Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns prediction, betting tips & odds, head-to-head, preview: Madrid Open 2025

Sabalenka survived a scare against Mertens in the third round.

Aryna Sabalenka boasts a sensational record over the last 10 years, having won 70% of her matches. However, in her third round at Madrid Open 2025, she seemed to be in trouble after losing the first set. But the Belarusian reminded everyone why she is the number one ranked player currently, storming her way back into the contest and winning the match.

Sabalenka’s serving stats is a testimony to her incredible run, as the top seed enjoyed an impressive 100% success rate on second serves. The two-time Madrid Open winner and finalist from the last season will now take on Peyton Stearns for a spot in the quarter-finals.

Match details

• Tournament: Madrid Open 2025
• Round: Fourth round
• Date: April 28
• Venue: Manzanares Park, Madrid, Spain
• Surface: Clay

Preview

Peyton Stearns has struggled this season, recording defeats than victories so far. The American displayed her best showdown in Madrid, courtesy a stunning upset against 15th seed Amanda Anisimova. Despite lack of any momentum or signs of consistency so far, Stearns arguably pulled off her career’s biggest win when she defeated seventh seed Qinwen Zheng in Dubai Open’s second round.

An in-form Sabalenka though is a different beast, and can make life very difficult for her rivals. The Belarusian is known for her ruthless game play and hard-striking abilities, which could prove to be a handful for Stearns. The pair faced off just once before in Indian Wells, which was closely contested with Sabalenka prevailing in three sets.

Also Read: Aryna Sabalenka’s projected path to Madrid Open 2025 final

Form

• Aryna Sabalenka: W-W-L-W-W
• Peyton Stearns: W-W-W-L-L

Head-to-head record

• Matches: 1
• Aryna Sabalenka: 1
• Peyton Stearns: 0

Stats

Aryna Sabalenka

• Sabalenka has a 25-5 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Sabalenka has a 19-4 win-loss record in Madrid.
• Sabalenka has won 71% of matches played on clay courts.

Peyton Stearns

• Mertens has a 8-10 win-loss record in the 2025 season.
• Mertens has a 3-1 win-loss record in Madrid.
• Stearns has won 62.2% of matches played on clay courts.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns: Betting tips and odds

• Moneyline: Sabalenka -900, Mertens +770
• Spread: Sabalenka -5.5 (-150), Mertens +6.5 (-134)
• Total games: Over 18.5 (-125), Under 19.5 (-145)

Match Prediction

The World No #1 is firing on all cylinders and remains one of the top contenders for the title. She showcased her dominance in the second round, while her impressive mentality shone through in a gritty third-round win.

With Madrid’s fast clay courts perfectly complementing her powerful game, the Belarusian looks right at home. As she aims to complete a historic three-peat in Madrid, Sabalenka is expected to emerge victorious in this Round of 16 clash.

Result: Sabalenka will win in straight sets.

Where and how to watch live telecast and live streaming of Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns, fourth-round match at Madrid Open 2025?

The fourth-round match between Aryna Sabalenka and Peyton Stearns will be broadcast on the Tennis Channel for viewers in India and the United States. Meanwhile, Sky Sports will air the tournament in the United Kingdom.

For more updates, follow Khel Now on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram; download the Khel Now Android App or IOS App and join our community on Whatsapp & Telegram