Aryna Sabalenka vs Liudmila Samsonova prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Indian Wells Open 2025

This is the fifth encounter between these two.

World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka has barely broken a sweat in the Indian Wells Open 2025. Her latest victim? Sonay Kartal, dismissed 6-2, 6-0. But her quarterfinal opponent, Liudmila Samsonova, will not be an easy target. The Russian is coming off a demolition job as she took apart 2024 Wimbledon Open finalist Jasmine Paolini 6-0, 6-4 and making sure to be clinically efficient in just over an hour.

Also Read: Top five title favourites in women’s singles at Indian Wells Open 2025

The two last met at the Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati on August 17 last year, where Sabalenka dominated 6-3, 6-2 in the quarterfinals. Can Samsonova flip the script this time, or will Sabalenka’s power prove too much once again? The stakes couldn’t be higher.

Match details

• Tournament: Indian Wells Open 2025
• Stage: Quarter-final
• Date: March 14 (Friday)
• Time: 5:30 AM
• Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California
• Surface: Hard Court (outdoor)

Preview

Aryna Sabalenka came into 2025 with a lot of energy, she started the year with the Brisbane International title. But the Australian Open? That one still stings. She was on the cusp of defending her crown and securing a three-peat in Melbourne before Madison Keys snatched victory in a heartbreaking final.

Since then, the road has been rocky for the Belarussian as she marked early exits in Doha and Dubai, raising questions. But now, in the Indian Wells quarterfinals, the top seed is playing like a woman on a mission, as she has dropped no sets so far. But is she ready for Liudmila Samsonova?

Also Read: Indian Wells Open 2025: Updated schedule, fixtures, results, live streaming details

Liudmila Samsonova has been a quiet disruptor this season. A semifinalist in Adelaide, she arrived in Melbourne hoping for a deep run but fell early to Olga Danilović.

Fast-forwarding to Indian Wells, she is quietly scripting her own success. For the first time in her career, the 25th seed has reached the Indian Wells Quarterfinals, and she’s done it the hard way after taking down Top 15 seeds like Jasmine Paolini and Daria Kasatkina.  

Form

• Aryna Sabalenka: W-W-W-W-L
• Liudmila Samsonova: W-W-W-W-L

Head-to-head record

• Matches – 4
• Sabalenka– 2
• Samsonova– 2

Also Read: Indian Wells Open 2025: All you need to know about prize money and points on offer

Stats

Aryna Sabalenka

• Sabalenka has a 15-3 win-loss record in 2025 so far.
• Sabalenka has a 13-05 win-loss record at Indian Wells.
• Sabalenka reached the finals at Indian Wells in 2023.

Liudmila Samsonova

• Samsanova has a 09-06 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Samsanova has a 06-04 record in Indian Wells.
• Samsanova has already reached her best finish at Indian Wells as she reached the Quarterfinals.

Also Read: Top 10 players to watch at Indian Wells Open 2025

Aryna Sabalenka vs Liudmila Samsonova: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Sabalenka -500, Samsonova +430
• Spread: Sabalenka -5.5 (-120), Samsanova +5.5 (-120)
• Total Games: Over 19.5 (-120), Under 19.5 (-100)

Match Prediction

Aryna Sabalenka has been unstoppable on hard courts, winning four titles and stacking up a 53-10 record over the past year. Her serve? Rock-solid. Her returns? One of the best on tour, breaking opponents at a ruthless 46.6% clip.

But Samsonova? She’s not here to roll over. The Russian can hit big, and her destruction of Jasmine Paolini proves she’s dangerous when she gets in the zone.

Also Read: Top 10 players who have withdrawn from Indian Wells Open 2025

Still, inconsistency has haunted her, 21-21 on hard courts in the past year, a shaky second serve, and a tough loss to Jessica Pegula in Dubai and against Sabalenka’s firepower, she’ll need to be perfect.

Expect Samsonova to come out swinging, maybe even steal a set. But Sabalenka? She’ll adjust, crank up the intensity, and take control. Once she finds her range, she will likely be dictating the play.

Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka will win in three sets.

Where and how to watch the live streaming and TV broadcast of the quarter-final match between Aryna Sabalenka and Liudmila Samsonova at the Indian Wells Open 2025?

Fans in India can watch the quarter-final match between Aryna Sabalenka and Liudmila Samsonova live on WTA TV and Tennis Channel. In the UK, Sky UK will show the Indian Wells tournament, while viewers in the USA can catch the action on Tennis Channel.

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