Carlos Alcaraz's projected path to US Open 2026 final

Carlos Alcaraz has won two US Open titles so far

Carlos Alcaraz‘s return to competitive tennis could not have picked a stranger set of circumstances. The World No. 3 hasn’t played a match since April 14, when he beat Otto Virtanen in the first round in Barcelona just before a wrist injury shut down the rest of his tennis calendar.

That meant no Roland Garros, no Wimbledon, and no hard-court prep at all heading into a tournament where he is defending the title. Still, 2026 has been a year of landmarks for the Spaniard, winning his maiden Australian Open and later the Doha title. He currently sits on a 22-3 record in 2026.

Alcaraz arrives at Flushing Meadows as the two-time US Open champion with a target on his back and a body that hasn’t been tested in four and a half months. His draw is generous, but the real question is whether the rustiness in play and lack of game time will affect his chances.

🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/VafmMzPYvi

— Carlos Alcaraz (@carlosalcaraz) August 29, 2026

Carlos Alcaraz’s potential path to US Open title

Round 1 – Roman Safiullin

Not the gentlest possible starter for a player coming back from a long layoff. Roman Safiullin actually beat Alcaraz the only time they played, back at the 2023 Paris Masters. It’s a true litmus test for the wrist which has just healed, as the Spaniard will look to find his way back at the highest level.

​Round 2 – Jaime Faria or Jenson Brooksby

Jaime Faria is the Portuguese talent who has had a breakout season and the two have never played in the past. Brooksby is the more familiar threat, a player the Spaniard has already beaten once, but the Brit is also someone capable of disturbing any rhythm an opponent tries to build with his unusual timing and shot selection.

Either way, this is still very early days for gauging where Alcaraz’s game actually stands.

Related: List of records Carlos Alcaraz could break at US Open 2026?

Round 3 – Matteo Arnaldi, James Duckworth, Adam Walton, or Yibing Wu

Matteo Arnaldi looks the likeliest name here and Alcaraz has owned this rivalry so far, leading 2-0. Adam Walton carries the same 2-0 record in Alcaraz’s favour, while Yibing Wu has lost their only previous match too. Duckworth is a wildcard entrant. None of these four should worry Alcaraz’s camp, at least on paper.

Round 4 – Alexander Bublik, Tommy Paul, Thiago Tirante, or Adrian Mannarino

This is where the draw gets tricky. Alexander Bublik is capable of playing some of the most unpredictable tennis on tour on his day, though Alcaraz emerged victorious in their sole previous meeting.

Tommy Paul is the more concerning name statistically, as Alcaraz leads 6-2 but Paul has taken sets off him before and thrives on faster hard courts.

Thiago Tirante is the player to watch out for, mainly after his recent heroics in Cincinnati where he reached the quarter-finals.

The Argentine took out Novak Djokovic in the opening round and later beat Jakub Mensik in the round of 16 clash, proving he has the ability to produce his best against top players.

Related: Can Carlos Alcaraz reclaim World No. 1 ranking at US Open?

​Quarter-final – Ben Shelton, Arthur Fils, Jiri Lehecka, or Cameron Norrie

Ben Shelton has always found it tough against Alcaraz, losing all three times when they met. The American arrives on the back of a Canadian Open triumph, but his all-round game has time and again been exposed when taking on the Spaniard.

A far tougher challenge could be presented by recently crowned Cincinnati winner Arthur Fils. The Frenchman has done well to come back from his injury and had recently met Alcaraz in the Doha final, earlier this year. Fils too trails 3-0 in their head-to-head record but could be a genuine threat if Alcaraz is not at his absolute best.

Jiri Lehecka is another potential rival, with Alcaraz leading 3-1 on h2h. The two had met in the final eight last year as well at this stage, but Alcaraz won the clash in straight sets.

Cameron Norrie rounds out the section, who despite trailing 6-3 on head-to-head, could also prove to be a tough test for the reigning champion.

Semi-final – Daniil Medvedev, Frances Tiafoe, or Brandon Nakashima

With Djokovic exiting after a shocking opening-round defeat, Daniil Medvedev is the top favourite to face Alcaraz in the semis and the Spaniard has generally had his number.

The Russian has also been in terrible form lately, suffering shocking defeats in early rounds at every competition since the Italian Open. Moreover, the 2021 US Open champion last reached a Major quarter-final way back in 2023.

Frances Tiafoe and Brandon Nakashima round out the section. Nakashima has been in excellent form lately, but it remains to be seen if he can beat Djokovic to reach the final four.

Final – Alexander Zverev, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Flavio Cobolli, or Alex de Minaur

Top seed Alexander Zverev is seeded to reach the championship match, and this is one of Alcaraz’s closer rivalries, as he leads by 7-6, meaning a Zverev final would be no formality.

Felix Auger-Aliassime was a semi-finalist in the previous edition, but it would be a huge surprise if he reaches the title clash this time around, considering his form in Cincinnati. 2026 Roland Garros finalist Flavio Cobolli and Alex de Minaur could be the other possible opponents.

Getting this far after everything the last four months have looked like for Alcaraz would already be one of the more remarkable stories of the tournament, regardless of who is on the other side of the net.

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