Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina: Which player has the best odds to win US Open 2026?
Aryna Sabalenka takes on Elena Rybakina for the fourth time this year
The US Open 2026 final will see defending champion Aryna Sabalenka of Belarus take on Czech Republic’s Elena Rybakina. However, the women’s draw at Flushing Meadows has been anything but predictable in getting there.
Iga Swiatek bowed out early to a red-hot Qinwen Zheng, who battled through qualifying after a long injury layoff and produced a stunning run that included coming back from 0-5 down not once, but twice.
Naomi Osaka, Karolina Muchova and Belinda Bencic all missed out on the last eight, a stage otherwise dominated by the top six. Mirra Andreeva suffered a heartbreaking defeat to Coco Gauff despite holding match points in the second set, before the American herself went down in a high-octane semi-final to Rybakina.
Linda Noskova pushed Sabalenka to the limit before losing in a final-set tie-break, and the top seed then ended Jessica Pegula’s hopes for a third straight time at the US Open to book her place in the final.
US Open 2026: Odds for women’s singles
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- Aryna Sabalenka: -138 → Bet ₹830 → Win total ₹1,431 (profit ₹601)
- Elena Rybakina: +113 → Bet ₹830 → Win total ₹1,768 (profit ₹938)
Sabalenka goes in as the shorter price, and the numbers back that up. She is chasing a third straight US Open title, a feat only a couple of women have managed in the Open Era, and she reached the final without dropping a set in the semis against Pegula.
Whereas Rybakina’s path here tells a different story. She had to get herself out of trouble against Gauff, as she was broken while serving for the match, before finding the composure to break the American’s serve almost immediately, which says a lot about her nerve when a final was on the line.
The Kazakh arrives having posted the best hard-court win percentage of any woman in the draw this season, and her serve remains arguably the single biggest weapon in the sport.
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The head-to-head leans Sabalenka’s way by 10-7, but it has been a genuinely competitive rivalry rather than a lopsided one, as both have beaten the other at majors before.
The Australian Open 2026 final was an instant classic, with Sabalenka racing to a 3-0 lead in the decider before Rybakina staged a stunning turnaround to clinch the title. In the Indian Wells final, the Belarusian saved match points and went on to win the competition.
The deciding factor of this match will be the first-serve percentage. Rybakina’s entire game is built around it, and when she is above 65%, she becomes almost unbeatable. Sabalenka’s return game is one of the best on tour, but she will still be at the mercy of Rybakina’s serve accuracy.
This contest is tough to call from a betting perspective because the margins are so low. Those who want a higher-risk choice may bet on Rybakina. The Kazakh’s composure under pressure could prove decisive and ultimately pay dividends. On the other hand, Sabalenka’s determination and motivation to win this title make her an equally difficult proposition.
Note: Any betting decision should be made at the individual’s own discretion, and no outcome is guaranteed.