – Felix Auger-Aliassime or Taylor Fritz or Flavio Cobolli

Felix Auger-Aliassime heads this section as the third seed, but Taylor Fritz is the player to watch out for in this round, as he arrives after winning in Washington and reaching the Cincinnati quarter-finals. The American is already a US Open finalist and fancies his best chance to win his maiden major title.

Fritz has over the years dominated Zverev, though he lost in their latest battle. This semi-final contest could prove to be a five-set epic between two familiar rivals, who have met 16 times in the past (Fritz leads H2H by 10-6).

Flavio Cobolli is the other potential contender, though Fritz is fancied to get past him in the fourth round.

Final – Carlos Alcaraz or Ben Shelton or Daniil Medvedev

Novak Djokovic’s stunning first-round exit to Mariano Navone has blown the bottom half wide open, and the identity of Zverev’s potential final opponent is now genuinely up for grabs.

Carlos Alcaraz remains the most dangerous name left in that section, and their rivalry is about as even as they come as the Spaniard edges the head-to-head 7-6 and beat Zverev in a five-set Australian Open semi-final earlier this year. If Alcaraz can recover from his rustiness, the Spaniard will be the undisputed favorite.

Ben Shelton is the one name in this group Zverev has an emphatic hold over, having won all five of their meetings, including a straight set win in Cincinnati last year.

Daniil Medvedev has had a strange season by his own standards and arrives without much momentum, so he is unlikely to reach this far at the 2026 US Open.

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