Carlos Alcaraz's projected path to Italian Open 2025 final

Carlos Alcaraz has a 21-4 record in the clay-court ATP 1000 ahead of the Italian Open 2025.

Despite not having an ideal start to the 2025 season, Alcaraz has managed to win two titles so far this season. The World No. 3 began the year with a quarter-final appearance at the Australian Open before claiming his maiden trophy at Rotterdam, also his first at an indoor event.

Carlos Alcaraz won his first Monte-Carlo ATP 1000 title in April to kickstart his clay-court campaign. After finishing as runner-up in his home event in Barcelona, he was sidelined from the Madrid Open with a hamstring injury.

The French Open defending champion arrives in the Italian capital after a two-week break. He is seeded third at the event and finds himself in the bottom half of the draw. 

Alex Michelsen, Grigor Dimitrov, Jack Draper, and defending champion Alexander Zverev are in Alcaraz’s half of the draw. With Jannik Sinner returning to the ATP Tour and being the top seed at home, an Alcaraz-Sinner clash will not occur until the championship round.

Despite an injury-related setback at the Barcelona Open finals, a rejuvenated Alcaraz can be considered a serious contender to claim the Italian Open crown. The World No. 3 is on 24-5 this season across all surfaces, with only Alex De Minaur tied with Alcaraz in terms of match wins. Let’s take a look at his potential path to the Italian Open 2025 final.

Round 2 – Yoshihito Nishioka / Dusan Lajovic 

Alcaraz will open in the second round against Yoshihito Nishioka or lucky loser Dusan Lajovic. Lajovic entered the main draw after Jan-Lennard Struff withdrew with an injury to his right leg. 

The change is unlikely to cause the Spaniard much trouble as he holds an edge over both players, 2-0 against Nishioka and 4-0 against Lajovic. Alcaraz is yet to drop a set against either player. Going into his second-round match, Alcaraz has played Lajovic twice on clay. In the event of a Nishioka-Alcaraz match, it will be their first meeting on clay. 

Round 3 – Alex Michelsen / Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Alcaraz is seeded to meet Alex Michelsen or Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the third round. It will be the third seed’s maiden encounter with either player. The 20-year-old Michelsen is fresh from winning a challenger event in Estoril. All that’s missing from the American’s accomplishments is a deep run at the Masters level, making his debut in Rome.

Etcheverry’s familiarity with South American clay courts may not come to his aid. The clay courts at the Foro Italico are known for their slow nature and reward players willing to play the long game.  

Round 4 – Grigor Dimitrov / Lorenzo Sonego

Alcaraz holds a 4-2 win-loss record over Grigor Dimitrov and is tied at 1-1 against Sonego. Ever the competitive player, Bulgaria’s Dimitrov took down Alcaraz in Masters events at Shanghai (2023) and Miami (2024) to register his first two wins against the Spaniard. Dimitrov has been a familiar face at European clay-court events, and the 33-year-old’s experience could be a factor on Italian clay.

Lorenzo Sonego’s home court could pose a challenge for Alcaraz, especially as the Italian has beaten him before. The 29-year-old Sonego overcame Alcaraz in their only ATP 1000 meeting in Cincinnati in 2021 and stretched the No. 3 to four sets at the 2024 Australian Open.

Quarter-final – Jack Draper / Holger Rune

Britain’s Jack Draper (h2h, 3-2) and Norway’s Holger Rune (h2h, 2-2) are a likely hurdle in Alcaraz’s path to a semi-final spot at the 2025 Italian Open. Draper is one of the best-performing players of the season after winning his first Masters 1000 title at Indian Wells and making the title round in Madrid, where he took Ruud to three sets in a closely fought face-off. 

Rune returned to his winning ways with a title run at the Barcelona Open, where he took on Alcaraz in the finals. It was his first win in two years and Rune defeated Alcaraz in their first meeting on clay. Alcaraz will have to be at his best against a confident Rune, who will look to derail the Spaniard’s Italian Open campaign.

Semi-final – Alexander Zverev / Lorenzo Musetti 

Alexander Zverev is the defending champion in Rome and is seeded to clash with Alcaraz in the last four. Both are in a tug-of-war for the ATP No. 2 position, with the ranking changing hands twice since the 2025 season got underway. The German also has a 6-5 record against Alcaraz following his win over the Spaniard at the 2024 ATP Finals.

Lorenzo Musetti made his ATP Top Ten debut despite losing in the Monte-Carlo finals to Alcaraz in their maiden clash. The Italian followed it up by reaching the semi-finals in Madrid, where he lost to Jack Draper.

Musetti managed to give Alcaraz a scare in Monte-Carlo when he won the first set, but eventually lost the match. The 22-year-old Musetti has a 10-2 record on clay this season, the numbers could go in his favor if he faces Alcaraz.

Final – Jannik Sinner / Taylor Fritz / Alex de Minaur

The return of Jannik Sinner raises the possibility of their rivalry being renewed in the title round. Alcaraz was 6-4 in their head-to-head before Sinner’s three-month ban got underway. Their previous ATP 1000-level meetings have all been on hard courts, with the Spaniard leading 3-1. Alcaraz is 2-0 against Fritz and 4-0 against Alex de Minaur.

Sinner’s abilities were never in doubt, but a poor 9-5 record in Rome could hamper his campaign. The Spaniard’s other potential rivals have not fared much better in the Italian capital. Taylor Fritz is at 5-5, and Alex de Minaur has a 4-6 win-loss record at the event.

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